Sejalan dengan perkiraan dan tren sejarah, penjualan mobil di Indonesia naik - dalam basis bulanan - di Juni 2015 menjelang perayaan Idul Fitri (yang menandai akhir bulan puasa umat Muslim). Penjualan mobil di Indonesia biasanya naik menjelang Idul Fitri, sebuah tradisi yang melibatkan perpindahan sementara jutaan orang Indonesia dari kota-kota ke daerah asal mereka. Sebelum perjalanan ke tempat asal, sebagian dari para pemudik ini membeli mobil baru, keputusan yang sering dipengaruhi oleh kampanye promosi dan program diskon.

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Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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Survei terakhir Bank Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa keyakinan konsumen di Indonesia jatuh pada bulan Juni karena kekuatiran mengenai menurunnya ketersediaan lapangan pekerjaan serta penurunan pendapatan dan aktivitas bisnis. Bulan Juni, Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bank sentral jatuh 1,5 poin menjadi 111,3. Sejauh ini di tahun ini, keyakinan konsumen Indonesia hanya naik di bulan Mei. Di bulan lainnya, indeks ini jatuh. Indeks ini dibuat berdasarkan pada sampel di 4.600 rumah tangga di 18 kota besar di Indonesia (skor 100 membatasi optimisme dari pesimisme).

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Aktivitas manufaktur Indonesia terus berkontraksi. Pada bulan Juni, untuk bulan ke-9 secara berturut-turut sektor manufaktur Indonesia berkontraksi. Purchasing manager index (PMI) dari Nikkei/Markit sedikit naik menjadi 47,8 di bulan Juni 2015 dari 47,1 di bulan Mei, mengimplikasikan bahwa sektor ini berkontraksi dalam kecepatan lebih lambat tapi tetap di bawah level 50 yang membedakan kontraksi dari ekspansi. Kontraksi berlanjut karena penurunan secara terus menerus dalam pemesanan baru dan produksi.

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Inflasi Indonesia berakselerasi menjadi 7,26% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Juni 2015 karena harga bahan pangan yang lebih tinggi yang dipicu oleh awal bulan Ramadan (bulan puasa yang suci bagi umat Islam). Perayaan musiman Ramadan dan dilanjutkan oleh Idul Fitri selalu menyebabkan tekanan inflasi di Indonesia karena konsumen meningkatkan belanja mereka. Meskipun daya beli masyarakat Indonesia telah menurun di beberapa bulan terakhir, direfleksikan dengan melambatnya penjualan mobil dan sepeda motor, barang-barang konsumen yang lebih murah seperti makanan, pakaian, sepatu dan tas saat ini sedang banyak terjual.

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Eric Sugandi, Chief Economist dari Standard Chartered Bank, memprediksi bahwa rupiah akan melemah menjadi Rp 13.900 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada akhir tahun ini dari Rp 13.339 pada hari ini (29/06) karena dampak dari momentum bullish dollar AS menjelang pengetatan moneter di AS dan ancaman keluarnya Yunani dari zona euro. Sebenarnya, ini adalah prognosa konservatif. Apabila bank sentral Indonesia tidak meningkatkan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate), sekarang pada 7,50%, tekanan terhadap rupiah mungkin akan meningkat nyata secara lebih lanjut.

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Sejalan dengan prediksi pasar, bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) tidak mengubah suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) yang tetap pada 7,50% di hari Kamis (18/06). Bank Indonesia tetap berkomitmen pada posisi moneternya yang relatif ketat dalam usaha melawa percepatan inflasi, membatasi defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia yang lebar, dan mendukung rupiah yang sedang melemah. Bank sentral juga menetapkan tingkat fasilitas simpanan bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) diprediksi tidak akan mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang akan dilaksanakan hari Kamis. Pada saat ini suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI rate) berada pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00%. Bank sentral tampaknya berkomitmen pada tingkat suku bunga yang relatif tinggi ini karena inflasi Indonesia telah naik menjadi 7,15% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan Mei, sementara rupiah menyentuh level terendah selama 17 tahun terakhir pada 9 Juni 2015.

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Beberapa institusi internasional merevisi turun proyeksi mereka untuk pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2015 karena investor asing telah kecewa dengan performa pemerintah Indonesia yang baru, sementara gambaran perekonomian global tetap jauh dari membaik. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse dan Nomura Holdings semuanya memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia tahun ini menjadi di bawah batasan 5% (year-on-year). Tahun lalu pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia menyentuh titik terendah selama lima tahun terakhir yaitu 5,02% di basis year-on-year (y/y).

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Car sales in Indonesia have declined 17 percent to 443,328 units in the first five months of 2015 according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers Association (Gaikindo), hence providing further confirmation that consumer demand has continued to fall amid the country’s slowing economic growth, depreciating rupiah and accelerating inflation. Car sales are one of the key indicators to measure people’s purchasing power as well as the general state of the economy.

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In recent weeks, Indonesia has to cope with a large amount of negative publicity as large capital outflows from the country's financial markets occurred, partly due to weak economic results regarding the current account balance, inflation and the the rupiah. Interest rates are rising, thus eroding people's purchasing power and consequently curbing economic growth. However, the Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, released by World Economic Forum, contained a positive outcome for Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

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HSBC's latest release of the Indonesia Manufacturing PMI did not paint a positive picture as Indonesia's manufacturing activity was reported to have contracted sharply in August 2013. The index declined to a 15-month low amid a contraction of output, new orders and export business. Payroll numbers fell at the fastest rate in the history of the HSBC survey. The August index stood at 48.5, down from 50.7 in July 2013, and marks the fourth consecutive month of decline. A reading below 50.0 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) went down 2.23 percent on Monday (02/09) after Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released a number of macroeconomic data. The country's inflation pace increased to 8.79 percent year-on-year, while it posted a record monthly trade deficit in July 2013 (USD $2.31 billion). Investors have been highly concerned about the development of Indonesia's current account deficit and after it became known that the figure was high in July, the IHSG quickly lost value.

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Last week Friday (30/08), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) ended 2.23 percent up to the level of 4,195.09 points, continuing its three-day 'winning streak'. Underlying reasons being the central bank's new policy package (that was released as a response towards the negative impact of global turmoil on Indonesia's financial stability) and the higher benchmark interest rate (BI rate). The BI rate was raised 50 basis points on Thursday (29/08) to 7.0 percent to stabilize the weakening rupiah that fell to IDR 11,000 per US dollar.

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The decision of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.00 percent and its deposit facility (Fasbi) by 0.50 percent to 5.25 percent seem to have had a good impact on the value of Indonesia's stocks and the rupiah. Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rose 2.23 percent to 4,195.09 points on Friday (30/08), implying a three-day winning streak. Since the first trading day of this year, the IHSG is down 3.47 percent.

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For the second day in a row Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was able to post a gain. Today, it rose 1.92 percent to 4,103.59 points. This rebound is possibly the result of the higher key interest rate. Yesterday, it was announced that the central bank (Bank Indonesia) scheduled an extra meeting to discuss monetary policy. Immediately speculation emerged that the BI rate might be raised by 50 basis points. And indeed it was raised, much to the liking of many investors and analysts.

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The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).

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Although Indonesia is one of the victims of the reversal of investment flows from emerging markets to developed markets, it is still far from a crisis. Global uncertainty regarding the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (QE3) and, to a lesser extent, the possible invasion of the US in Syria have worried investors and resulted in the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets. Funds are flowing back to western developed countries that have recently been showing signs of continued economic recovery.

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Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

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