Pihak berwenang Indonesia, yaitu Pemerintah dan bank sentral (Bank Indonesia), mengumumkan sejumlah asumsi makroekonomi yang direvisi untuk 2015 dan 2016. Mungkin yang paling penting adalah bahwa asumsi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2016 telah diturun pada cakupan 5,5-6,0% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), turun dari asumsi sebelumnya yaitu 5,8-6,2% (y/y). Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro juga menyatakan bahwa Pemerintah akan mengasumsikan rupiah pada Rp 13.000-13.400 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk tahun 2016.

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Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia) announced today (15/06) that Indonesia posted a USD $950 million trade surplus in May 2015, the sixth consecutive monthly trade surplus and higher than the earlier projected USD $600 million. Although the trade surplus is positive news, a closer look at the data shows that domestic and global activity has weakened as Indonesian imports fell 21.4 percent (y/y) to USD $11.6 billion, while exports fell 15.2 percent to USD $12.6 billion in May, the eight straight month of falling imports and exports.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its economic growth outlook for Indonesia in 2015. In a meeting with the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that Indonesia’s GDP growth is expected to reach 5.1 percent (y/y) this year. Previously, the central bank projected economic growth in the range of 5.4 to 5.8 percent (y/y). However, after seeing weak growth in the first quarter (4.71 percent y/y), projections had to be revised.

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The central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (15/05) that Indonesia’s current account deficit narrowed to USD $3.8 billion, or, 1.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2015. Although this result is slightly higher than Bank Indonesia’s estimation (1.6 percent of GDP), it was lower than the current account deficits in Q4-2014 (2.6 percent of GDP) or Q1-2014 (1.9 percent). This positive performance was mainly caused by a narrowing deficit in the country’s oil & gas trade balance.

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Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di Q1-2015 dicatat 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Meskipun telah diprediksi bahwa angka pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia akan jatuh di bawah batas 5%, perlambatan ini lebih buruk dari dugaan awal. Suryamin, Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), menyatakan pada awal hari ini (05/05) bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat mencapai level terendah selama lima tahun akibat lemahnya ekspor (hasil dari berkurangnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di pasar ekspor) dan rendahnya harga minyak mentah dunia.

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Pada Mei 2015 Pemerintah Indonesia akan menawarkan keringanan pajak pada perusahaan-perusahaan yang mengekspor minimal 30% dari produksi mereka. Pada awal bulan ini, Presiden Indonesia Joko Widodo menandatangani sebuah paket kebijakan yang mencakup keringanan pajak untuk para eksportir dan juga keringanan pajak untuk perusahaan-perusahaan multinational yang bersedia mereinvestasi keuntungan di Indonesia daripada mengirimkan keuntungan dan dividen kepada para pemegang saham di luar negeri. Paket ini didesain untuk memperbaiki neraca perdagangan Indonesia (dan neraca transaksi berjalan).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s current account deficit has eased to 1.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2015. This estimate is lower than the institution’s initial forecast of 2 percent of GDP. Main reason for this more optimistic view is that Indonesia experienced a USD $2.43 billion trade surplus in the first quarter of 2015. Particularly the unexpectedly-wide USD $1.13 billion trade surplus in March will manage to ease pressures on the country’s current account.

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Over the past two days the Indonesian rupiah has performed strongly against the US dollar. The primary reason for this performance is Indonesia’s March trade surplus. On Wednesday (15/04), Statistics Indonesia announced that the country’s March trade surplus totaled USD $1.13 billion. This is Indonesia’s fourth straight monthly trade surplus and the highest one since December 2013. Moreover, the USD $1.13 billion March surplus was nearly twice the size that analysts had forecast previously.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Wednesday (15/04) that Indonesia posted a USD $1.13 billion trade surplus in March 2015, the country’s fourth straight monthly trade surplus, and almost twice the size that analysts had forecast earlier. Despite the monthly trade surplus being good news, data also showed that both Indonesian exports and imports contracted. Exports were down 9.8 percent (y/y) to USD $13.71 billion in March, while imports fell 13.4 percent (y/y) to USD $12.58 billion.

