Asian stocks are again in deep red territory on Thursday (14/01), led by Chinese shares (which are on track to enter a bear market) as well as Japanese shares. It means that the rebound that had occurred earlier this week - caused by positive export data from China - was short-lived. The continued slide of oil prices (below USD $30 per barrel) and turmoil in China cause money to flow away from equity and fragile emerging market currencies.

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On Wednesday (13/01) Indonesia's central bank is set to start its monthly policy meeting. A novelty this year is that the monthly policy meetings of Bank Indonesia will take two days instead of one. Another interesting novelty is that Bank Indonesia invited Indonesia's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution to attend the central bank's first policy meeting of 2016. Analyst opinions about whether Bank Indonesia has room to cut its relatively tight monetary policy are mixed.

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Penjualan secara besar-besaran terus berlangsung di Asia pada Senin (11/01). Indeks-indeks saham di Asia - yang dipimpin oleh Shanghai Composite Index Republik Rakyat Tingkok (RRT) - jatuh parah. Inflasi RRT yang teredam pada bulan Desember, Shanghai Composite Index yang terjun 5,33% hari ini, turunnya harga minyak, dan jatuhnya saham di Wall Street akhir pekan lalu (saham Amerika Serikat mengalami minggu terburuknya dalam empat tahun terakhir), membuat investor mencari aset yang aman (safe haven) seperti emas, yen Jepang dan dollar AS. Sementara itu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia turun 1,78% menjadi 4.465,48 poin.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) mengumumkan bahwa cadangan devisa negara ini telah meningkat tajam pada bulan Desember 2015. Pada akhir bulan terakhir tahun 2015 aset devisa tercatat sebesar 105,9 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), naik dari 100,2 miliar dollar AS di bulan sebelumnya. Ini adalah hasil yang luar biasa karena ekonomi global dan domestik masih terganggu oleh ketidakpastian dan arus modal yang volatil (pada bulan Desember Federal Reserve akhirnya menaikkan Fed Fund Rate utamanya sebesar 25 poin basis).

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Saham dan mata uang di seluruh Asia berada di bawah tekanan berat pada hari Kamis (07/01) setelah bank sentral Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) menetapkan kurs yuan 0,51% lebih rendah (di 6.564,6 per dollar Amerika Serikat). Akibatnya, saham RRT anjlok lebih dari 7% (memicu mekanisme circuit-breaking baru - untuk hari kedua di minggu ini - 30 menit setelah perdagangan dibuka hari ini). Saham Asia juga lemah dikarenakan kerugian besar di Eropa dan di Wall Street semalam. Pasar bereaksi terhadap harga minyak yang turun ke level terendah dalam lebih dari tujuh tahun terakhir menjadi 33,97 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per barel.

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Meskipun kebanyakan pasar saham di Asia masih di wilayah merah, melanjutkan penurunan pada hari Senin, saham Indonesia dan rupiah berhasil melambung pada Selasa (5/1). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,70% menjadi 4.557,82 poin. Sementara itu, rupiah Indonesia naik 0,37% menjadi Rp 13.892 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Apa yang terjadi pada perdagangan hari ini dan mengapa ada perbedaan antara aset Indonesia dan tren Asian secara umum?

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Berlawan dengan harapan, saham Indonesia dan rupiah memiliki awal yang lemah di tahun yang baru. Pada hari Senin (4/1) Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,46% menjadi 4.525,92 poin, sementara rupiah terdepresiasi 0,82% menjadi Rp 13.943 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Kinerja saham Indonesia ini sejalan dengan kinerja saham di seluruh dunia. Perdagangan saham Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) bahkan dihentikan dua kali karena indeksnya merosot. Apa yang terjadi hari ini?

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Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia mengeluarkan pernyataan pada hari Minggu (3/1) yang menyatakan bahwa Indonesia gagal memenuhi sebagian besar target ekonomi yang ditetapkan dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBN-P) 2015. Alasan utama dari lemahnya kinerja adalah harga komoditi yang rendah, pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lesu, perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), dan arus keluar modal yang dipicu oleh pengetatan kebijakan moneter Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS). Hanya realisasi inflasi dan hasil treasury yield yang sejalan dengan target pemerintah.

