There is a big possibility that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will raise its benchmark interest rate (the 7-day Reverse Repo Rate) at the monthly policy meeting in May (scheduled for 16-17 May 2018). Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo confirmed that Bank Indonesia is currently preparing "strict and consistent monetary policy measures, including the adjustment of the benchmark rate, as the central bank gives priority to market confidence and macroeconomic stability".

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that the nation's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD $124.9 billion at the end of April 2018, down from USD $126.0 billion one month earlier. This decline is in line with expectations as the central bank had already confirmed it is intervening in the market to defend the Indonesian rupiah amid broad-based US dollar strength.

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Indonesian stocks, the rupiah and bonds are all under heavy pressure on Tuesday (08/05). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 2.12 percent to 5,760.35 points in the first trading session of the day. This performance is in stark contrast to most Asian stocks that are trading in green territory today. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah has slipped above the IDR 14,000 per US dollar level. Lets take a look why.

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Indonesia again led losses among Asian stock markets on Friday (04/05). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.13 percent to close at 5,792.35 points, its lowest position since August 2017. Most stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were in the red zone today as investors lack risk appetite ahead of the release of US payrolls data (due later today). Analysts expect to see a strong figure. Meanwhile, US unemployment is also expected to have eased slightly.

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In line with expectations the US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 1.50 - 1.75 percent at the two-day May policy meeting (1-2 May 2018). The US central bank also said it expects the recent rise in inflation (approaching the Fed's target) to be sustained, thus markets are increasingly expecting an interest rate hike at the next policy meeting (scheduled for 12-13 June).

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Indonesia Investments expects to see Bank Indonesia raising its benchmark interest rate at least once in 2018 in order to relieve pressures on the Indonesian rupiah. Rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve will implement four interest rate hikes in 2018, while the 10-year US treasury yield  passed beyond the 3 percent line, have resulted in major pressures on emerging market assets, including Indonesia's rupiah and stocks.

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Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index continued to be plagued by a sell-off on Thursday (26/04) after already having fallen 2.40 percent on the preceding trading day. Today the benchmark index of Indonesia plunged another 2.81 percent to 5,909.20 points amid climbing US treasury yields (passing beyond the psychological boundary of three percent).

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah remained under heavy pressure on Wednesday (25/04) after the benchmark ten-year US bond yields passed beyond the 3 percent level (for the first time since early 2014), thus lifting the US dollar and causing capital outflows from emerging markets. While most Asian stocks are trading in red territory today, Indonesian stocks are the most badly affected. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index tumbled 2.40 percent to 6,079.85 points.

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The Indonesian rupiah is approaching the IDR 14,000 per US dollar level, the currency's weakest position since mid-December 2015. On Monday (23/04) the rupiah depreciated 0.59 percent to IDR 13,975 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Considering the fundamentals of the domestic economy are strong (despite some room for concern about Indonesia's widening current account deficit), it are external factors that put pressure on the rupiah.

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The Indonesian rupiah depreciated heavily against the US dollar on Friday (20/04) amid the release of positive US economic data, a rise in the benchmark 10-year US bond yields, while the US Federal Reserve may remain on track to push for monetary tightening as concerns about geopolitical trouble and a global trade war ease. Meanwhile, the start of the US earnings season was promising with 88 percent of released reports either meeting or exceeding consensus (so far about 15 percent of US companies have released their corporate earnings reports).

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The movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) on today's trading day (20/01) was rather volatile. Investors returned to the market after the fall of the index was limited at the end of last week. However, China's slowing economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 (7.7 percent) brought negative market sentiments. Still, foreign investors were net buyers of Indonesian stocks today and in combination with an appreciating rupiah exchange rate, the index rose 0.44 percent to 4,431.57 points.

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Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate had depreciated 0.18 percent to IDR 12,113 per US dollar at 14:45 local Jakarta time on Monday (20/01). The most important factor that caused this negative performance was China's slowing economic growth in quarter IV-2013. In the fourth quarter of 2013, China's GDP grew 7.7 percent, down from 7.8 percent in the previous quarter. This slowing growth indicates that China's economic 'recovery' is still fragile (China is among the five most important trade partners of Indonesia).

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On Thursday's trading day (16/01), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell victim to profit taking after two days of sharp gains (although the index did not came close to its gap at 4,393-4,398 points). The index was also pulled down due to the World Bank's pessimistic forecast for growth of Indonesia's economy as well as today's mixed Asian stock indices. Lastly, the continued Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciation contributed to negative market sentiments.

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Despite our concern that Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) would be susceptible to profit taking after the national holiday on Tuesday (14/01) as the IHSG rose signficantly on Monday (13/01), it continued its rise on Wednesday (15/01). The IHSG was supported by positive Asian indices that were influenced by strong US and European stock markets after the release of positive economic data in the USA and Europe. The depreciating rupiah exchange rate, however, limited the IHSG's gain.

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On Wednesday (15/01), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.37 percent to IDR 12,095 per US dollar at 14:15 local Jakarta time. Global markets are again in anticipation of the Federal Reserve tapering issue after the Fed officials of Philadelphia and Dallas stated that they support an as-soon-as-possible winding down of the US stimulus program after the release of strong US retail data. The tapering will make it very hard for emerging currencies to gain against the US dollar. At 28-29 January, the Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the December 2013 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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Today, Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the Board of Governors’ meeting. The lending facility rate and deposit facility rate were maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. An assessment of the economy in 2013 and outlook for 2014-2015 indicated that such policy is consistent with ongoing efforts to keep inflation within the target of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to help reduce the current account deficit to a sustainable level.

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Indonesian retail sales surged 14 percent in November 2013 from one year earlier (the highest growth rate since July 2013). On a month-to-month basis, Indonesia's retail sales increased 1.5 percent from October 2013. These findings were the result of a survey conducted by the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), which surveyed 650 retailers in 10 Indonesian cities. The bank's survey also indicated that Indonesian retailers may increase prices of their products in 2014 in order to compensate for the depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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As expected, the Jakarta Composite Index (abbreviated IHSG) continued its downward trend amid falling global indices. From the start of Tuesday's trading day (07/01), the IHSG had to face pressures resulting in foreign net selling. Apart from the weakening rupiah exchange rate, negative market sentiments were caused by the Goldman Sachs Group and JP Morgan Chase & Co that both downgraded emerging market economies. This led to a correction on Asian stock markets.

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Domestic sales of motorcycles in Indonesia are expected to have fallen by 20 percent to 550,000 in December 2013 compared to the previous month (688,527). According to the Chairman of the commercial department of the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI), Sigit Kumala, this decline is not the result of slowing demand for motorcycles but due to the limited amount of working days amid the Christmas and New Year holidays. This then led to less production and distribution of motorcycles to Indonesian dealers.

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