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Although the trade performance of Indonesia was not as good as one month earlier, it is positive that its exports and imports experienced an increase (in value) in June 2024 compared to the same month one year ago.
Indonesia enjoyed another great USD $3.56 billion trade surplus in April 2024. But unfortunately the nation’s exports and imports both dropped on a month-on-month (m/m) basis. However, that was in line with our expectations as trade was disrupted by the end of the Ramadan month and the subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations (which meant a week-long holiday for Indonesia).
On 2 October 2023 Indonesian President Joko Widodo was present at the launch of the first ever bullet train (high-speed rail) in Southeast Asia. With the help of China (the project being part of China's Belt and Road infrastructure initiative), passengers can now travel from Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta to tourism/arts hub Bandung in West Java (or the other way round) in around 45 minutes only.
In July 2023 we saw a relatively modest trade surplus for Indonesia at USD $1.31 billion, down heavily from USD $3.45 billion in the previous month when it was the weak import performance that allowed Southeast Asia’s largest economy to enjoy a wide trade surplus.
Over the past two (or three) months we have emphasized that it is worth following Indonesia’s trade performance in the last quarter of 2022 (Q4-2022) as these export and import data should give some clues whether the world (and Indonesia) is bound to experience an economic hiccup at the beginning of 2023.
Indonesia’s export performance was impressive in August 2022, touching a new all-time record level of USD $27.91 billion. It was particularly the strong rebound in the value of refined palm oil shipments that pushed Indonesian exports higher. Imports into Indonesia also increased, albeit at a much slower pace, which especially came on the back of sharp growth in imports of capital goods.
As expected, Indonesia’s trade performance rebounded strongly in June 2022. This was certainly not a surprise considering the country’s exports had been held back significantly in May 2022 because of the government’s palm oil export ban that was imposed between 28 April 2022 and 23 May 2022 (in an effort to stabilize domestic cooking oil prices).
The Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released Indonesia’s Q1-2022 gross domestic product (GDP) data on 9 May 2022. Based on its calculation the Indonesian economy expanded 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y), which is in fact better –albeit very modestly– than our projection that was set at 5.0 percent (y/y).
While Indonesia Investments predicted the decline in imports into Indonesia in May 2021 – after Ramadan and Idul Fitri momentum had passed – we were surprised to see a significant drop in the country’s exports that same month.
Although the overall trade balance of Indonesia in March 2021 showed the smallest surplus for the country in nine months – with a USD $1.57 billion surplus in March 2021 – this is probably something that goes unnoticed considering both the export and import performance of Indonesia were quite impressive in March 2021.
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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) returned to where it belonged: above the level of 5,000 points. Apparently Moody's threat to downgrade Indonesia's credit rating, as has been done by Standard & Poor's a few days ago, did not leave a big impression on market participants. As a result, the IHSG rose 1.02 percent to 5,042.79 and thus almost repaired the damage done at the end of last week. Other Asian stock indices as well as positive openings in Europe also provided good support today.
The release of Indonesia's April deflation figure (0.10%) and orderly May Day demonstrations provided a good environment for investors to continue purchasing Indonesian stocks (despite uncertainty about Indonesia's subsidized fuel policy. Moreover, positive Asian stock indices - in combination with positive European openings on Wednesday - made the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG) rise to a new record level of 5,060.92 points on Wednesday (01/05/13), a 0.53 percent gain.
Today, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was under pressure from the start of the trading day. It was negatively affected by mixed Asian indices as well as yesterday's mixed American indices (where the Dow Jones Index weakened whereas other American indices gained). It made investors, in particular foreign investors, eager to sell parts of their stock portfolios. At the end of today's trading day, the IHSG stood at 4,994.52, a 0.34 percent fall compared to yesterday.
Positive moving stock indices in America and Europe on Tuesday (responding to various good corporate Q1-2013 data) were able to offset negative influence caused by weak manufacturing data from China and Europe. As a result Asian indices rose on Wednesday, including the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG) which managed to reach beyond the psychological boundary of 5,000 points. The index ended at the level of 5,011.61, a 0.73 percent gain compared to the previous trading day.
Rising American and European stock indices last Friday, helped to support Asian stock indices today (22 April 2013), including the Indonesia stock index (IHSG). However, the ongoing drama brought on by last Saturday's earthquake in China, impacted on the China stock index as well as on other Asian stock indices, including the IHSG. As the IHSG has been showing signs that it is overbought, market participants preferred to sell portions of their stock portfolios, resulting in a limited fall of the IHSG.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its World Economic Outlook (edition April 2013) titled "Hopes, Realities and Risks". In the report, the IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth from an initial 3.5 percent (January edition) to 3.3 percent currently. Although the IMF lowered its economic forecasts for most countries (including emerging markets as a whole), it revised up its projection for the ASEAN-5 countries¹ by 0.3 percent to 5.9 percent.
Despite non-conducive market sentiments, there was no stopping to the Indonesia stock index (IHSG) as it managed to reach its next psychological boundary on Thursday 18 April: 5,000 points. A fall in American energy and telecommunication stocks on the previous day - after corporate data indicated less-than-expected performances in the first quarter - buried hopes that the Dow Jones Index would hit another peak. As a result Asian stock indices were mostly negative.
Indonesia's main stock index, the IHSG, continued its rally on Wednesday 17 April due to increased US monthly Housing Starts, decreased US inflation, as well as financial results of companies that indicated revenues and net profits exceeded expectations. Moreover, the IMF upgraded its outlook for East Asia's economic, which made investors buy stocks. Within Indonesia, there was enthusiasm regarding Q1-2013 corporate results and dividend payouts, which offset uncertainties about the new fuel policy.
Most of us expected the Jakarta composite index (IHSG) to weaken on Tuesday 16 April 2013 amid mixed Asian stock indices and significantly weakened American and European indices on Monday (that responded to reports about both China's slowing economic growth and weak economic figures of America). Moreover, bomb explosions at the finish line of the marathon of Boston were expected to complicate the performance of the IHSG. But concerns turned out in vain.
The latest World Bank report of East Asia and the Pacific states that "driven by strong domestic demand, economies of developing East Asia and Pacific continue to be an engine of global growth, growing at 7.5 percent in 2012 - higher than any other region in the world." Amid a recovering global economy the report projects that regional growth will rise to 7.8 percent in 2013 and ease to 7.6 percent in 2014.
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