Today, Bank Indonesia will start its February two-day policy meeting. Markets are eagerly awaiting whether the central bank of Indonesia will indeed cut its key interest rate (BI rate) again. Last month, it had cut the BI rate by 0.25 percent to 7.25 percent as inflation, the current account deficit and the rupiah rate were all under control. Although the rate cut was welcomed by the business community it was considered not enough to push borrowing costs lower in Southeast Asia's largest economy hence unable to boost economic activity significantly.

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On 7 February 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an analysis of 2015 GDP growth realization, tax revenue, inflation, manufacturing activity, foreign relations, business restructuring of Panasonic and Toshiba, consumer confidence, the IKEA court case, the Zika virus, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) reported that Indonesian consumers are becoming increasingly optimistic about economic prospects and their personal financial situation this year, evidenced by a 5.1 point rise in Bank Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index to 112.6 points in January 2016. This index is based on a survey, involving 4,600 households in 18 cities across the archipelago (a reading above 100 indicates optimism, while a reading below 100 indicates pessimism).

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Indonesia's inflation rate rose 0.51 percent on a monthly basis in January 2016 according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Suryamin, Head of BPS, said food products accounted for most of the inflationary pressures in the first month of the year. Inflation tends to have a peak in the months December and January due to Christmas and New Year celebrations when consumer demand for various products, including food items, increases (the other peak comes in the June-August period due to Islamic celebrations).

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Indonesia's inflation is expected to accelerate in January 2016 according to the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia). Bank Indonesia detected a spike in prices of several food commodities - such as shallots, chili, and beef - at the start of the year. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo told reporters that he expects the country's inflation rate to rise by around 0.75 percent month-on-month (m/m) in January. This would imply that inflation will accelerate to 4.38 percent on an annual basis (from 3.35 percent y/y in December 2015).

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Although global media focus on the vicious terrorist attacks that occurred today in Jakarta, the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia) made a surprise move by cutting its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the January policy meeting. It is a surprise as Bank Indonesia emphasized repeatedly that it is primarily focused on rupiah stability while - amid severe market volatility (due to economic turmoil in China) - the rupiah remains under pressure.

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Pada tanggal 10 Januari 2016, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletter-nya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirim ke pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita baru yang paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami selama tujuh hari terakhir. Sebagian besar topiknya mencakup masalah ekonomi seperti analisis dampak perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) terhadap Indonesia, update inflasi, manufaktur, produksi minyak, perbankan syariah, dan banyak lagi .

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Angka inflasi Indonesia pada bulan Desember 2015 lebih tinggi dari yang diharapkan pada 0,96% pada basis month-to-month (m/m). Tingkat inflasi bulanan yang tinggi dikarenakan kenaikan harga makanan dan transportasi selama perayaan Natal dan Tahun Baru. Namun demikian, tingkat inflasi tahunan Indonesia jatuh ke level terendah sejak 2010 karena hilangnya dampak kenaikan harga bahan bakar bersubsidi pada bulan November 2014 dari angka inflasi tahunan, maka realisasi inflasi jatuh jauh di bawah target pemerintah (5%) dan kisaran target bank sentral (3-5%) pada tahun 2015.

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Tahun lalu Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 12,13% sehingga berakhir pada 4,593.01 poin pada 30 Desember 2015 di tengah ketidakpastian global yang parah akibat ancaman pengetatan kebijakan moneter di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan perlambatan ekonomi yang besar dari Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT). Hari ini, Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) akan memasuki hari perdagangan pertamanya di tahun baru. Apa yang kita harapkan dari kinerja saham Indonesia di Januari 2016?

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On 27 December 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia's 8th economic stimulus package, inflation, how to set up a legal entity in Indonesia (for foreign investors), updates on Indonesia's coal, cocoa and geothermal industries, and more.

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In recent weeks, Indonesia has to cope with a large amount of negative publicity as large capital outflows from the country's financial markets occurred, partly due to weak economic results regarding the current account balance, inflation and the the rupiah. Interest rates are rising, thus eroding people's purchasing power and consequently curbing economic growth. However, the Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, released by World Economic Forum, contained a positive outcome for Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

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HSBC's latest release of the Indonesia Manufacturing PMI did not paint a positive picture as Indonesia's manufacturing activity was reported to have contracted sharply in August 2013. The index declined to a 15-month low amid a contraction of output, new orders and export business. Payroll numbers fell at the fastest rate in the history of the HSBC survey. The August index stood at 48.5, down from 50.7 in July 2013, and marks the fourth consecutive month of decline. A reading below 50.0 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) went down 2.23 percent on Monday (02/09) after Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released a number of macroeconomic data. The country's inflation pace increased to 8.79 percent year-on-year, while it posted a record monthly trade deficit in July 2013 (USD $2.31 billion). Investors have been highly concerned about the development of Indonesia's current account deficit and after it became known that the figure was high in July, the IHSG quickly lost value.

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Last week Friday (30/08), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) ended 2.23 percent up to the level of 4,195.09 points, continuing its three-day 'winning streak'. Underlying reasons being the central bank's new policy package (that was released as a response towards the negative impact of global turmoil on Indonesia's financial stability) and the higher benchmark interest rate (BI rate). The BI rate was raised 50 basis points on Thursday (29/08) to 7.0 percent to stabilize the weakening rupiah that fell to IDR 11,000 per US dollar.

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The decision of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.00 percent and its deposit facility (Fasbi) by 0.50 percent to 5.25 percent seem to have had a good impact on the value of Indonesia's stocks and the rupiah. Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rose 2.23 percent to 4,195.09 points on Friday (30/08), implying a three-day winning streak. Since the first trading day of this year, the IHSG is down 3.47 percent.

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For the second day in a row Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was able to post a gain. Today, it rose 1.92 percent to 4,103.59 points. This rebound is possibly the result of the higher key interest rate. Yesterday, it was announced that the central bank (Bank Indonesia) scheduled an extra meeting to discuss monetary policy. Immediately speculation emerged that the BI rate might be raised by 50 basis points. And indeed it was raised, much to the liking of many investors and analysts.

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The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).

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Although Indonesia is one of the victims of the reversal of investment flows from emerging markets to developed markets, it is still far from a crisis. Global uncertainty regarding the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (QE3) and, to a lesser extent, the possible invasion of the US in Syria have worried investors and resulted in the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets. Funds are flowing back to western developed countries that have recently been showing signs of continued economic recovery.

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Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

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