Indonesia mengalami deflasi, dengan harga konsumen turun 0,05% (month-on-month), pada September 2015 karena menurunnya harga makanan dan transportasi. Contoh dari penurunan harga makanan termasuk harga daging ayam, telur, cabai, bawang dan minyak untuk memasak. Biaya transportasi yang lebih rendah terutama disebabkan karena menurunnya biaya transportasi udara yang berkontribusi kepada deflasi. Pada basis tahunan, inflasi Indonesia menurun 6,83% di bulan September, turun dari 7,18 pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya, dan di bawah perkiraan para analis pada 7,0 (y/y).

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Setelah Pemerintah Indonesia mengumumkan paket kebijakan ekonomi yang kedua pada hari Selasa (29/09), bank sentral (Bank Indonesia) mengikuti dengan mengeluarkan paket stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah pada hari Rabu (30/09). Paket Bank Indonesia ini memiliki tiga pilar utama: (1) mengamankan stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah, (2) memperkuat manajemen likuiditas rupiah, dan (3) memperkuat manajemen penawaran dan permintaan mata uang asing.

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Kebanyakan indeks saham Asia menguat pada hari Rabu, dipimpin oleh Indeks Nikkei 225 di Jepang yang naik 2,70% karena prediksi akan adanya tindakan-tindakan stimulus dari Pemerintah. Sementara itu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 1,09% menjadi 4.223,91 poin karena didukung oleh indeks-indeks saham yang naik di wilayah ini. Sementara itu, rupiah menguat 0,26% menjadi Rp 14.653 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Saham-saham Indonesia mengalami sebuah perjalanan ‘roller coaster’ pada hari Selasa (29/09). Setelah waktu pembukaan, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) jatuh lebih dari 2% mendekati level terendah selama tiga tahun terakhir. Kendati begitu, indeks ini berhasil ditutup pada 4.178,41 poin dalam perdagangan hari ini, naik 1,41%. Sementara itu, rupiah berhasil memotong kerugiannya. Berdasarkan Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah melewati batas Rp 14.800 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) beberapa kali namun pada akhir hari hanya melemah 0,11% menjadi Rp 14.691 per dollar AS.

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Dalam rangka mendukung rupiah yang sedang lemah, Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) Pertamina akan memotong pembelian langsung foreign exchange (forex) di pasar sebanyak sekitar 50%. Pertamina bersama dengan BUMN Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) berkontribusi sekitar setengah dari transaksi sehari forex karena perusahaan-perusahaan ini membutuhkan dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk pembelian bahan bakar dan pembayaran hutang luar negeri.

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Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun lebih dari 2%, menyentuh level terendah selama tiga tahun terakhir, sementara rupiah melemah melewati batas level Rp 14.800 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index) pada pukul 09:00 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB) pada hari Selasa (29/09) karena penjualan saham besar-besaran terus berlanjut. Para investor kuatir mengenai kondisi ekonomi di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) dan dunia serta rendahnya harga-harga komoditi, sambil mengantisipasi kenaikan Fed Fund Rate.

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Indeks-indeks saham di Asia menunjukkan hasil yang bercampur antara baik dan buruk di hari perdagangan pertama minggu ini. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) jatuh 2,11% menjadi 4.120,50 poin (terendah dalam dua tahun terakhir), sementara rupiah (secara tidak terduga) menguat 0,13% menjadi Rp 14.674 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index. Sementara itu, pasar-pasar Eropa turun setelah dibuka pada hari Senin (28/09). Apa yang mempengaruhi pasar hari ini?

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Indonesia berencana untuk memotong pajak yang dikenakan pada para eksportir lokal dalam rangka mendongkrak jumlah cadangan devisa, sambil mendukung rupiah, sebagai bagian dari paket kebijakan yang kedua. Rupiah Indonesia telah melemah 18,1% sejak awal 2015 karena ancaman kenaikan suku bunga AS, rendahnya harga-harga komoditi, dan devaluasi yuan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT). Pemerintah kini berencana untuk memotong pajak penghasilan atas bunga yang didapat para eksportir karena menabung pendapatan usaha ekspor mereka di bank-bank lokal. Saat ini, pajak penghasilan terhadap bunga bank (dari rekening-rekening tabungan) mencapai 20%.