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Di dalam Update Perekonomian Asia Timur dan Pasifik dari Bank Dunia, dirilis hari Senin (13/04), institusi yang bermarkas di Washington ini merevisi turun proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia menjadi 5,2% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015, menurun dari 5,6% di Update Bank Dunia sebelumnya. Penyebab utama penurunan proyeksi ini adalah performa ekspor Indonesia yang tetap lemah karena lambatnya perekonomian dunia, termasuk lemahnya permintaan dari Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (mitra dagang terbesar Indonesia). Sementara itu, konsumsi domestik Indonesia dibatasi tingkat suku bunga yang tinggi.

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Indonesia's production of crude palm oil (CPO) in the first six months of 2013 rose 25.64 percent compared to semester I-2012 to 14.7 million tons, which is a little over half of this year's CPO production target. Despite weak global demand for the commodity (accompanied by falling CPO prices), growth was accomplished due to new seeds that became productive and because the total size of Indonesian palm oil estates continues to expand. Productive estates now stand at 9.4 million hectares from 8.7 million hectares last year.

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IHSG akhir pekan lalu kembali ditutup terkoreksi 0,3% atau 15 poin di 4658,874. Nilai transaksi di Pasar Reguler kembali menipis hanya Rp.3 triliun dibandingkan rata-rata harian pekan lalu yang mencapai Rp.3,84 triliun. Asing masih mencatatkan nilai penjualan bersih Rp.92,9 miliar. Minimnya insentif positif, rilis laba emiten yang dibawah perkiraan sebelumnya, dan pelemahan rupiah atas dolar AS telah menjadi pemicu penurunan indeks. Dilihat sepekan IHSG terkoreksi 1,39% dan rupiah melemah 1,94% di Rp.10265/US dolar. 

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Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) in June 2013 grew about 29 percent to 1.62 million ton compared to the same month last year. Although production of CPO in Indonesia slowed down in June, higher demand for Indonesia's CPO is met because there are still sufficient amounts of stockpiles. A high official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said that stockpiles in 2012 grew to 5 million tons as global demand for the commodity weakened sharply amid international economic turmoil.

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The recovery in global palm oil prices that seemed to have started last spring, has ended. A few months ago, optimism had colored expectations of many analysts as palm oil prices went up about 10 percent between early May and mid-June, after tumbling 30 percent in 2012 (causing that palm oil was one of the worst performing commodities in terms of price growth last year). However, the palm oil price increase earlier this year was merely the result of falling production rates in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producers.

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The World Bank has revised down its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 to 5.9 percent from its original estimate of 6.2 percent. Similarly, the institution has altered its forecast for economic growth in 2014 from 6.5 percent to 6.2 percent. The revised figures were published in July's edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled 'Adjusting to Pressures'. The World Bank's forecast is also in sharp contrast with the GDP assumption of the Indonesian government, which puts economic growth in 2013 at 6.3 percent.

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Similar to the Jakarta Great Sale event, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) trades its stocks at low prices as foreign investors have sold large parts of their Indonesian stock assets in recent weeks. Last week, foreign investors sold IDR 4.9 trillion (about USD $492.4 million), meaning that this year's accumulated foreign net buying has evaporated. Will these sales continue? Yes, I think so. Foreigners have invested about IDR 144 trillion in Indonesia's capital markets between 2007 and Q1-2013. As such, there is still plenty to sell.

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Indonesia already is a strong trade partner to a number of countries in Europe. Based on data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the Netherlands and Spain are two European countries that import a considerable amount of Indonesian products and thus are important contributors to Indonesia's trade surplus in the non oil & gas sector. But other European nations, such as Germany and Russia, pressure Indonesia's trade surplus. It indicates that, despite the wide distance, Indonesia and Europe have a close and valuable trade relationship.

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The slowing pace of investments has made the Indonesian government decide to revise down its forecast for economic growth in the second quarter of 2013. Minister of Finance, M. Chatib Basri, believes that GDP growth will not exceed the six percent threshold in Q2-2013. He explained that there are a number of factors that refrain the government from setting a higher growth assumption. These factors include ailing exports, non-optimal government spending, and diminishing gross fixed capital investment.

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Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.

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Last week, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono extended the moratorium on new permits to convert natural forests and peat lands for a further two years. In 2011, Indonesia's government signed the two-year primary forest moratorium that came into effect on 20 May 2011 and expired in May 2013. This moratorium implies a temporary stop to the granting of new permits to clear rain forests and peat lands in the country. The moratorium particularly aims to limit Indonesia's quickly expanding palm oil industry.

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