The Indonesian rupiah experienced a volatile day on Thursday (02/06), touching a four-month low in the morning after Indonesia failed to get investment grade status (yet) from global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P). However, at the end of the trading day the rupiah had appreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 13,643 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar today amid uncertainty about an imminent Fed Funds Rate hike.

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Last year Indonesian President Joko Widodo emphasized the importance for Indonesia to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as this free trade deal - one of the world's most ambitious trade deals, covering an area that contributes about 40 percent to total global trade - will make the Indonesian economy more efficient and its exports more competitive (while also expanding the nation's export base). However, there also exist concerns about a possible participation of Indonesia in this free trade deal. One of the concerns involves Indonesia's automotive industry.

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Palm oil shipments from Indonesia surged 20 percent month-on-month to 2.09 million tons in April 2016 (from 1.74 million tons in the preceding month) according to the latest data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki). Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of Gapki, said Indonesia's palm oil exports are supported by declining edible oil output in several countries. High rainfall in Argentina and Brazil disturbed local soy bean harvests, while the US soybean harvest is weak as well. Furthermore, rapeseed harvests in China, India and the European Union are weak too, hence boosting demand for CPO.

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Contrary to expectations, Standard & Poor's (S&P), the most conservative among the world's top three credit rating agencies, maintained Indonesia's sovereign debt rating at BB+ with a positive outlook. The BB+ rating is the highest junk level, one notch below investment grade. S&P left the door open for a future upgrade but the Indonesian government will need to enhance its fiscal performance. Issues that block an upgrade are rising budget deficits in the years ahead and the decline in Indonesia's corporate credit quality.

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