Indek Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) adalah salah satu dari beberapa indeks di Asia yang melawan tren pada perdagangan hari ini (02/11). Sementara kebanyakan indeks Asia, dipimpin oleh saham di Jepang, jatuh karena kekuatiran mengenai kontraksi yang berkelanjutan di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), IHSG berhasil naik 0,22% menjadi 4.464,96 poin. Sementara itu, harga minyak jatuh dan dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) memperpanjang kerugian terhadap sebagian besar mata uang negara-negara berkembang.

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In line with estimates, Indonesia posted 0.08 percent (m/m) deflation in October 2015. Deflation was primarily caused by lower food prices in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Annual inflation eased to 6.25 percent (y/y) and is expected to ease more markedly in the last two months of the year as the impact of last year November's subsidized fuel price hike will be swept away from inflation figures. Indonesia's core inflation - which excludes volatile food and administered prices - was 5.02 percent (y/y) in October.

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On 25 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government's fifth stimulus package, Indonesia's tourism and automotive industries, Bank Indonesia's inflation forecast, a stock & rupiah update, the latest World Bank report, commodity updates, and more.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi akan terjadi penurunan inflasi yang besar dalam beberapa bulan terakhir di tahun 2015. Saat ini, laju inflasi tahunan mencapai 6,83% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Kendati begitu, pada akhir tahun Bank Indonesia memperkirakan bahwa indeks harga konsumen akan menurun menjadi 3,6% (y/y), yang termasuk area bawah dari range target inflasi 2015 (3-5% y/y). Berita terbaru ini disampaikan oleh Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo ketika bertemu dengan Forum Koordinasi Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (FKSSK).

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Car sales in Indonesia continued to decline in September 2015. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), a total of 92,478 vehicles were sold in Southeast Asia's largest economy in September, down 9.8 percent from sales in the same month last year. Indonesian car sales have been slowing since the all-time sales peak in 2013 amid the country's easing economic growth pace (triggering weaker purchasing power).

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On 4 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government and Bank Indonesia’s new economic policy package, an update of inflation and manufacturing activity, US interest rates the impact of El Nino on coffee and palm oil production, and much more.

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Pemerintah Indonesia mungkin akan memotong harga bahan bakar minyak di kuartal 4 tahun 2015 dalam rangka mendongkrak daya beli masyarakat dan mengurangi biaya yang ditanggung para pelaku manufaktur lokal. Tindakan ini akan menjadi bagian dari paket stimulus Pemerintah yang diprediksi akan diumumkan minggu depan. Pada tanggal 9 September dan tanggal 29 September, Pemerintah Indoensia telah mengumumkan dua paket kebijakan ekonominya. Kontras dengan dua paket kebijakan yang pertama, paket ketiga seharusnya memberikan hasil dalam jangka waktu pendek.

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Indonesia mengalami deflasi, dengan harga konsumen turun 0,05% (month-on-month), pada September 2015 karena menurunnya harga makanan dan transportasi. Contoh dari penurunan harga makanan termasuk harga daging ayam, telur, cabai, bawang dan minyak untuk memasak. Biaya transportasi yang lebih rendah terutama disebabkan karena menurunnya biaya transportasi udara yang berkontribusi kepada deflasi. Pada basis tahunan, inflasi Indonesia menurun 6,83% di bulan September, turun dari 7,18 pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya, dan di bawah perkiraan para analis pada 7,0 (y/y).

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Pada 27 September 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletternya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita-berita yang paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami dalam tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik berkaitan dengan isu-isu ekonomi seperti paket kebijakan baru Bank Indonesia, pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), pengembangan geotermal, update saham & rupiah, inflasi September, dan banyak lagi.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memperkirakan bahwa inflasi akan menurun di bawah 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan September 2015 akibat harga bahan-bahan pangan yang rendah dan menurunnya harga-harga yang ditetapkan (termasuk bahan bakar dan listrik) setelah periode Ramadan dan Idul Fitri. Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo mengatakan bank sentral memprediksi inflasi mencapai sekitar 6,95% (y/y) di bulan September.

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On Thursday 14 November 2013, Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), delivered his end-of-the-year speech at the Annual Bankers’ Dinner. The meeting was attended by leaders from Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), economic ministers, leaders of the country's banking industry and business community, non-ministerial government agencies as well as a number of international institutions, thus representing a strategic forum in terms of the national economy.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue its rebound. On Friday (15/11), the IHSG fell 0.73 percent to 4,335.45 points amid widespread profit taking. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 193 billion (USD $16.9 million) on today's trading day. Moreover, investors are concerned about the impact of the higher interest rate of the central bank (7.50 percent), particularly on the property and banking sectors in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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Despite rising concerns about the slowing pace of the Indonesian economy, the deputy minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro reminded investors that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2013 still constitutes one of the highest growth rates around the globe. Economic expansion in Q3-2013 slid to 5.6% in Southeast Asia's largest economy. With the exception of China (7.8% GDP growth in Q3-2013), Indonesia's growth continues to outpace growth in other emerging markets, such as Brazil (3.3%) and Turkey (4%).

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Five more new public listings are expected on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the remainder of 2013 despite the current less rosy macroeconomic environment in Indonesia. The companies that are expected to conduct their initial public offering (IPO) are Indomobil Multi Jasa, Dwi Aneka Jaya Kemasindo, Blue Bird, Soechi Lines, and Sawit Sumbermas Sarana. So far this year, 26 Indonesian companies went public on the IDX. At the start of the year, the IDX targeted for at least 30 new listings in 2013.

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Laju IHSG yang awalnya hanya melemah tipis dan mencoba untuk rebound, jelang sore hari berubah menjadi pelemahan setelah dipersuram oleh hasil RDG BI yang menaikkan BI rate dari level 7,25 persen menjadi 7,5 persen. Kenaikan BI rate ini tentunya dipersepsikan bahwa kondisi makroekonomi Indonesia yang belum akan membaik dan terutama timbul juga penilaian bahwa masih akan tingginya inflasi hingga akhir tahun.

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Bank Indonesia decided to raise the BI rate by 25 bps to the level of 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate raised to 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy was taken in light of the persistently large current account deficit amid widespread global uncertainty. Therefore, the decision was taken in order to ensure that the current account deficit is reduced to a more sound level and inflation in 2014 returns to around 4.5±1 percent, thereby supporting sustainable economic growth.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:

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Indonesian car sales have already exceeded the one million mark in October 2013. In the January-October period, 1,018,786 car units were sold, a ten percent increase compared to car sales in the same period last year. Growing demand for cars in Indonesia indicates that this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy is not influenced by current negative market sentiments, such as the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate (against the US dollar), high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013), and slowing economic growth.

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Indonesia will most likely not meet its original GDP growth target of 6.3 percent (stipulated in the 2013 State Budget). Yesterday (06/11), it was announced by Statistics Indonesia that Indonesia’s GDP growth figure in the third quarter of 2013 was recorded at 5.62 percent (year-on-year, yoy), the weakest quarterly growth figure since 2009 when the global financial crisis impacted on Southeast Asia’s largest economy. In 2013, Indonesia feels the global impact again, in combination with domestic factors.

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Last week, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) weakened. The benchmark stock index of Indonesia was affected by negative market sentiments brought on by domestic factors. Most importantly, the large-scale demonstrations across Indonesia by Indonesian workers who demanded for higher minimum wages as annual inflation has surged since June 2013 after prices of subsidized fuels were raised. These demands, however, jeopardize the attractiveness of Indonesia's investment climate.

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