It is expected to be another difficult day for Indonesian stocks and the rupiah as there are few to none positive market sentiments that can support these assets on today’s trading day. Wall Street closed lower on Thursday (23/07) for the third consecutive day on disappointing financial results of several big companies, dragging down indices in the East. Commodity indices continue to fall (oil returning to bear market on resilient US output and rising OPEC supply). Meanwhile, sharp rupiah depreciation makes investors nervous.

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Rupiah kembali menyentuh batasan psikologis Rp 13.400 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, mata uang Indonesia telah melemah 0,22% menjadi Rp 13.405 per dollar AS pada pukul 11:22 WIB pada hari Kamis (23/07), sebuah level yang terakhir disentuh rupiah saat Indonesia masih kena dampak Krisis Finasial Asia pada tahun 1998. Melewati batasan psikologis ini bisa berarti bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) akan kembali mengintervensi untuk mendukung rupiah dalam rangka melindungi kepercayaan terhadap rupiah.

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Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah terus melemah pada hari Senin (20/07). Mata uang Indonesia melemah 0,31% menjadi Rp 13.395 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), level terlemahnya sejak 1998 waktu negara ini dilanda oleh Krisis Finansial Asia. Sementara itu, aktivitas Bank Indonesia masih terbatas sampai hari Rabu (22/07) karena libur umum (perayaan Idul Fitri), menyebabkan bank sentral untuk sementara tidak mempublikasikan Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR).

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Indonesia mencatat surplus perdagangan 477 juta dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada bulan Juni 2015, surplus perdagangan ke-7 secara beruntun. Meskipun begitu, menurut data terakhir dari BPS, diterbitkan pada hari Rabu (14/07), ekspor Indonesia pada Juni ini jatuh 12,8% (year-on-year) menjadi 13,4 miliar dollar AS, sementara impor jatuh 17,4% (year-on-year) menjadi 12,9 miliar dollar AS. Angka-angka ini menunjukkan bahwa surplus perdagangan Indonesia terutama disebabkan oleh permintaan domestik yang lemah dan lebih melambat daripada permintaan global (yang terus melambat juga). Kondisi ini meningkatkan kekuatiran mengenai pertumbuhan perekonomian domestik dan global.

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Seperti yang telah diprediksi, Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada hari Selasa (14/07). BI rate yang menjadi acuan dipertahankan pada 7,50%, sementara fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Bank Indonesia meyakini bahwa kondisi tingkat suku bunga saat ini sejalan dengan upaya untuk menurunkan inflasi dan juga mendukung rupiah yang melemah menjelang perkiraan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) di kemudian hari pada tahun ini.

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Sejalan dengan tren global, saham Indonesia terus naik pada Selasa (14/07). Kebanyakan indeks-indeks saham (di seluruh dunia) terus bergerak dalam wilayah hijau setelah Yunani yang dibebani banyak hutang mencapai kesepakatan dengan kreditor internasionalnya - setelah pertemuan darurat selama 17 jam - untuk sebuah paket penghematan yang akan tetap mempertahankan Yunani di dalam zona euro. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) telah naik 0,60% menjadi 4.923,36 poin pada pukul 11:45 WIB pada hari Selasa.

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Kebanyakan analis setuju bahwa Bank Indonesia akan mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga yang sama dalam pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang dijadwalkan untuk dilaksanakan pada hari Selasa 14 Juli 2015. Bank sentral Indonesia dipediksi akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00% karena tingkat inflasi Indonesia telah meningkat cepat baru-baru ini sementara rupiah mengalami tekanan karena faktor-faktor eksternal.

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Pengiriman kopi Indonesia ke Eropa telah naik karena melemahnya rupiah dan panen kopi yang lebih banyak. Ekspor biji robusta dari Pulau Jawa bertumbuh 22,1% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Juni 2015. Sementara itu, para pedagang Eropa memprediksi pengiriman yang besar akan berlanjut di bulan Juli. Rupiah Indonesia adalah mata uang negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk yang dicatat Bloomberg, melemah hampir 7,2% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) sejauh ini di tahun ini. Sisi positif dari mata uang yang lemah adalah ekspor negara ini menjadi lebih atraktif.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), predicts that the current economic turmoil in the Eurozone, caused by the Greek debt crisis, will impact on the stability of developing countries, including Indonesia. Although in terms of both trade and investment there should not be a real impact originating from Greek turmoil, the perception of macroeconomic stability will be somewhat hit on the back of global uncertainty. In line with most markets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday (06/07).

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Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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Amid mostly gaining stock markets in Southeast Asia on Tuesday (11/11), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rebounded sharply after several days of declines. Most Indonesian blue chip stocks rose considerably after having tumbled in recent days. Positive market sentiments were caused by Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo’s participation in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Beijing as well as news that both camps in Indonesian parliament have agreed to work together.

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Although we initially expected that the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) would be supported by the various macroeconomic data (inflation, trade balance, and manufacturing activity) that were released by Statistics Indonesia today, the opposite is what happened. The index went into red territory amid profit taking, although the bond market in fact strengthened and foreign investors recorded net buying at IDR 224 billion (USD $18.7 million).

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The number of air passengers in Indonesia will most likely fail to meet its growth target in 2014. Based on government data, the number of air passengers in Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 47.5 million in the first eight months of 2014, a 5.82 percentage point growth from the same period last year. However, the Indonesia National Air Carrier Association (INACA) initially targeted annual passenger growth in the range of 12-15 percent for 2014. Amid slowing economic growth, people’s purchasing power has declined.

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The market showed today (27/10) that the composition of Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s cabinet did not live up to expectations. On Sunday afternoon, Widodo had announced the names of the ministers inside his Working Cabinet (Kabinet Kerja) after having delayed the announcement for almost a week as several of his ministerial candidates needed to be replaced having been red flagged by the country’s Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). This then heightened expectations that Widodo’s cabinet would constitute a ‘dream team’.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah have rebounded on Friday due to several internal and external factors. During the first trading session on Friday (17/10), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) surged 0.94 percent to 4,998.14 points. Meanwhile, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.26 percent to IDR 12,228 per US dollar by 12:30 pm local Jakarta time. Why do Indonesian stocks and the rupiah perform well on Friday?

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In line with global stock indices, the benchmark index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined on Thursday’s trading day. Falling indices on Wall Street were a major concern to global investors as weak corporate and economic data may indicate that the economic recovery of the USA is not as structural as previously assumed. The NY empire state manufacturing index, US retail sales, US chain store sales, and US business inventories all weakened and ‘infected’ Asian stock indices, including the IHSG.

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Despite the fact that foreign investors continued to record net selling (IDR 216.9 billion) and despite mostly declining stock indices in Southeast Asia, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.19 percent to 4,922.59 points on Tuesday’s trading day (14/10). The IHSG was particularly supported by rising consumer and manufacturing stocks. Indonesian stocks were also supported by the appreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.

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Indonesian stocks tumbled at the first trading day of the week as investors are still concerned about the condition of the global economy. Declining stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week had a negative impact on Asian stock indices, including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index, or abbreviated IHSG). The IHSG fell 1.01 percent to 4,913.05, its lowest level since 4 July 2014, on Monday (13/10). Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 595 billion (USD $49.6 million).

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In line with the volatile performance of global stocks, led by indices on Wall Street, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or abbreviated IHSG) showed a volatile performance over the past week. US stocks mostly declined - except for the sharp rebound on Wednesday after Federal Reserve minutes signalled no higher US interest rates anytime soon - on concerns about the global economy (particularly the Eurozone), looming higher US interest rates, and the appreciating US dollar (hurting US exports).

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