The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecast for Indonesia in 2015 from 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5 percent (y/y). During a press conference on Tuesday (07/07) in Jakarta, Edimon Ginting, Deputy Country Director for Indonesia of the Philippines-based ADB, said that there are three reasons that explain why the ADB has become less optimistic about Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2015. Last year, Indonesia’s economic growth slowed to a five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y).

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Pada 5 Juli 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletter-nya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita-berita paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami dalam tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik berkaitan dengan isu-isu ekonomi seperti update terbaru dari peraturan kewajiban penggunaan rupiah, inflasi Juni, target pertumbuhan ekonomi Pemerintah, kepercayaan konsumen, pasar properti, pembangunan infrastruktur, dan banyak lagi.

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Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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Aktivitas manufaktur Indonesia terus berkontraksi. Pada bulan Juni, untuk bulan ke-9 secara berturut-turut sektor manufaktur Indonesia berkontraksi. Purchasing manager index (PMI) dari Nikkei/Markit sedikit naik menjadi 47,8 di bulan Juni 2015 dari 47,1 di bulan Mei, mengimplikasikan bahwa sektor ini berkontraksi dalam kecepatan lebih lambat tapi tetap di bawah level 50 yang membedakan kontraksi dari ekspansi. Kontraksi berlanjut karena penurunan secara terus menerus dalam pemesanan baru dan produksi.

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Pihak berwenang Indonesia, yaitu Pemerintah dan bank sentral (Bank Indonesia), mengumumkan sejumlah asumsi makroekonomi yang direvisi untuk 2015 dan 2016. Mungkin yang paling penting adalah bahwa asumsi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2016 telah diturun pada cakupan 5,5-6,0% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), turun dari asumsi sebelumnya yaitu 5,8-6,2% (y/y). Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro juga menyatakan bahwa Pemerintah akan mengasumsikan rupiah pada Rp 13.000-13.400 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk tahun 2016.

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Contrary to the performance of most other Asian stock indices, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.52 percent to 4,959.25 points on Monday (22/06). Other Asian markets were supported by renewed hopes of averting a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone after the debt-ridden country gave new proposals to its creditors in the Eurozone over the past weekend. According to the Greek government these proposals are mutually beneficial. Ahead of the ‘emergency’ meeting today, the euro and European stocks tend to rise heavily.

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Beberapa institusi internasional merevisi turun proyeksi mereka untuk pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2015 karena investor asing telah kecewa dengan performa pemerintah Indonesia yang baru, sementara gambaran perekonomian global tetap jauh dari membaik. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse dan Nomura Holdings semuanya memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia tahun ini menjadi di bawah batasan 5% (year-on-year). Tahun lalu pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia menyentuh titik terendah selama lima tahun terakhir yaitu 5,02% di basis year-on-year (y/y).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its economic growth outlook for Indonesia in 2015. In a meeting with the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that Indonesia’s GDP growth is expected to reach 5.1 percent (y/y) this year. Previously, the central bank projected economic growth in the range of 5.4 to 5.8 percent (y/y). However, after seeing weak growth in the first quarter (4.71 percent y/y), projections had to be revised.

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In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR), Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the economy of Indonesia is currently facing four global risks. These four risks are low international commodity prices, China’s slowing economic expansion, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone and, lastly, further monetary tightening to be conducted by the US Federal Reserve. These issues are not new and have already contributed to slowing economic growth in Indonesia.

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Di laporan terakhir dari Organization for Economic Co-operation and Developmen (OECD) ditekankan bahwa kesetaraan gender dalam pekerjaan harus dipromosikan oleh pemerintah dalam rangka melawan ketidaksetaraan pendapatan dan karenanya mencapai masyarakat yang harmonis serta mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi inklusif. Di kebanyakan negara ketidaksetaraan gender tetap merupakan masalah yang menimbulkan keprihatinan. Laporan ini juga menyatakan bahwa pemerintah seharusnya tidak mengacuhkan pentingnya meluaskan akses pekerjaan dan mendorong investasi di pendidikan.

