Indonesian inflation may reach 2.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) only in full-year 2015, the lowest level since 2009 when inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy was recorded at 2.78 percent (y/y). In recent years Indonesia's inflation has been volatile with peaks correlating with administered price adjustments (primarily fuel and electricity price hikes as the government is keen on limiting spending on subsidies). Another characteristic of Indonesia is that inflation is generally high (compared to advanced economies), which is in line with the higher economic growth pace (than that of advanced economies).

Lanjut baca ›

Rupiah Indonesia menguat secara signifikan terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Senin (21/12) kendati ada prediksi bahwa rupiah akan menjadi mata uang dengan performa terburuk di Asia pada tahun 2016 akibat capital outflows (karena suku bunga AS direncanakan akan semakin dinaikkan pada tahun 2016), cadangan devisa Indonesia yang menurun, dan harga-harga komoditi yang terus-menerus rendah. Berdasarkan pada Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah telah menguat 1,13% menjadi Rp 13.760 per dollar AS pada pukul 14:20 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB) pada hari Senin (21/12).

Lanjut baca ›

Indeks-indeks saham di Asia Tenggara jatuh pada hari Jumat (18/12), dipimpin oleh indeks-indeks acuan di Thailand dan Indonesia. Pasar-pasar Asia ini mengikuti koreksi global yang terjadi setelah investor mempertimbangkan dampak yang mungkin terjadi dari kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve. Saham-saham di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Eropa turun pada hari Kamis dan hari Jumat, sementara harga minyak dan komoditi-komoditi lainnya terus menurun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia turun 1,92 persen menjadi 4,468.65 poin.

Lanjut baca ›

Setelah reli kuat pada hari Kamis (merespon positif terhadap pengumuman Federal Reserve untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate), aset-aset Indonesia melemah pada hari Jumat (18/12) sementara kebanyakan pasar Asia turun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,20% menjadi 4.501,34 poin pada pukul 09:45 WIB, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,22% menjadi Rp 14.040 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Karena itu, saham-saham Indonesia mengikuti contoh saham-saham Amerika Serikat (AS) yang jatuh semalam.

Lanjut baca ›

Bank Indonesia, bank sentral dari negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara, mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50% pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember pada hari Kamis (17/12). Sementara itu, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) tidak berubah pada 5,50% dan fasilitas pinjaman di 8,00%. Ini adalah bulan kesepuluh berturut-turut Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah suku bunganya (pada bulan Februari 2015 bank sentral memangkas BI rate sebesar 0,25%).

Lanjut baca ›

Saham dan rupiah Indonesia merespon sangat positif terhadap keputusan Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate yang menjadi acuan sebesar 25 basis poin pada Rabu (16/12). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) melonjak 1,62% menjadi 4.555,96 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 0,44% menjadi Rp 14.009 per dollar AS. Tidak hanya saham di Indonesia tetapi saham global juga sangat naik pada akhir dari ketidakpastian yang berkelanjutan mengenai waktu kenaikan suku bunga AS.

Lanjut baca ›

Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) akhirnya memutuskan untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember (15-16 Desember) karena perbaikan yang signifikan pada kondisi pasar tenaga kerja AS (tingkat pengangguran di AS telah jatuh menjadi 5%) dan inflasi AS diproyeksikan untuk mencapai target the Fed sebesar 2% pada jangka waktu menengah. Setelah pengumuman ini saham AS melonjak. Pasar negara-negara berkembang tidak mengalami capital outflows besar-besaran setelah kenaikan ini. Indeks-indeks saham di Asia menguat tajam pada hari Kamis pagi (17/12).

Lanjut baca ›

Bursa saham di Asia mengalami cuaca buruk karena para investor menarik dana dari pasar negara-negara berkembang. Pada pukul 11:25 WIB, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia telah jatuh 1,11% menjadi 4.344,69 poin, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,54% menjadi Rp 14.068 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Para investor mencari aset yang (lebih) aman haven karena Federal Reserve diperkirakan akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate (untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir satu dekade) pada pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) berikutnya (dijadwalkan pada 15-16 Desember).

Lanjut baca ›

On the last trading day of the week, Indonesian stocks plunged 1.63 percent to 4,393.52 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,984 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most Asian indices were weaker as investors are bracing for - most likely - the first Fed Fund Rate hike in nearly a decade. On 15-16 December the US Federal Reserve will hold a crucial policy meeting. Tighter monetary policy in the USA leads to capital outflows from Indonesia as the country is regarded particularly vulnerable to such a move.

