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On Friday 6 September 2024 Indonesia Investments released the August 2024 edition of its monthly report. This report discusses various economic, political and social topics that were relevant (to Indonesia) in the month of August 2024.
In March 2022 the US Federal Reserve started to tighten its monetary policy in an aggressive manner to combat high US inflation that –at one point– touched a 40-year high.
On 6 June 2023 Indonesia Investments released the May 2023 edition of our monthly report. The report discusses key economic, political and social issues that impacted on Indonesia in the month of May 2023.
Before we give an update on the monetary policy of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), it is worth mentioning that Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo was appointed for another five-year term (2023-2028) as the central bank’s chief.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate (BI 7-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) after concluding its two-day policy meeting on 18-19 January 2023. Indonesia’s benchmark rate now stands at 5.75 percent. It also raised its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
As expected, the central bank of Indonesia (henceforth: Bank Indonesia) decided to raise its benchmark interest rate (the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50 percent after concluding its latest (two-day) monetary policy meeting on 21-22 December 2022. Meanwhile, it also decided to raise the deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 4.75 percent and 6.25 percent, respectively.
On 7 November 2022 Indonesia Investments released the October 2022 edition of its monthly report. Our report presents in-depth and independent analyses of a range of economic, political and social subjects that have been in the news in the month of October 2022.
Last month we stated that Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) might just be at the start of a (prolonged) monetary tightening cycle. After all, higher interest rates is what we see happening across the world; a development that is led by the Federal Reserve (Fed) that has been aggressively raising its benchmark interest rate to fight inflation. This then causes capital outflows from most other parts of the world.
As Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) was very late in terms of tightening its monetary policy amid the latest global tightening cycle – and the US Federal Reserve continued its hawkish stance with another 0.75 percentage point hike in September 2022 – it has some catching up to do.
On 4 August 2022 Indonesia Investments released the July 2022 edition of its monthly report. In this report we analyze the latest (and most relevant) economic, political and social news from Indonesia.
Artikel Terbaru Federal Reserve
Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's economic growth in 2015 is targeted in the range of 5.5 to 6.3 percent. Amid further Federal Reserve tapering and possible interest rate hikes in the world's largest economy, chances of capital outflows from emerging markets (including Indonesia) are becoming larger. Basri said that these global conditions impact on GDP growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, 2015 is a transition year, reflected by tighter economic projections and state spending.
At the end of Friday’s trading day (02/05), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.32 percent to IDR 11,525 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The rupiah performed better than most of its regional emerging peers as inflation and trade data, which were released today by Statistics Indonesia, provided positive market sentiments. Indonesian inflation eased to 7.25 percent (year-on-year) in April 2014, from 7.32 percent a month earlier. Meanwhile, the country posted a trade surplus of USD $673 million in March 2014.
Standard Chartered Bank Economist Eric Sugandi expects that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will have raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 50 basis points (bps) to 8.00 percent by the end of 2014. Sugandi also said that it is highly unlikely that Bank Indonesia will lower its BI rate in the next two years amid further Federal Reserve tapering and possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016. Moreover, the Indonesian government may still decide to reduce fuel subsidies further (thus triggering inflationary pressures).
Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to move sideways in the first quarter of 2014. Finance Minister Chatib Basri forecasts a growth rate of between 5.7 and 5.8 percent, similar to the growth pace that was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013 (5.78 percent). Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), economic growth in Indonesia has slowed since the second quarter of 2013. In Q2-2013, Indonesia's GDP expanded by 5.89 percent, thereby ending a ten-quarter streak of +6 percentage growth.
According to the latest East Asia Pacific Economic Update - the World Bank’s comprehensive review of the region’s economies which was released today (07/04) - developing countries in the East Asia Pacific region will see stable economic growth this year, bolstered by a recovery in high-income economies and the market’s modest response so far to the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its quantitative easing. Developing East Asia will grow by 7.1 percent this year, largely unchanged from 2013.
Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) is expected to be maintained at 7.50 percent at Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's Meeting on Tuesday 8 April 2014. Despite Indonesia's moderating inflation rate (7.32 percent year on year in March 2014) and the February 2014 trade surplus of USD $785 million, the BI rate may be left unchanged in order to support the further easing of Indonesia's current account deficit and to offset the impact of the possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016.
At 15:00 local Jakarta time on Tuesday (01/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate as well as the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) have shown a positive performance so far. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.64 percent to IDR 11,288 per US dollar, while the IHSG climbed 2.15 percent to 4,871.38. A number of internal and external factors contributed to this remarkable performance today.
By the end of Friday's trading day (28/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.75 percent to IDR 11,361 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. At the end of March 2014, the rupiah is still the best-performing Asian currency this year, outperforming 24 emerging-market currencies that are tracked by Bloomberg. Since 31 December 2013, the rupiah appreciated nearly seven percent against the US dollar as an easing current account deficit and slowing inflation triggered capital inflows into Southeast Asia's largest economy.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 11,447 per US dollar on Thursday (27/03) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency's strong performance in February and the first half of March, supported by Indonesia's easing current account deficit and inflation, has met resistance due to global concern about the aggressive US Federal Reserve monetary tightening (winding down its quantitative easing program by another chunk of USD $10 billion as well as possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016).
Today (18/03), the World Bank released the March 2014 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled Investment in Flux. The report discusses key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these developments in a longer-term and global context. Secondly, it provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, as well as analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. Click here for further information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia.
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