On Friday morning (05/02) Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia's economy expanded 5.04 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2015, slightly higher than most analysts had been expecting. Full-year 2015 gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 4.79 percent (y/y). Although this figure is in line with expectations (which ranged between 4.70 and 4.80 percent), the growth pace still constitutes a six-year low for Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. Meanwhile, BPS also announced it had revised Q3-2015 GDP up from 4.73 (y/y) to 4.74 (y/y).

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Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $230 million in December 2015 as imports (USD $12.12 billion) exceeded exports (USD $11.89 billion), the second monthly trade deficit in 2015. Overall, the country's trade balance shows a surplus of USD $7.51 billion in 2015, significantly improving from the USD $2.2 billion trade deficit in the preceding year. But despite posting a good trade surplus in full-year 2015, a closer look at the data still reveals weak global and domestic conditions.

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Gejolak ekonomi yang telah mendorong pertumbuhan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) ke level terendah dalam 25 tahun terakhir telah berdampak langsung pada Indonesia karena RRT adalah mitra dagang utama Indonesia. Kekuatiran akan perlambatan ekonomi RRT (dan dampak perlambatan ini pada ekonomi dunia) bertahan pada tahun 2016 karena Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) menurun selama 10 bulan berturut-turut di Desember 2015 (di 48,2), sedangkan pembacaan jasa layanan untuk bulan Desember turun ke level terendah dalam 17 bulan terakhir (50,2).

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Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia mengeluarkan pernyataan pada hari Minggu (3/1) yang menyatakan bahwa Indonesia gagal memenuhi sebagian besar target ekonomi yang ditetapkan dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBN-P) 2015. Alasan utama dari lemahnya kinerja adalah harga komoditi yang rendah, pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lesu, perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), dan arus keluar modal yang dipicu oleh pengetatan kebijakan moneter Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS). Hanya realisasi inflasi dan hasil treasury yield yang sejalan dengan target pemerintah.

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Dengan akan berakhirnya tahun 2015, maka ada baiknya kita melihat tantangan yang dihadapi Indonesia tahun ini dan apakah tantangan ini akan tetap ada di tahun 2016. Singkatnya, kami percaya bahwa tantangan eksternal yang ada saat ini akan bertahan di tahun yang baru. Pertumbuhan ekonomi negara ini diproyeksikan melaju menjadi 5,3% pada basis year-on year (y/y) pada tahun 2016 dari perkiraan 4,7% (y/y) pada tahun 2015 (tahun kelima berturut-turut perlambatan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto), tetapi pertumbuhan ini terutama disebabkan oleh peningkatan pengeluaran pemerintah.

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Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo) optimis bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia akan mencapai 5,5% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2016, angka yang lebih tinggi dari proyeksi yang ditetapkan Pemerintah Pusat dan bank sentral. Optimisme Apindo berdasarkan pada prediksi bahwa investasi publik dan swasta akan meningkat tahun depan karena iklim investasi yang membaik di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini, yang disebabkan oleh serangkaian paket stimulus ekonomi yang diumumkan Pemerintah di beberapa bulan terakhir dan juga stabilitas politik dan sosial.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia to 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015 and to 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2016 from previously 4.9 percent (y/y) and 5.4 percent (y/y), respectively. In its latest report on Indonesia, the ADB cited that problems related to budget disbursement and the nation’s weak export performance were the main factors to cut its growth projection for Indonesia - for both 2015 and 2016 - by 0.1 percentage point. In September 2015, the ADB had already cut its growth forecast for Indonesia on the back of negative effects of China’s economic slowdown.

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After having been delayed for several weeks, the Indonesian government today unveiled the seventh stimulus package. The series of stimulus packages are aimed at boosting economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest nation amid slowing growth in China (the primary trading partner of Indonesia), low commodity prices (Indonesia's primary export products), and a looming US interest rate hike later this month (possibly triggering heavy capital outflows from Indonesia).

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The latest consumer survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) indicates that consumer confidence in Indonesia has improved - turning pessimism into optimism - in November on expectations of better economic conditions. Bank Indonesia's consumer confidence index, which is based on 1,700 household respondents in six major cities in Indonesia, rose to 103.7 points in November from 99.3 points in the preceding month. A reading below 100.0 signals that consumers are pessimistic.

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Both the Center of Reform on Economics (Core) and Aberdeen Asset Management Ltd expect economic growth in Indonesia to accelerate in 2016 after Southeast Asia's largest economy may post a seven-year low GDP growth figure of 4.7 percent in 2015. Both institutions believe that household and government spending will accelerate next year, while recently unveiled economic stimulus packages (involving deregulation and tax incentives) will create a more attractive investment climate, thus both foreign and domestic investment is expected to grow.

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There are reasons to be optimistic about Indonesia’s economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2021. Obviously, the underlying reason being that new confirmed COVID-19 infections have not been far from zero in Indonesia throughout the final quarter of the year. As a consequence, the government of Indonesia did not need to impose tough restrictions, hence economic activity is allowed to blossom.

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The economic rebound in the second quarter of 2021 – with a +7.07 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth pace – was great for Indonesia, albeit it is obviously related to the ‘low base effect’ (as Indonesia had hit its rock bottom in the same quarter one year earlier). But what about the future, or more precisely: Q3-2021?

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On 05 August 2020, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2020. These data, which were highly anticipated among analysts and policymakers, are crucial to comprehend how – and to what extend – the self-imposed social and business restrictions (made in response to the COVID-19 pandemic) have impacted on the Indonesian economy.

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The most recent published outlooks for global economic growth and global trade are more pessimistic than their earlier versions, with the main reason being that there is no quick solution to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. On the contrary, there is a high degree of uncertainty about when business can resume as usual. And, the closer we get to 2021, the less rosy outlooks are becoming for next year.

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On 5 May 2020 Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), a non-departmental government agency, released the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia for the year 2020. These data were highly anticipated as policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders are particularly interested in finding out to what extent damage has been done to the Indonesian economy by the self-imposed restrictions.

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In mid-April 2020 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest ‘World Economic Outlook’ report. It is in fact not a complete report. Considering the global economy has changed dramatically over the past months, the IMF’s previous update of the World Economic Outlook (released in January 2020) simply had no validity anymore, and therefore the IMF released one new chapter in mid-April 2020 (with the full report set to follow in May 2020).

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As expected, Indonesia’s full-year 2019 economic growth came in well below the central government’s 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth target. Based on the data that were released by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) in early February 2020, the Indonesian economy expanded at a pace of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2019.

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Given a variety of recent events, Indonesia has seemingly entered a liminal phase in its development trajectory, suggesting that its economic vulnerability will be tested in new ways. The present circumstances should be understood as a particular test for the ability of policy initiatives to temper the effects of perturbing exogenous factors and demand shocks to the overall economy.

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In early May 2019 Indonesia’s statistics agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced that the nation’s economic growth pace was recorded at 5.07 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2019.

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In early November 2018 the Central Statistics Bureau (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2018. Although it means a slowdown from the 5.27 percent (y/y) growth pace in the preceding quarter, the Q3-2018 GDP growth rate actually slightly exceeded our expectations.

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