Despite the hosting of the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2015 (20-30 August 2015), Indonesian car sales continued to shrank in August due to people’s weaker purchasing power amid the country’s economic slowdown. In August a total of 90,077 cars were sold in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, down 6.9 percent from the same month last year, according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo).

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Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves fell to USD $105.3 billion in late August 2015 (from USD $107.6 billion in the preceding month) as the government used foreign exchange (forex) for external debt payments while the central bank (Bank Indonesia) used part of the forex to intervene in the currency market in an effort to support the ailing rupiah rate which has been under severe pressure amid looming further monetary tightening in the USA and concern about the hard landing of China’s economy.

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Most Asian stock markets finished lower on Monday (07/09) on persistent concern about the hard landing of China’s economy and the (related) selloff on European and US markets that occurred at the end of last week. Meanwhile, most Asian currencies depreciated (against the US dollar) after a US jobs report (released last Friday) could make the Federal Reserve decide to raise short-term interest rates later this month. All in all, investor sentiment remains fragile.

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Saham dan rupiah Indonesia memiliki awal yang buruk pada Senin pagi. Pada pukul 9.35 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB), Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) telah jatuh 0,99% menjadi 4.371,49 poin, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,45% menjadi Rp 14.236 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Saham-saham Indonesia dan rupiah sedikit melemah pada Jumat sore (04/09). Mirip dengan kemarin, hari ini terjadi perdagangan yang relatif tenang (kemungkinan disebabkan karena pasar di Shanghai sedang tutup karena liburan dan karenanya membatasi penyebaran volatilitas yang besar). Pada pukul 15:20 WIB Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 0,48% menjadi 4.411,99 poin sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,07% menjadi Rp 14.180 per dollar Amerika Serikat (berdasarakan Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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International credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service stated that the healthy liquidity levels of Indonesian property developers are expected to be sufficient to offset the negative impact of the heavily depreciated rupiah. A weak rupiah is troublesome - and negative for the credit rating - as about two-thirds of property developers’ debt is US dollar-denominated, while their revenue is rupiah-denominated. Secondly, Moody's is positive about the government recent decision to offer tax holidays.

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Global markets are again facing rough times after China’s manufacturing activity fell to a three-year low in July 2015, yet another sign that the world’s second-largest economy is slowing faster than earlier estimated (and this surely impacts negatively on the global economy). Concerns about China led to plunging stock indices from Japan to New York on Tuesday (01/09). Moreover, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who is on a visit in Indonesia, said the IMF may soon cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2015 again (from 3.3 percent currently).

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In line with nearly all other Asian stock markets, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) plunged 2.15 percent to 4,412.46 points on Tuesday (01/09). After Asian trade had closed European and US indices also plummeted severely. The main reason is today’s announcement that China’s manufacturing fell to a three-year low in August 2015, yet another sign that China’s economic growth is declining faster than estimated. The country’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 in August from 50.0 in July (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction).

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Most Asian stock markets are strengthening on Friday after indices on Wall Street rose yesterday on strong US economic growth. The US economy grew 3.7 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015 (much higher than the 2.3 percent estimated previously). As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.27 percent while global oil prices rebounded over 10 percent on Thursday (27/08).

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Darmin Nasution, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economics, told reporters on Thursday (27/08) that the government is set to announce a policy package aimed at supporting the rupiah. The package, set to become effective next week, involves deregulation and tax holidays. Further information is expected to be presented by Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro later today.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that, besides global volatility caused by uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, the rupiah has been - and remains - under pressure due to Indonesia’s increasing private sector debt and the wide current account deficit. Moreover, as subsidiaries of multinational companies in Indonesia tend to send back dividends to the foreign parent companies in the second quarter (implying rising US dollar demand), the rupiah is plagued by additional pressures up to June.

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Indeks harga konsumen Indonesia turun di bulan Februari 2015, mencatat deflasi 0,36% dalam basis month-on-month (m/m), sementara tingkat inflasi tahunan (y/y) nasional berkurang menjadi 6,29%, turun dari 6,96% (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya. Tekanan-tekanan inflasi berkurang terutama karena menurunnya harga cabai dan bahan bakar. Berkurangnya tingkat inflasi di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini bisa menyediakan ruang bagi bank sentral (Bank Indonesia) untuk memotong suku bunga lebih lanjut di tahun ini.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Monday (02/03). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 12,970 per US dollar, a six-year low. Apart from general bullish US dollar momentum in recent months (amid monetary tightening in the USA), the rupiah weakened due to Bank Indonesia’s signals that it tolerates a weaker currency in a move to boost exports (limiting the country’s current account deficit), and due to China’s interest rates cut.

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Nilai tukar rupiah menguat pada Senin (16/02) karena neraca perdagangan dan neraca transaksi berjalan membaik, sementara dolar AS melemah karena penjualan ritel AS yang mengecewakan dan karena optimisme bahwa Yunani akan tetap menjadi anggota zona euro. Sementara itu, kementerian keuangan Indonesia mengadakan lelang obligasi konvensional di mana Rp 12 triliun dijual. Berdasarkan data Bloomberg, rupiah terapresiasi 0.35 persen menjadi Rp 12,753 per dolar AS pada Senin (16/02).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated and Indonesian stocks rose on Wednesday (04/02) on the back of rallying oil prices, a successful bond auction, easing tensions in Europe, and weak US factory orders. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 12,630 per US dollar on Wednesday (04/03). Meanwhile, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) climbed 0.45 percent to 5,315.28 points.

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Positive macroeconomic data of Indonesia - involving the significantly lower trade deficit in 2014 and easing inflation - had a good impact on the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday (03/02) although prior to closing the currency somewhat slid after Australia's central bank cut its interest rates causing speculation of further policy easing around the Asia Pacific region in a move to support sluggish growth and avert deflation. Most emerging Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday against the US dollar on stronger risk appetite.

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Both Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate and stocks strengthened on Tuesday (27/01) as concerns about Greece exiting the Eurozone somewhat eased while the positive market sentiments that were caused by the European Central Bank’s recently unfolded quantitative easing program are still felt. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) gained 0.33 percent to 5,277.15 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 12,469 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Indonesian stocks hit a record high on Thursday (22/01). Most emerging Asian stocks and currencies strengthened on increased speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is to launch a massive bond-buying program (which was confirmed later on the day after Asian markets had closed), a move aimed at boosting inflation in the Eurozone and which puts pressure on euro-denominated assets. The euro had depreciated 1.67 percent against the US dollar by 11:20 ET on Thursday based on Bloomberg data.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.76 percent to IDR 12,481 per US dollar on Wednesday (21/01) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The performance of the rupiah was in line with most other emerging Asian currencies as Japan’s yen strengthened (against the US dollar) after Japan’s central bank announced to maintain an accommodative monetary policy in an attempt to boost inflation to two percent (y/y). Furthermore, speculation about quantitative easing in Europe boosted attractiveness of riskier Asian assets.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Wednesday (14/01) as global oil and other commodity prices continued to fall thus casting a negative spell on Indonesia’s currency. The rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Market participants are concerned about the negative influence of low commodity prices on Indonesia’s export performance. Southeast Asia’s largest economy has had to cope with a wide trade and current account deficit in recent years.

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