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Meskipun tantangan tetap ada, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) diperkirakan naik pada tahun 2016, melebihi level 5.000 poin. Tahun lalu IHSG turun 12,13% menjadi ditutup pada 4.593,01 poin. Khususnya untuk sektor infrastruktur, perbankan, konsumsi, semen, properti dan konstruksi di Indonesia diprediksi akan memiliki kinerja yang baik tahun ini karena percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik yang didukung oleh pengeluaran pemerintah dan paket stimulus ekonomi baru-baru ini.

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Hari perdagangan terakhir tahun 2015 di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) telah berlalu dan sekarang saatnya untuk melihat kembali kinerja Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah selama tahun 2015. Tahun 2015 merupakan tahun yang hektik, ditandai dengan volatilitas tinggi karena ketidakpastian tentang waktu kenaikan tingkat suku bunga AS (yang akhirnya diputuskan oleh Federal Reserve pada bulan Desember 2015) dan perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT).

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On Wednesday (05/02), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that the economy of Indonesia expanded 5.78 percent in 2013. This result implies that in 2013 Indonesia experienced the slowest pace of GDP growth since its 4.63 percentage growth in 2009. However, this slowing growth was basically self-inflicted as both the Indonesian government and central bank (Bank Indonesia) used various monetary and fiscal policies to curb economic expansion in order to tackle several financial issues.

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Despite higher car prices due to the depreciating rupiah exchange rate, domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 11 percent to 107,496 in January 2014 compared to the same month last year. January sales were particularly supported by sales of the low cost green car (LCGC) and low multipurpose vehicle (LMPV). Both these car types enjoy high popularity in Indonesia. In 2013, the Indonesian government provided tax incentives for the establishment of a domestic LCGC industry.

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In the last month of 2013, Indonesia's trade balance posted a surplus of USD $1.52 billion, almost twice as high as economists had previously predicted. The December surplus implied Indonesia's third consecutive monthly trade surplus and fifth monthly trade surplus in full year 2013. However, considering the whole year, the trade balance still posted a deficit of USD $4.06 billion in 2013 as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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Despite the release of positive macroeconomic data on Monday (03/02), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,240 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January and put pressure on stocks and currencies in emerging markets. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's further reduction of its quantitative easing program (to USD $65 billion per month) continues to strengthen the US dollar at the expense of emerging currencies.

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On Wednesday 5 February 2014, Statistics Indonesia (BPS, a non-departmental government institute) is expected to release Indonesia's official GDP growth figure for the year 2013. It is estimated that the outcome will be the lowest GDP growth figure since 2009 when Southeast Asia's largest economy grew 4.6 percent after feeling the impact of the global financial crisis. In 2013, again, Indonesia felt the negative influence of external troubles. And in combination with domestic factors, Indonesia's economic growth is expected to be around 5.7 percent in 2013.

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In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,238 per US dollar on Monday (27/01). The decline of the rupiah was in line with today's trend of weakening Asia Pacific currencies (against the US dollar). Meanwhile, the central bank's mid rate (the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or JISDOR) depreciated 0.17 percent to IDR 12,198 per US dollar. Market participants are concerned about Indonesia's January 2014 inflation and further Federal Reserve tapering.

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In the fourth week of January, Bank Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate (the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or JISDOR) depreciated 0.41 percent against the US dollar. This weakening trend of the rupiah was caused by various factors. Most importantly, the US dollar has been gaining strength against emerging currencies, including Indonesia, as speculation emerged that the Federal Reserve will curtail its massive monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing) by more than just USD $10 billion per month.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 12,181 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (24/01). Asian currencies felt the impact of a contraction of Chinese manufacturing as HSBC’s preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to 49.6 in January 2014. Meanwhile, US existing homes sales in December were best since 2006 while US jobless claims were near a six-week low. These data fuel speculation that the Fed will continue to wind down its bond-buying program.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.18 percent to IDR 12,165 at 16.30 local Jakarta time on Thursday (23/01), based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Main reason for this decline is concern that Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) will maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent despite an expected increase in January inflation due to massive floods as well as higher industrial electricity and LPG prices. Indonesia's January inflation rate is estimated to be around 1 percent.

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The forming of a morning doji star indeed indicated that there was potential for continued upward movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) despite the profit taking actions that emerged and limited the gain of the index (particularly those stocks that went into the overbought area). Factors that contributed positively to today's (21/01) performance of the Jakarta Composite Index were rising Asian stock markets and a rebound in commodity stocks as a number of commodities recorded slightly higher prices.

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