Lanjut baca ›

Asian stock indices - including Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index which reopened after a market holiday - were mostly in red territory on Thursday (10/12) as investors are cautious ahead of the looming US interest rate hike, expected to be decided upon at the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting (15-16 December), as well as low oil prices and falling US stocks overnight. Moreover, the central bank of China allowed its yuan to depreciate further (to a near four-month low), hence resulting in the resurgence of some fears of a currency war in Asia.

Lanjut baca ›

Despite the release of positive macroeconomic data on Monday (03/02), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,240 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January and put pressure on stocks and currencies in emerging markets. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's further reduction of its quantitative easing program (to USD $65 billion per month) continues to strengthen the US dollar at the expense of emerging currencies.

Lanjut baca ›

The Jakarta Globe reported that Schroders Indonesia will increase its Indonesian assets by 5 to 10 percent in 2014 as the company expects the country's benchmark stock index (IHSG) to rise amid the legislative and presidential elections that are scheduled for April and July 2014. Schroders is optimistic that growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy will accelerate after the hiccup in 2013 when large capital outflows emerged amid international and domestic troubles. Indonesia's GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 5.7 percent in 2013.

Lanjut baca ›

Today (27/01), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell 2.58 percent to 4,322.78 points. This sharp decline can only be explained by profit taking amid market uncertainty. As I have reported before, the IHSG is highly susceptible to profit taking when negative sentiments arise in the market. Factors that accounted for these sentiments were the continued depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate and falling Asian stock markets (that were impacted by Wall Street's negative ending last week).

Lanjut baca ›

In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,238 per US dollar on Monday (27/01). The decline of the rupiah was in line with today's trend of weakening Asia Pacific currencies (against the US dollar). Meanwhile, the central bank's mid rate (the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or JISDOR) depreciated 0.17 percent to IDR 12,198 per US dollar. Market participants are concerned about Indonesia's January 2014 inflation and further Federal Reserve tapering.

Lanjut baca ›

In the fourth week of January, Bank Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate (the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or JISDOR) depreciated 0.41 percent against the US dollar. This weakening trend of the rupiah was caused by various factors. Most importantly, the US dollar has been gaining strength against emerging currencies, including Indonesia, as speculation emerged that the Federal Reserve will curtail its massive monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing) by more than just USD $10 billion per month.

Lanjut baca ›

The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 12,181 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (24/01). Asian currencies felt the impact of a contraction of Chinese manufacturing as HSBC’s preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to 49.6 in January 2014. Meanwhile, US existing homes sales in December were best since 2006 while US jobless claims were near a six-week low. These data fuel speculation that the Fed will continue to wind down its bond-buying program.

Lanjut baca ›

On Thursday's trading day (16/01), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell victim to profit taking after two days of sharp gains (although the index did not came close to its gap at 4,393-4,398 points). The index was also pulled down due to the World Bank's pessimistic forecast for growth of Indonesia's economy as well as today's mixed Asian stock indices. Lastly, the continued Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciation contributed to negative market sentiments.

Lanjut baca ›

As expected, the Jakarta Composite Index (abbreviated IHSG) continued its downward trend amid falling global indices. From the start of Tuesday's trading day (07/01), the IHSG had to face pressures resulting in foreign net selling. Apart from the weakening rupiah exchange rate, negative market sentiments were caused by the Goldman Sachs Group and JP Morgan Chase & Co that both downgraded emerging market economies. This led to a correction on Asian stock markets.

Lanjut baca ›

On Wednesday (18/12), the Federal Reserve announced to slightly scale back its quantitative easing program starting from January 2014. The reduction of the bond-buying program involves USD $5 billion of mortgage-backed securities and USD $5 billion of US treasury securities. Thus, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of USD $75 billion worth of bonds per month instead of the current pace of USD $85 billion. For the moment, this policy change has an euphoric effect on global stock markets.

Lanjut baca ›

The announcement that the Federal Reserve (FED) will start its quantitative easing tapering in January 2014, while keeping interest rates low, made stock indices in Asia rise, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG), although mining and property stocks were able to limit today's gain. The IHSG rose 0.85 percent to 4,231.98 points on Thursday (19/12). The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate (IDR), however, was down as future tighter US dollar supplies causes market participants to buy US dollar now.

Lanjut baca ›