Indonesia's exports of plastics and plastic products fell 18.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015 to USD $2.25 billion from USD $2.76 billion in the preceding year. This decline was caused by weak global demand for plastic, falling selling prices and the low competitiveness of Indonesia's plastics and plastic products. Also in terms of volume Indonesia's plastic exports declined. Based on the latest data from Indonesia's Trade Ministry, the nation's plastics export volume fell 5.58 percent (y/y) to 1.39 million tons last year.

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Although global media focus on the vicious terrorist attacks that occurred today in Jakarta, the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia) made a surprise move by cutting its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the January policy meeting. It is a surprise as Bank Indonesia emphasized repeatedly that it is primarily focused on rupiah stability while - amid severe market volatility (due to economic turmoil in China) - the rupiah remains under pressure.

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Asian stocks are again in deep red territory on Thursday (14/01), led by Chinese shares (which are on track to enter a bear market) as well as Japanese shares. It means that the rebound that had occurred earlier this week - caused by positive export data from China - was short-lived. The continued slide of oil prices (below USD $30 per barrel) and turmoil in China cause money to flow away from equity and fragile emerging market currencies.

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On Wednesday (13/01) Indonesia's central bank is set to start its monthly policy meeting. A novelty this year is that the monthly policy meetings of Bank Indonesia will take two days instead of one. Another interesting novelty is that Bank Indonesia invited Indonesia's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution to attend the central bank's first policy meeting of 2016. Analyst opinions about whether Bank Indonesia has room to cut its relatively tight monetary policy are mixed.

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Penjualan secara besar-besaran terus berlangsung di Asia pada Senin (11/01). Indeks-indeks saham di Asia - yang dipimpin oleh Shanghai Composite Index Republik Rakyat Tingkok (RRT) - jatuh parah. Inflasi RRT yang teredam pada bulan Desember, Shanghai Composite Index yang terjun 5,33% hari ini, turunnya harga minyak, dan jatuhnya saham di Wall Street akhir pekan lalu (saham Amerika Serikat mengalami minggu terburuknya dalam empat tahun terakhir), membuat investor mencari aset yang aman (safe haven) seperti emas, yen Jepang dan dollar AS. Sementara itu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia turun 1,78% menjadi 4.465,48 poin.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) mengumumkan bahwa cadangan devisa negara ini telah meningkat tajam pada bulan Desember 2015. Pada akhir bulan terakhir tahun 2015 aset devisa tercatat sebesar 105,9 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), naik dari 100,2 miliar dollar AS di bulan sebelumnya. Ini adalah hasil yang luar biasa karena ekonomi global dan domestik masih terganggu oleh ketidakpastian dan arus modal yang volatil (pada bulan Desember Federal Reserve akhirnya menaikkan Fed Fund Rate utamanya sebesar 25 poin basis).

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Saham dan mata uang di seluruh Asia berada di bawah tekanan berat pada hari Kamis (07/01) setelah bank sentral Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) menetapkan kurs yuan 0,51% lebih rendah (di 6.564,6 per dollar Amerika Serikat). Akibatnya, saham RRT anjlok lebih dari 7% (memicu mekanisme circuit-breaking baru - untuk hari kedua di minggu ini - 30 menit setelah perdagangan dibuka hari ini). Saham Asia juga lemah dikarenakan kerugian besar di Eropa dan di Wall Street semalam. Pasar bereaksi terhadap harga minyak yang turun ke level terendah dalam lebih dari tujuh tahun terakhir menjadi 33,97 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per barel.

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Meskipun kebanyakan pasar saham di Asia masih di wilayah merah, melanjutkan penurunan pada hari Senin, saham Indonesia dan rupiah berhasil melambung pada Selasa (5/1). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,70% menjadi 4.557,82 poin. Sementara itu, rupiah Indonesia naik 0,37% menjadi Rp 13.892 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Apa yang terjadi pada perdagangan hari ini dan mengapa ada perbedaan antara aset Indonesia dan tren Asian secara umum?

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Berlawan dengan harapan, saham Indonesia dan rupiah memiliki awal yang lemah di tahun yang baru. Pada hari Senin (4/1) Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,46% menjadi 4.525,92 poin, sementara rupiah terdepresiasi 0,82% menjadi Rp 13.943 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Kinerja saham Indonesia ini sejalan dengan kinerja saham di seluruh dunia. Perdagangan saham Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) bahkan dihentikan dua kali karena indeksnya merosot. Apa yang terjadi hari ini?

