Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to weaken on the first trading day of the week, especially due to negative global market sentiments. China’s Shanghai Composite Index tumbled a staggering 8.48 percent on Monday (27/07), its worst daily percentage fall since February 2007. Furthermore, Wall Street closed broadly lower on Friday (24/07) for the fourth straight day. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah continued to depreciate against the US dollar, making Indonesian assets unattractive to foreign investors.

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AkzoNobel, the Dutch multinational that is primarily engaged in the fields of decorative paints, performance coatings and specialty chemicals, stated that it has shifted its focus from China to Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Vietnam. Ton Buchner, Chief Executive Officer of AkzoNobel, said growth in China has lost its decade-long momentum and thus AkzoNobel will reduce investment realization in China and instead focus on new growth markets in Southeast Asia.

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Perdagangan saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) dimulai kembali pada hari Rabu (22/07) setelah libur Idul Fitri selama 4 hari berakhir. Segera setelah dibuka, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,50% karena optimisme para investor mengenai performa terkini yang baik dari pasar saham global setelah Yunani yang terbeban hutang mencapai kesepakatan dengan para koordinator internasionalnya sementara guncangan di saham Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) memudar.

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Bank Pembangunan Asia (Asian Development Bank/ADB) mengumumkan telah mengurangi proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2015 dan 2016 baik untuk Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) maupun negara-negara berkembang Asia lainnya karena perlambatan perekonomian yang berkelanjutan di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ini. Ekspansi perekonomian RRT diproyeksikan untuk mencapai 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015 dan 6,8% (y/y) di 2016. Kedua proyeksi ini turun 0,2% poin dari proyeksi ADB sebelumnya.

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Sejalan dengan tren global, saham Indonesia terus naik pada Selasa (14/07). Kebanyakan indeks-indeks saham (di seluruh dunia) terus bergerak dalam wilayah hijau setelah Yunani yang dibebani banyak hutang mencapai kesepakatan dengan kreditor internasionalnya - setelah pertemuan darurat selama 17 jam - untuk sebuah paket penghematan yang akan tetap mempertahankan Yunani di dalam zona euro. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) telah naik 0,60% menjadi 4.923,36 poin pada pukul 11:45 WIB pada hari Selasa.

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global di 2015 menjadi 3,3% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), dari 3,5% (y/y) sebelumnya, karena musim dingin yang keras mempengaruhi Amerika Serikat (AS) dan sejalan dengan itu menarik turun pertumbuhan global. Di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, perekonomian AS berkontraksi 0,2% (y/y). Terlebih lagi, kekacauan di Yunani dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok menyebabkan volatilitas yang besar dalam pasar keuangan global, lembaga yang bermarkas di Washington ini menyatakan dalam sebuah update World Economic Outlook (WEO) pada hari Kamis (09/07).

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened further on Wednesday (08/07) due to the continuing fall of Chinese stocks (raising concerns about global economic growth) and the downward revision of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s economic growth forecasts for Indonesia in 2015. Furthermore, global uncertainty brought about by the looming Greek exit (Grexit) from the euro continues to plague markets worldwide and makes investors prefer to wait for more certain times.

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The World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2015 from 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) as private consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of total economic growth in Indonesia, is estimated to weaken further in the second half of 2015 while government spending has been lower than expected (causing subdued fixed investment). Furthermore, persistent low commodity prices and tighter credit conditions provide further pressures that led to the extreme downward revision.

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Meskipun Indonesia dianggap sebagai salah satu perekonomian Asia yang sangat rentah terhadap keluarnya Yunani dari zona euro (Greek exit/Grexit), saham dan rupiah Indonesia tidak melemah sebanyak aset-aset pasar negara berkembang lainnya pada hari Senin (29/06), hari perdagangan pertama setelah hancurnya pembicaraan antara Yunani, yang dibebani banyak hutang, dengan para kreditor internasionalnya. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) jatuh 0,82% menjadi 4.882,59 poin sementara rupiah melemah 0,24% menjadi Rp 13.339 per dollar AS (Indeks Bloomberg).

