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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi inflasi headline akan mencapai 2,79% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) dalam setahun penuh 2015, di bawah cakupan target bank sentral yaitu 3-5%. Inflasi di Indonesia pada tahun ini rendah, berakumulasi menjadi 2,16% di 10 bulan pertama tahun 2015, dan Bank Indonesia memperkirakan bahwa laju inflasi akan tetap terkontrol di dua bulan terakhir tahun 2015.
Total outstanding foreign debt of Indonesia fell to USD $302.4 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2015, down USD $2.1 billion from the end of the preceding quarter. The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said both public and private external debt declined in Q3-2015 as both sectors were reluctant to take up new (overseas) debt amid global uncertainties, Indonesia's sluggish economic growth, and the fragile rupiah (ahead of looming capital outflows brought about by higher US interest rates).
Stock indices in Asia were mixed on Wednesday (18/11), while most emerging market currencies depreciated against the US dollar. The Indonesian rupiah was under pressure - touching a six week low - after the central bank (Bank Indonesia) cut the primary minimum statutory reserves from 8.00 percent to 7.50 percent (effective per 1 December 2015), hence providing local financial institutions approximately USD $1.8 billion more in liquidity. However, it may not be enough to trigger an increase in lending as banks are more focused on lending quality than quantity.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects the country's economic growth to come in the lower end of its 4.7-5.1 percent (y/y) gross domestic product (GDP) growth target range for full-year 2015. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects to see accelerated economic growth in the last quarter of the year (from the preceding quarter) due to increased government spending and investment. In the second quarter of 2015, Indonesia's economy expanded at the slowest pace in six years (+4.67 percent y/y), then accelerating to 4.73 percent (y/y) in the following quarter.
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo announced during a press conference that the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent during the Board of Governor's Meeting on 17 November 2015. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia maintained the deposit facility rate and the lending facility rate at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. The current interest rate environment is considered sufficient to face persistent global uncertainties caused by the looming Fed Fund Rate hike and sluggish economic growth in the Eurozone and China.
Neraca transaksi berjalan di Indonesia membaik karena neraca perdagangan non minyak & gas (migas) yang lebih kuat. Defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia menurun menjadi 4,0 miliar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), atau 1,86% dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), di kuartal ketiga tahun 2015. Performa ini jauh lebih baik dari defisit 7,0 miliar dollar AS (3,02% dari PDB) yang tercatat di kuartal 3 tahun 2014 atau 4,2 miliar dollar AS (1,95% dari PDB) di kuartal 2 tahun 2015. Sementara itu, neraca pembayaran menunjukkan defisit sebesar 4,6 miliar dollar AS, naik dari defisit 2,93 miliar di kuartal sebelumnya.
Bank sentral Indonesia mengumumkan pada hari Jumat (06/11) bahwa cadangan devisa Indonesia telah jatuh sebesar 1 miliar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) menjadi 100,7 miliar dollar AS pada akhir Oktober 2015. Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh pembayaran hutang luar negeri dan usaha-usaha untuk menstabilkan rupiah yang rapuh (mata uang Indonesia sensitif pada prediksi pasar mengenai ancaman kenaikan suku bunga AS).
Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi akan terjadi penurunan inflasi yang besar dalam beberapa bulan terakhir di tahun 2015. Saat ini, laju inflasi tahunan mencapai 6,83% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Kendati begitu, pada akhir tahun Bank Indonesia memperkirakan bahwa indeks harga konsumen akan menurun menjadi 3,6% (y/y), yang termasuk area bawah dari range target inflasi 2015 (3-5% y/y). Berita terbaru ini disampaikan oleh Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo ketika bertemu dengan Forum Koordinasi Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (FKSSK).
Agus Martowardojo, Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), said there are still 320 local companies that have not complied with the central banks' hedging requirements regarding foreign loans. A Bank Indonesia study conducted in late-2014 showed that the country’s private sector foreign debt is vulnerable to several risks i.e. currency risks, liquidity risks and overleverage risks due to unhedged loans.
Seperti yang telah diprediksi, bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50% dalam Pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bulan Oktober yang dilaksanakan pada hari Kamis (15/10). Sementara itu, Bank Indonesia mempertahankan suku bunga Fasilitas Simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi rate) dan suku bunga lending facility masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Suku bunga tidak diubah karena proyeksi perekonomian global masih sangat tidak jelas. Hal ini membahayakan stabilitas rupiah Indonesia.
Artikel Terbaru Bank Indonesia
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced two important matters on Thursday (14/08). Firstly, the institution decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) at 5.75 percent, and the lending facility rate at 7.50 percent. Secondly, it announced that Indonesia’s current account deficit widened to USD $9.1 billion, or, 4.27 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2014, a widening that is larger than initially forecast.
Weakening global stock indices meant that it would be difficult for the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) to continue its upward movement on Tuesday (05/08). Moreover, there were few positive sentiments originating from the Archipelago as Indonesia’s Q2-2014 GDP growth (+5.12 percent year-on-year) was below expectation and the country’s trade balance showed a deficit of USD $300 million in June 2014. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah exchange appreciated slightly.
According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).
Former Deputy Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) Budi Mulya was sentenced to ten years imprisonment and a fine of IDR 500 million on Wednesday (16/07) after being found guilty of self-enrichment and corruption in connection to the government's USD $573 million bailout package for Bank Century in 2008 when, amid the global financial crisis, this bank was on the brink of collapse. However, many disagree that Bank Century was about to collapse as no deep analysis had been conducted on the financial condition of the bank.
At Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors’ meeting, convened today (10/07), it was decided to keep the country’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, and the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. According to the central bank this policy is consistent with efforts to steer inflation back towards the target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.
Although the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.86 percent to IDR 11,995 per US dollar on Friday (27/06) as economic data from China, South Korea and Taiwan sparked optimism that regional growth has picked up, the recent depreciating trend of Indonesia’s currency burdens the country’s manufacturing industry. This industry is still dependent on imports of raw materials, capital goods and auxiliary materials, which are paid using US dollars causing the domestic industry to feel the financial impact of a weaker rupiah.
On Thursday 12 June 2014 it was decided at the central bank’s Board of Governors’ Meeting to maintain the country’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This decision is consistent with ongoing efforts to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce Indonesia’s current account deficit to a more sustainable level.
Although at the end of Wednesday’s trading day (11/06) Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was up, the index had been moving in the red zone during most of the day. Moreover, the index did not get support from the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate nor did it get support from Asian stock indices which tended to decline after yesterday’s weakening indices on Wall Street. Fortunately, foreign investors recorded net buying, thus contributing to the 0.52 percent growth of the IHSG to 4,971.95 points.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated slightly on Wednesday (11/06). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency of Southeast Asia’s largest economy appreciated 0.04 percent to IDR 11,810 per US dollar. Reuters reported that the euro zone's monetary easing in combination with the recent improvement in China's economy offset the impact of higher US yields on Asia. However, investors are still waiting for several data, including the BI interest rate, the Eurozone’s industrial production, and US retail sales.
Just as unexpected as yesterday when the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) fell 1.06 percent amid positive domestic and international circumstances, the IHSG made a surprise rebound on Tuesday’s trading day. Yesterday’s fall was exorbitant and unfounded and today market participants made up for that performance by accumulating stocks that had lost value. As a result the IHSG gained 1.25 percent to 4,946.09 points on Tuesday (10/06).