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Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia mengeluarkan pernyataan pada hari Minggu (3/1) yang menyatakan bahwa Indonesia gagal memenuhi sebagian besar target ekonomi yang ditetapkan dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBN-P) 2015. Alasan utama dari lemahnya kinerja adalah harga komoditi yang rendah, pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lesu, perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), dan arus keluar modal yang dipicu oleh pengetatan kebijakan moneter Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS). Hanya realisasi inflasi dan hasil treasury yield yang sejalan dengan target pemerintah.

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In the last month of 2013, Indonesia's trade balance posted a surplus of USD $1.52 billion, almost twice as high as economists had previously predicted. The December surplus implied Indonesia's third consecutive monthly trade surplus and fifth monthly trade surplus in full year 2013. However, considering the whole year, the trade balance still posted a deficit of USD $4.06 billion in 2013 as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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Despite the release of positive macroeconomic data on Monday (03/02), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,240 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January and put pressure on stocks and currencies in emerging markets. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's further reduction of its quantitative easing program (to USD $65 billion per month) continues to strengthen the US dollar at the expense of emerging currencies.

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On Wednesday 5 February 2014, Statistics Indonesia (BPS, a non-departmental government institute) is expected to release Indonesia's official GDP growth figure for the year 2013. It is estimated that the outcome will be the lowest GDP growth figure since 2009 when Southeast Asia's largest economy grew 4.6 percent after feeling the impact of the global financial crisis. In 2013, again, Indonesia felt the negative influence of external troubles. And in combination with domestic factors, Indonesia's economic growth is expected to be around 5.7 percent in 2013.

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In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,238 per US dollar on Monday (27/01). The decline of the rupiah was in line with today's trend of weakening Asia Pacific currencies (against the US dollar). Meanwhile, the central bank's mid rate (the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or JISDOR) depreciated 0.17 percent to IDR 12,198 per US dollar. Market participants are concerned about Indonesia's January 2014 inflation and further Federal Reserve tapering.

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In the fourth week of January, Bank Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate (the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or JISDOR) depreciated 0.41 percent against the US dollar. This weakening trend of the rupiah was caused by various factors. Most importantly, the US dollar has been gaining strength against emerging currencies, including Indonesia, as speculation emerged that the Federal Reserve will curtail its massive monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing) by more than just USD $10 billion per month.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 12,181 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (24/01). Asian currencies felt the impact of a contraction of Chinese manufacturing as HSBC’s preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to 49.6 in January 2014. Meanwhile, US existing homes sales in December were best since 2006 while US jobless claims were near a six-week low. These data fuel speculation that the Fed will continue to wind down its bond-buying program.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.18 percent to IDR 12,165 at 16.30 local Jakarta time on Thursday (23/01), based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Main reason for this decline is concern that Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) will maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent despite an expected increase in January inflation due to massive floods as well as higher industrial electricity and LPG prices. Indonesia's January inflation rate is estimated to be around 1 percent.

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The forming of a morning doji star indeed indicated that there was potential for continued upward movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) despite the profit taking actions that emerged and limited the gain of the index (particularly those stocks that went into the overbought area). Factors that contributed positively to today's (21/01) performance of the Jakarta Composite Index were rising Asian stock markets and a rebound in commodity stocks as a number of commodities recorded slightly higher prices.

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The movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) on today's trading day (20/01) was rather volatile. Investors returned to the market after the fall of the index was limited at the end of last week. However, China's slowing economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 (7.7 percent) brought negative market sentiments. Still, foreign investors were net buyers of Indonesian stocks today and in combination with an appreciating rupiah exchange rate, the index rose 0.44 percent to 4,431.57 points.

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Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate had depreciated 0.18 percent to IDR 12,113 per US dollar at 14:45 local Jakarta time on Monday (20/01). The most important factor that caused this negative performance was China's slowing economic growth in quarter IV-2013. In the fourth quarter of 2013, China's GDP grew 7.7 percent, down from 7.8 percent in the previous quarter. This slowing growth indicates that China's economic 'recovery' is still fragile (China is among the five most important trade partners of Indonesia).

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