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Saham Indonesia diprediksi merasakan tekanan turun yang berat pada hari Senin (29/06) karena pembicaraan yang terhenti antara Yunani yang terbeban hutang dengan para kreditor internasionalnya. Transaksi Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) masih belum dibuka namun pasar-pasar Asia yang lain segera jatuh setelah pembukaan. Indeks Nikkei 225 dari Jepang turun 2,28% sementara yen menguat (para investor sedang mengejar aset-aset yang aman), sementara KOSPI dari Korea Selatan jatuh 1,5%. Nilai euro sangat menurun dalam perdagangan Asia.

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By the end of Friday's trading day (28/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.75 percent to IDR 11,361 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. At the end of March 2014, the rupiah is still the best-performing Asian currency this year, outperforming 24 emerging-market currencies that are tracked by Bloomberg. Since 31 December 2013, the rupiah appreciated nearly seven percent against the US dollar as an easing current account deficit and slowing inflation triggered capital inflows into Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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During most of the day, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) moved in the green zone, seemingly unaffected by falling indices on Wall Street on Wednesday (26/03). However, just before the trading day closed  market participants engaged in profit taking causing the 0.11 percent decline of the IHSG to 4,723.06 points. It is difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for this occurrence. Perhaps because Asian indices turned mixed after China's benchmark index fell as China's latest industrial profit growth data were weak.

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On Wednesday (26/03), most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar as the region's shares hit a two-week high on upbeat US economic data in combination with reduced concern over the crisis in Crimea (Ukraine). However, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate was one of the exceptions to this trend on today's trading day. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,412 at 16:15 local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan recovered some of its earlier losses.

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Despite technical indicators suggesting further upward movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG), a positive performance of the index was blocked by external factors. Several Asian stock indices were down responding to Markit's lower US manufacturing PMI (slipping to 55.5 from 57.1 in February 2014). Similarly, China and the Eurozone's manufacturing data showed slowing growth. Continued appreciation of the rupiah exchange rate managed to limit the decline of the IHSG.

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At the start of the new week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was able to continue to climb, supported by positive Asian indices. Today, investors took advantage of discounted stocks in Asia as markets had fallen after the Federal Reserve's announcement last week that the quantitative easing program would be wound down further as well as a possible US interest rate hike in 2015 and 2016. However, the IHSG was also vulnerable to profit taking. Therefore, today's gain was limited.

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Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.

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Although we advise investors to remain careful as any negative sentiment will be used as a valid reason for profit taking, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was up from the start of the trading day on Tuesday (11/03). The start of dividend payouts helped to offset concerns about possible interest rate hikes (in emerging markets) as well as the impact of weak indices on Wall Street and Europe on Monday (10/03). Asian stock indices, however, were positive on Tuesday, thus providing support for the IHSG.

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Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa said that the rupiah exchange rate's new equilibrium is at IDR 11,000 per US dollar. As the economic fundamentals of Indonesia's economy have improved in recent months - evidenced by the easing current account deficit and inflation - the rupiah has shown a strong performance, appreciating around six percent against the US dollar in 2014 (year to date). In fact, Rajasa warned that the rupiah should not strengthen too much as this impacts negatively on Indonesia's trade balance.

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Although immediately plunging 0.33 percent to IDR 11,478 per US dollar after its opening on Monday (10/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.57 percent to IDR 11,375 per US dollar by 14:00 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah's performance today is in sharp contrast with other Asian currencies. As US nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected and Chinese exports fell sharply (18.1 percent year-on-year) in February 2014, the US dollar appreciated against most Asian currencies.

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Rising indices on Wall Street on Tuesday (04/03) impacted positively on Asian indices the following day, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG). As the political tensions in Ukraine have somewhat eased since Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was not seeking to escalate the conflict, investors were again eager to invest in emerging market stocks; foreign investors were net buyers. Today's performance of the IHSG left a gap at 4,602-4,621 points.

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