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Berita Hari Ini Inflation
For the sixth straight month, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate regime unchanged at Tuesday’s Board of Governor’s meeting (18/08) as it aims to guard the rupiah against severe volatility (which occurred after China’s yuan was allowed to devalue, while markets are still preparing for monetary tightening in the USA) and tries to combat inflation.
On Friday (14/08) the Indonesian government unveiled its 2016 State Budget draft at a session in the House of Representatives (DPR). The draft is important as it shows government targets regarding the macroeconomy of Indonesia and it shows on what fields the government will focus in terms of public spending. The government - led by Indonesian President Joko Widodo - is optimistic that economic growth will finally rebound after four years of slowing economic growth as its 2016 GDP growth target was set at 5.5 percent (y/y).
The Indonesian rupiah continues to depreciate on Tuesday (11/08). By 11:16 am local Jakarta time, the rupiah had depreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 13,570 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Indonesia’s currency has been touching 17-year lows due to bullish US dollar momentum ahead of looming higher US interest rates. Today, the US dollar received additional strength as China allowed its currency to weaken to a three-year low, dragging down other currencies in the Asian region.
On 9 August 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as an analysis of the recent performance of the rupiah, an analysis of Q2-2015 GDP growth, updates on inflation as well as manufacturing, and unemployment in Indonesia.
As Indonesia’s economic growth continued to slow in the second quarter of 2015, the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) warned of increasing unemployment in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Each 1 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth can generate between 200,000 and 300,000 new jobs in Indonesia. As such, when economic growth slows, society misses out on new jobs and with around two million Indonesians entering the labor force each year, job generation is an important task of the government.
Inflation in Indonesia accelerated more than expected in July 2015. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesian inflation rose 0.93 percent (m/m) in July, primarily due to higher food and transportation costs caused by the Ramadan month and Idul Fitri celebrations. During this month, the people traditionally increase consumer spending (triggering higher food prices) and millions of people travel back to their places of origin for the Idul Fitri festivities (triggering higher transportation costs).
The pace of economic growth of Indonesia is expected to remain below five percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015 according to Reuters poll involving 22 analysts. In fact, the poll shows that further slowing economic growth is expected. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s economic growth came at 4.71 percent (y/y), the weakest growth pace in six years. According to the poll, analysts see a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.61 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015.
Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi melihat inflasi Indonesia di bulan Juli dalam cakupan 0,46 - 0,60% pada basis month-on-month (m/m). Inflasi di Indonesia selalu memuncak pada bulan Juni, Juli dan Agustus karena peningkatan belanja konsumen karena perayaan Ramadan & Idul Fitri dan juga awal tahun ajaran baru. Pada awal bulan ini, Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus Martowadojo mengatakan bahwa inflasi tahunan diprediksi untuk turun di bawah 7% di bulan Juli, dari 7,26% (y/y) di bulan Juni.
Seperti yang telah diprediksi, Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada hari Selasa (14/07). BI rate yang menjadi acuan dipertahankan pada 7,50%, sementara fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Bank Indonesia meyakini bahwa kondisi tingkat suku bunga saat ini sejalan dengan upaya untuk menurunkan inflasi dan juga mendukung rupiah yang melemah menjelang perkiraan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) di kemudian hari pada tahun ini.
Kebanyakan analis setuju bahwa Bank Indonesia akan mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga yang sama dalam pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang dijadwalkan untuk dilaksanakan pada hari Selasa 14 Juli 2015. Bank sentral Indonesia dipediksi akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00% karena tingkat inflasi Indonesia telah meningkat cepat baru-baru ini sementara rupiah mengalami tekanan karena faktor-faktor eksternal.
Artikel Terbaru Inflation
Starting from May 2013, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) has been on a weakening (bearish) trend inflicted by various reasons. First, in early May, Standard & Poor's downgraded Indonesia's credit rating due to the government's hesitancy to slash fuel subsidies. Then, the Federal Reserve started to speculate about ending its quantitative easing program. Capital outflows that followed indicated the vulnerable state of the Indonesian economy. Moreover, the controversial hike in fuel prices in late-June resulted in high inflation.
On Thursday (19/09), most currencies and stock indices outside the USA were bullish after the Federal Reserve decided to continue its massive monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. Today (20/09), Asian currencies and stock indices took the foot off the gas as many investors sought to cash in on yesterday's gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific was still able to rise slightly (0.1 percent) after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday, but Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) plunged 1.86 percent (after gaining 4.65 percent yesterday).
Investors all around the world are in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision to scale back the monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program known as quantitative easing (QE3). If indeed scaled back, then another important question remains: how much will the bond-buying program be toned down? Today (18/09), is the last day of the Fed's FOMC meeting in which these decisions are made. The market expects no drastic end to the program, instead a gradual toning down (between USD $10 to $20 billion) is anticipated.
Indonesia's poverty rate is expected to jump to between 11.13 and 11.37 percent of the total Indonesian population in 2013 due to inflationary pressures. Inflation may reach 9.2 percent at the year end. The new poverty forecast is significantly higher than the government's original target of 9.5 to 10.5 percent as set in the country's State Budget. The revised forecast was presented by Indonesia's Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas). Poverty basket inflation is expected to rise accordingly.
Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) climbed 7.3 percent to end at 4,375.53 on Friday (13/09). This growth is remarkable as it remains unknown what the Federal Reserve will do with its quantitative easing program (QE3). The next Fed meeting - scheduled for 17-18 September - is expected to provide more clarity regarding this matter. Positive sentiments that lifted the IHSG were Indonesia's slightly increased foreign exchange reserves, its stable rupiah after another BI rate hike, and the Bilateral Swap Deals (BSA) with Japan and China.
It was decided at the Board of Governors’ meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 September 2013 to raise the BI Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, the rate on the Lending Facility by 25 bps to 7.25% and the rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 bps to 5.50%. This action forms part of the follow-up measures taken to reinforce the policy mix instituted by Bank Indonesia, which focuses on controlling inflation, stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate and ensuring the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.
Indonesia's largest company by market capitalization is still HM Sampoerna, the country's largest tobacco company. The company has been the top company in Indonesia since March 2013 when it replaced Astra International, Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerate, on the top spot. Astra had been Indonesia's largest company since 2010. Currently, the third-largest company in terms of market capitalization is Unilever Indonesia. Unilever, which is Indonesia’s largest consumer goods producer, jumped four places in the ranking since late 2012.
Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) remained under pressure and was corrected 122,735 points, or 2.9 percent. At the start of the week, a number of important data were released. Inflation in August 2013 was 1.12 percent (month-to-month), 7.94 percent (calender year 2013), and 8.79 percent (year on year). Major contributors to Indonesia's inflation rate were food products (0.45 percent), followed by housing, water, electricity and gas (0.16 percent), and transportation, communication and financial services (0.16 percent).
In recent years, Indonesia's car sales have shown robust growth, culminating in a record high number of 1.12 million sold car units in 2012. This is an important statistic because car sales inform us about the state of the economy. Generally, rising car sales indicate an expanding economy while declining car sales indicate that the economy is slowing down. When we take a look at the table below, there is a link visible between Indonesia's GDP growth and rising car sales, except for 2011 to 2012 when GDP growth declined while car sales rose.
Although many global indices were up, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) fell a total of 2.93 percent during last week's trading. One important issue on global indices is the tapering off of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE3). On 17 and 18 September, the next meeting of the FOMC is scheduled, which is expected to discuss the future of QE3. Notably, as the meeting comes closer, most global indices in fact rise. Thus, market players seem to have become less concerned about an end to QE3.
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