Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia booked a USD $670 million trade surplus in April 2016, primarily caused by a bigger-than-expected decline in imports. Most analysts expected to see a monthly trade surplus around USD $200 million last month. In the first four months of 2016, Indonesia's trade balance has now accumulated into a USD $2.3 billion trade surplus. Although the surplus is positive, there remain deep concerns about the persistently falling import and export figures.

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Indonesian cosmetic companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange have not yet seen earnings gain momentum in the first quarter of 2016. Martina Berto is the only listed cosmetic producer that managed to post rising net sales and net profit in Q1-2016. Meanwhile, the two other cosmetic firms - Mustika Ratu and Mandom Indonesia - saw their net sales decline in the same period due to weak purchasing power and household consumption in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Moreover, cosmetic firms have been offering discounts in order to raise sales volumes.

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Efforts to raise people's purchasing power and household consumption in Indonesia will be key to push for higher economic growth in 2016. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 4.92 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2016. Although this result failed to meet analysts' projections (which generally stood around 5 percent y/y), it was higher than the 4.73 percent (y/y) economic growth pace that was posted in the same quarter one year earlier.

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced today that the nation's trade balance posted a USD $490 million trade surplus in March 2016. In line with analysts' forecasts, Indonesia's March trade surplus shrank considerably from a USD $1.1 billion surplus one month earlier. Indonesia's March exports reached a total of USD $11.79 billion, while imports were recorded at USD $11.30 billion. Although the nation's exports and imports rose compared to the preceding month, there remains ongoing concern about the slumping export/import figures on a year-on-year basis.

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After having experienced 17 straight months of contraction in the manufacturing sector, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey rose to a reading of 50.6 in March 2016 from 48.7 in the preceding month (a reading above 50 indicates expansion of manufacturing activity) according to a statement released on Friday (01/04). This is very positive news although Indonesia's export performance remains in a state of decline. Manufacturing expansion was primarily caused by a rise in domestic demand.

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The government of Indonesia unveiled its eleventh economic stimulus package. The country's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution presented the package at the State Palace in Jakarta on Tuesday (29/03). Indonesia's latest stimulus package includes a lower tax rate on property purchased by local real estate investment trusts, the harmonization of customs checks across the nation's ports (curtailing dwell time), government subsidies for loans taken up Indonesia's export-oriented small and medium enterprises, and the drawing of a roadmap for the nation's pharmaceutical industry.

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Research institution Supply Chain Indonesia, which mainly focuses on logistics matters, requests the government to reevaluate its plan to use three ports in Banten (West Java) to take over some of the workload of Jakarta's Tanjung Priok port, Indonesia's largest seaport. Due to inefficiencies at Tanjung Priok, which handles about two-thirds of Indonesia's total international trade, dwelling time at this seaport is high and this gives rise to port congestion and high logistics costs. The government therefore wants three ports in Banten to support Tanjung Priok's trade activities.

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Indonesia's current account deficit is expected to rise to USD $26 billion, or 2.6 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), in 2016. This increase is expected because rising investment and infrastructure development in Indonesia will require more imports from abroad. In 2015 Indonesia's current account deficit was recorded at USD $17.8 billion (2.06 percent of GDP), improving from a USD $27.5 billion deficit (3.09 percent of GDP) in the preceding year (when Indonesia touched a record high current account deficit, and which seriously undermined investors' confidence in the nation's assets).

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Indonesia's trade surplus was better than expected in February 2016. Today, Indonesia's Statistics agency (BPS) announced that the nation's trade surplus was recorded at USD $1.14 billion in the second month of the year, considerably higher compared to the revised USD $10 million surplus Indonesia recorded in the preceding month. Suryamin, Chairman of BPS, said this surplus was the biggest February surplus in the last five years. Another positive sign is that - although continuing to decline in February - the contraction of Indonesia's exports in February occurred at the slowest rate since October 2014.

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By September 2016 the Indonesian government plans to have revised regulations regarding exports of mineral ore, part of Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law). Per January 2014 mineral ore exports from Indonesia should have been banned altogether as the government aims to boost domestic smelter development and reduce the country's dependence on raw material exports. However, a last-minute regulation, signed in January 2014, softened this ban and allowed exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead, and iron ore concentrates until 2017. Now the government may decide for a two-year delay up to 2019.

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While many are relieved to see a trade surplus for Indonesia in August 2019, the picture does not look too positive when we delve a bit deeper in the data, and shows that global conditions are far from positive amid contracting international trade and subdued global economic growth (with ongoing tariff tensions between the United States and China being a key issue).

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After nearly nine years of talks and negotiations (although communication between both sides had been put to a halt - amid diplomatic tensions – at more than one occasion over these nine years) Indonesia and Australia finally signed the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA) in Jakarta on 4 March 2019. It is an agreement that launches a brand new chapter in economic relations and cooperation between Australia and Indonesia.

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Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), Indonesia recorded a USD $227.1 million trade surplus in September 2018. Although it is a very small surplus, it did lead to some optimism. After all, Indonesia had recorded big monthly trade deficits of USD $2.0 billion and USD $944.2 million in July 2018 and August 2018, respectively.

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Based on the latest data of Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade deficit was recorded at USD $1.02 billion in August 2018. Although improving from the USD $2.03 billion trade deficit one month earlier (which constituted Indonesia’s biggest monthly trade deficit in five years), the deficit remains robust and therefore causes persistent concerns about the country’s current account deficit and the rupiah exchange rate.

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The trade balance of Indonesia showed another deficit in February 2018, the nation's third consecutive monthly trade deficit. Based on data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), the country's total exports reached USD $14.1 billion in February, up 10.1 percent on a year-on-year (y/y) basis, while total imports grew 25.2 percent (y/y) to USD $14.2 billion.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said it expects to see another monthly trade deficit - approximately USD $230 million - in February 2018. If so, it would be the third straight monthly trade deficit for Southeast Asia's largest economy after a USD $220 million deficit in December 2017 and a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018 (the latter being the country's highest monthly deficit since April 2014).

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In line with the increase in domestic economic activity, Indonesia's trade balance recorded a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018. The deficit was particularly attributed to a shrinking surplus of the country's non-oil & gas trade balance. Although Indonesia's oil & gas deficit declined in the first month of 2018, it was not enough to offset the impact of the shrinking non-oil & gas surplus. Hence the country posted its second consecutive monthly trade deficit.

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Through Trade Ministry Regulation No. 82/2017 on the Terms of Use of National Shipping and Insurance Companies for the Export and Import of Certain Goods the Indonesian government requires exporters of crude palm oil (CPO), coal and rice to use ships that are owned by local sea transport companies as well as to use domestic insurance. This regulation will come into effect, gradually, per May 2018.

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In the last month of 2017 Indonesia posted a USD $270 million trade deficit according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). This result goes against the prediction of most analysts, who expected to see another trade surplus for Southeast Asia's largest economy. Indonesia posted a trade surplus in all months of 2017 with the exception of July and December.

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Earlier this week, the central banks of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), Thailand (Bank of Thailand) jointly announced the launch of the local currency settlement framework. This framework aims at boosting the use of local currencies in transactions (specifically related to trade and investment) conducted between Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in an effort to reduce these countries' dependence on the US dollar.

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