It is expected to be another difficult day for Indonesian stocks and the rupiah as there are few to none positive market sentiments that can support these assets on today’s trading day. Wall Street closed lower on Thursday (23/07) for the third consecutive day on disappointing financial results of several big companies, dragging down indices in the East. Commodity indices continue to fall (oil returning to bear market on resilient US output and rising OPEC supply). Meanwhile, sharp rupiah depreciation makes investors nervous.

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Rupiah kembali menyentuh batasan psikologis Rp 13.400 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, mata uang Indonesia telah melemah 0,22% menjadi Rp 13.405 per dollar AS pada pukul 11:22 WIB pada hari Kamis (23/07), sebuah level yang terakhir disentuh rupiah saat Indonesia masih kena dampak Krisis Finasial Asia pada tahun 1998. Melewati batasan psikologis ini bisa berarti bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) akan kembali mengintervensi untuk mendukung rupiah dalam rangka melindungi kepercayaan terhadap rupiah.

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Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah terus melemah pada hari Senin (20/07). Mata uang Indonesia melemah 0,31% menjadi Rp 13.395 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), level terlemahnya sejak 1998 waktu negara ini dilanda oleh Krisis Finansial Asia. Sementara itu, aktivitas Bank Indonesia masih terbatas sampai hari Rabu (22/07) karena libur umum (perayaan Idul Fitri), menyebabkan bank sentral untuk sementara tidak mempublikasikan Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR).

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Indonesia mencatat surplus perdagangan 477 juta dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada bulan Juni 2015, surplus perdagangan ke-7 secara beruntun. Meskipun begitu, menurut data terakhir dari BPS, diterbitkan pada hari Rabu (14/07), ekspor Indonesia pada Juni ini jatuh 12,8% (year-on-year) menjadi 13,4 miliar dollar AS, sementara impor jatuh 17,4% (year-on-year) menjadi 12,9 miliar dollar AS. Angka-angka ini menunjukkan bahwa surplus perdagangan Indonesia terutama disebabkan oleh permintaan domestik yang lemah dan lebih melambat daripada permintaan global (yang terus melambat juga). Kondisi ini meningkatkan kekuatiran mengenai pertumbuhan perekonomian domestik dan global.

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Seperti yang telah diprediksi, Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada hari Selasa (14/07). BI rate yang menjadi acuan dipertahankan pada 7,50%, sementara fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Bank Indonesia meyakini bahwa kondisi tingkat suku bunga saat ini sejalan dengan upaya untuk menurunkan inflasi dan juga mendukung rupiah yang melemah menjelang perkiraan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) di kemudian hari pada tahun ini.

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Sejalan dengan tren global, saham Indonesia terus naik pada Selasa (14/07). Kebanyakan indeks-indeks saham (di seluruh dunia) terus bergerak dalam wilayah hijau setelah Yunani yang dibebani banyak hutang mencapai kesepakatan dengan kreditor internasionalnya - setelah pertemuan darurat selama 17 jam - untuk sebuah paket penghematan yang akan tetap mempertahankan Yunani di dalam zona euro. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) telah naik 0,60% menjadi 4.923,36 poin pada pukul 11:45 WIB pada hari Selasa.

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Kebanyakan analis setuju bahwa Bank Indonesia akan mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga yang sama dalam pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang dijadwalkan untuk dilaksanakan pada hari Selasa 14 Juli 2015. Bank sentral Indonesia dipediksi akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00% karena tingkat inflasi Indonesia telah meningkat cepat baru-baru ini sementara rupiah mengalami tekanan karena faktor-faktor eksternal.

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Pengiriman kopi Indonesia ke Eropa telah naik karena melemahnya rupiah dan panen kopi yang lebih banyak. Ekspor biji robusta dari Pulau Jawa bertumbuh 22,1% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Juni 2015. Sementara itu, para pedagang Eropa memprediksi pengiriman yang besar akan berlanjut di bulan Juli. Rupiah Indonesia adalah mata uang negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk yang dicatat Bloomberg, melemah hampir 7,2% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) sejauh ini di tahun ini. Sisi positif dari mata uang yang lemah adalah ekspor negara ini menjadi lebih atraktif.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), predicts that the current economic turmoil in the Eurozone, caused by the Greek debt crisis, will impact on the stability of developing countries, including Indonesia. Although in terms of both trade and investment there should not be a real impact originating from Greek turmoil, the perception of macroeconomic stability will be somewhat hit on the back of global uncertainty. In line with most markets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday (06/07).

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Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate moved within limited range on Wednesday. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 11,436 per US dollar. Since Thursday (10/04), the rupiah has had to cope with pressures as Indonesia's legislative election was unable to provide political certainty. On the other hand, the country's improved economic fundamentals - easing inflation and the narrowing current account deficit - have resulted in capital inflows, thus supporting the rupiah.

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On Monday (14/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.23 percent to IDR 11,440 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. This performance was in line with most other emerging Asian currencies, which weakened against the US dollar due to broad strength in the greenback as well as risk aversion. The rupiah - still the best performing emerging Asian currency so far this year - depreciated on dollar demand from local importers (while state-run banks were reported to engage in rupiah buying).

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the March 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate extends its depreciation on Friday (11/04) after market participants showed their concern about Indonesia's legislative election result on Wednesday (09/04). As the election did not result in a clear victory for the PDI-P (the main opposition party which intends to nominate popular Jakarta Governor Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo as presidential candidate), the fragmented outcome is expected to lead to continued political uncertainty ahead of Indonesia's presidential election on 9 July 2014.

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Most emerging market currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, appreciated against the US dollar on Tuesday (08/04) due to carry trade (meaning the selling of low-yield currencies for higher-yielding assets) and expected stimulus from China's government to boost its economy (Chinese shares in fact gained 2.2 percent on this stimulus speculation). The rupiah appreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 11,289 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, partly due to variety of domestic factors.

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Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to move sideways in the first quarter of 2014. Finance Minister Chatib Basri forecasts a growth rate of between 5.7 and 5.8 percent, similar to the growth pace that was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013 (5.78 percent). Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), economic growth in Indonesia has slowed since the second quarter of 2013. In Q2-2013, Indonesia's GDP expanded by 5.89 percent, thereby ending a ten-quarter streak of +6 percentage growth.

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The rate of inflation in March 2014 demonstrated that the ongoing downward trend persists. In the reporting month of March 2014, inflation was recorded at 0.08 percent (month-to-month) or 7.32 percent (year-on-year), down from the rates recorded in the previous two months at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) in January and 0.26 percent (mtm) or 7.75 percent (yoy) in February. The declining inflation trend is further evidenced by a lower rate recorded in March 2014 than the historical average over the past six years at 0.24 percent (mtm).

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At 15:00 local Jakarta time on Tuesday (01/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate as well as the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) have shown a positive performance so far. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.64 percent to IDR 11,288 per US dollar, while the IHSG climbed 2.15 percent to 4,871.38. A number of internal and external factors contributed to this remarkable performance today.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 11,447 per US dollar on Thursday (27/03) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency's strong performance in February and the first half of March, supported by Indonesia's easing current account deficit and inflation, has met resistance due to global concern about the aggressive US Federal Reserve monetary tightening (winding down its quantitative easing program by another chunk of USD $10 billion as well as possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016).

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On Wednesday (26/03), most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar as the region's shares hit a two-week high on upbeat US economic data in combination with reduced concern over the crisis in Crimea (Ukraine). However, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate was one of the exceptions to this trend on today's trading day. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,412 at 16:15 local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan recovered some of its earlier losses.

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