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Setelah dibuka pada hari Senin (28/09), saham Indonesia jatuh dengan cepat di tengah pasar-pasar Asia yang performanya mixed. Faktor utama yang menyebabkan beberapa pasar Asia jatuh adalah menurunnya keuntungan industri di Cina (memicu kekuatiran mengenai semakin melambatnya negara dengan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia). Keuntungan industri Cina jatuh 8,8% di bulan Agustus, memburuk dari penurunan 2,9% di bulan Juli. Pada pukul 09:50 WIB, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,41% menjadi 4.150,27 poin.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is set to announce the second installment of a policy package that aims at raising onshore US dollar supplies (and liquidity). As the rupiah has been the second worst-performing Asian emerging market currency (after Malaysia’s ringgit), having depreciated 18.1 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015, Indonesian policymakers are anxious to prop up the ailing currency in order to safeguard the country’s financial stability. Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) stood at IDR 14,690 per US dollar on Friday (25/09), a 17-year low.

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On Friday (03/01), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) ended 1.61 percent down to 4,257.66 points amid a majority of global indices declining after having experienced a short (window dressing-inspired) rally at the end of the year. The IHSG, which was not affected by the window dressing phenomenon, was dragged down after experiencing a four-day rally in the last week of 2013. Positive US employment data were unable to support global indices.

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Garuda Indonesia, the country's top-class airline, is planning to conduct a rights issue in the first quarter of 2014. Through this corporate action, which has already been approved by the shareholders, the state-controlled company aims to raise IDR 2 trillion (USD $162.6 million). For 2014, the airline plans to allocate IDR 4 trillion in capital expenditure (capex) for business expansion. About half of this amount should originate from funds generated through the rights issue.

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As we approach the end of 2013 it is worth taking a look back to the performance of the stock market of Indonesia this year. At the start of the year, investors and analysts were positive that the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) would post steady growth. Initial forecasts claimed that the IHSG could surpass the 5,000 points level by the end of 2013 from 4,300 at end-2012. The actual performance of the IHSG in fact exceeded expectations as in May 2013 the index moved beyond 5,200 points.

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On Wednesday (18/12), the Federal Reserve announced to slightly scale back its quantitative easing program starting from January 2014. The reduction of the bond-buying program involves USD $5 billion of mortgage-backed securities and USD $5 billion of US treasury securities. Thus, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of USD $75 billion worth of bonds per month instead of the current pace of USD $85 billion. For the moment, this policy change has an euphoric effect on global stock markets.

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The announcement that the Federal Reserve (FED) will start its quantitative easing tapering in January 2014, while keeping interest rates low, made stock indices in Asia rise, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG), although mining and property stocks were able to limit today's gain. The IHSG rose 0.85 percent to 4,231.98 points on Thursday (19/12). The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate (IDR), however, was down as future tighter US dollar supplies causes market participants to buy US dollar now.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its downward trend on Wednesday (18/12). Both Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) and Bloomberg Dollar Index indicated a depreciating rupiah against the US dollar. Bank Indonesia's JISDOR was set at IDR 12,151 per US dollar, a 0.39 percent fall from yesterday (17/12), while in the Bloomberg Dollar Index the currency depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,168 per US dollar at 16:55 in the afternoon, local Jakarta time.

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Wall Street, which was up on Monday (16/12) supported by various economic data, managed to support Asian stock indices on Tuesday (17/12), including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (IHSG). Investors were back and ready to trade on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. As usual, the big cap stocks were highly popular. The rupiah’s Bank Indonesia mid-rate, which improved slightly, also contributed to the good performance of the IHSG today. The index rose 1.37 percent to 4,182.35 points.

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Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 17-18 December 2013, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate is continuing its depreciating trend as the economies of the USA and Japan, particularly the capital markets, are improving and causes the US dollar and Yen to appreciate against other currencies. Both currencies are considered safe havens amid the current volatile world economy. One of the victims is the rupiah, which fell to IDR 12,126 per US dollar at 12.30 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.

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In Bank Indonesia's board of governors' meeting, which was held on Thursday (12/12), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. This decision was in line with market expectation but was unable to support the Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate. The lending facility and deposit facility interest rates were also maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. Bank Indonesia decided not to change the rate as Indonesia's inflation outlook for 2014 is still within target.

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