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Although recently having slowed, Indonesia has experienced solid economic growth over the past ten years, with the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) almost doubling between 2001 and 2012. However, robust economic growth also resulted in significant environmental degradation and accelerated depletion of Indonesia’s natural resources. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, World Bank Group Managing Director (and former Indonesian Finance Minister), emphasized that Indonesia needs to shift from a ‘brown’ to a ‘green’ growth model.

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Gambaran ekonomi Indonesia dari sisi pengeluaran sangat didominasi oleh permintaan domestik. Sejak Q1 2010 hingga Q1 2015, rata-rata peran permintaan domestik mencapai 99,5 persen, dengan nilai terendah sebesar 96,8 persen. Sisi positif dari kondisi ini adalah ekonomi Indonesia relatif tahan terhadap guncangan faktor eksternal. Pengalaman menunjukan bahwa saat terjadi krisis subprime mortgage di Amerika dan krisis finansial di Eropa, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia masih relatif tinggi dan konsisten dibandingkan negara-negara lain.

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Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report today (24/03) in which it discusses recent economic developments in Indonesia. According to the report, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to accelerate over the two years ahead provided that the Indonesian government continues to implement structural policy reforms. Such reforms - which include the acceleration of infrastructure development, reduction of logistical costs, and enhancing budget implementation - should lead to an improvement of the investment climate.

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In a surprise move, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to lower its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the Board of Governor’s Meeting on Tuesday (17/02). The deposit facility rate (Fasbi) was also lowered by 25 basis points (to 5.50 percent), while the lending facility rate remained steady at 8.00 percent. In a press release the central bank stated that the current policy direction is estimated to moderate the country’s wide current account deficit further, while inflation remains under control.

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In a World Bank blog, World Bank economist Alex Sienaert posted an update on the economy of Indonesia. After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the country’s latest GDP growth figures in early February, two important revisions regarding Indonesia’s GDP statistics have been made: (1) BPS has shifted the basis of the computation from the year 2000 to 2010, and (2) it adopted a significantly updated methodology and presentation of the statistics (updating national accounts from the 1993 System of National Accounts [SNA] to SNA 2008).

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Walaupun pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia bergerak lebih lambat pada tahun 2014, terlihat optimisme bahwa pertumbuhan tersebut akan rebound pada tahun 2015 meskipun kondisi ekonomi global belum kondusif (dan membatasi kinerja ekspor Indonesia) serta lingkungan suku bunga Indonesia yang masih tinggi. Bank Indonesia menaikkan BI rate beberapa kali selama satu setengah tahun terakhir dalam upaya untuk mencegah inflasi tinggi (yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga BBM subsidi), menghambat aliran keluar modal menjelang pengetatan moneter AS, membatasi defisit transaksi berjalan dan mendukung nilai rupiah.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated and Indonesian stocks rose on Wednesday (04/02) on the back of rallying oil prices, a successful bond auction, easing tensions in Europe, and weak US factory orders. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 12,630 per US dollar on Wednesday (04/03). Meanwhile, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) climbed 0.45 percent to 5,315.28 points.

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In his presentation at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January, Standard Chartered Bank Senior Economist Fauzi Ichsan said that despite the challenges amid global uncertain times, there remains plenty room and opportunity for Indonesia to grow robustly on the long-term. In fact, by 2030 Ichsan believes that Indonesia will be among the world's top ten countries in terms of largest economies. For investors it is important to understand the challenges and key pillars of economic growth.

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At the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January 2015, Bank Indonesia official Arief Mahmud presented several views of the central bank on the current Indonesian economy and the global and domestic challenges that it faces. As is widely known, Indonesia has been experiencing a process of slowing economic growth since 2011 due to sluggish global economic growth in combination with the rebalancing of the domestic economy. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2015.

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