Kebanyakan indeks saham Asia menguat pada hari Rabu, dipimpin oleh Indeks Nikkei 225 di Jepang yang naik 2,70% karena prediksi akan adanya tindakan-tindakan stimulus dari Pemerintah. Sementara itu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 1,09% menjadi 4.223,91 poin karena didukung oleh indeks-indeks saham yang naik di wilayah ini. Sementara itu, rupiah menguat 0,26% menjadi Rp 14.653 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Saham-saham Indonesia mengalami sebuah perjalanan ‘roller coaster’ pada hari Selasa (29/09). Setelah waktu pembukaan, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) jatuh lebih dari 2% mendekati level terendah selama tiga tahun terakhir. Kendati begitu, indeks ini berhasil ditutup pada 4.178,41 poin dalam perdagangan hari ini, naik 1,41%. Sementara itu, rupiah berhasil memotong kerugiannya. Berdasarkan Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah melewati batas Rp 14.800 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) beberapa kali namun pada akhir hari hanya melemah 0,11% menjadi Rp 14.691 per dollar AS.

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Dalam rangka mendukung rupiah yang sedang lemah, Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) Pertamina akan memotong pembelian langsung foreign exchange (forex) di pasar sebanyak sekitar 50%. Pertamina bersama dengan BUMN Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) berkontribusi sekitar setengah dari transaksi sehari forex karena perusahaan-perusahaan ini membutuhkan dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk pembelian bahan bakar dan pembayaran hutang luar negeri.

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Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun lebih dari 2%, menyentuh level terendah selama tiga tahun terakhir, sementara rupiah melemah melewati batas level Rp 14.800 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index) pada pukul 09:00 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB) pada hari Selasa (29/09) karena penjualan saham besar-besaran terus berlanjut. Para investor kuatir mengenai kondisi ekonomi di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) dan dunia serta rendahnya harga-harga komoditi, sambil mengantisipasi kenaikan Fed Fund Rate.

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Indeks-indeks saham di Asia menunjukkan hasil yang bercampur antara baik dan buruk di hari perdagangan pertama minggu ini. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) jatuh 2,11% menjadi 4.120,50 poin (terendah dalam dua tahun terakhir), sementara rupiah (secara tidak terduga) menguat 0,13% menjadi Rp 14.674 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index. Sementara itu, pasar-pasar Eropa turun setelah dibuka pada hari Senin (28/09). Apa yang mempengaruhi pasar hari ini?

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Indonesia berencana untuk memotong pajak yang dikenakan pada para eksportir lokal dalam rangka mendongkrak jumlah cadangan devisa, sambil mendukung rupiah, sebagai bagian dari paket kebijakan yang kedua. Rupiah Indonesia telah melemah 18,1% sejak awal 2015 karena ancaman kenaikan suku bunga AS, rendahnya harga-harga komoditi, dan devaluasi yuan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT). Pemerintah kini berencana untuk memotong pajak penghasilan atas bunga yang didapat para eksportir karena menabung pendapatan usaha ekspor mereka di bank-bank lokal. Saat ini, pajak penghasilan terhadap bunga bank (dari rekening-rekening tabungan) mencapai 20%.

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Setelah dibuka pada hari Senin (28/09), saham Indonesia jatuh dengan cepat di tengah pasar-pasar Asia yang performanya mixed. Faktor utama yang menyebabkan beberapa pasar Asia jatuh adalah menurunnya keuntungan industri di Cina (memicu kekuatiran mengenai semakin melambatnya negara dengan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia). Keuntungan industri Cina jatuh 8,8% di bulan Agustus, memburuk dari penurunan 2,9% di bulan Juli. Pada pukul 09:50 WIB, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,41% menjadi 4.150,27 poin.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is set to announce the second installment of a policy package that aims at raising onshore US dollar supplies (and liquidity). As the rupiah has been the second worst-performing Asian emerging market currency (after Malaysia’s ringgit), having depreciated 18.1 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015, Indonesian policymakers are anxious to prop up the ailing currency in order to safeguard the country’s financial stability. Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) stood at IDR 14,690 per US dollar on Friday (25/09), a 17-year low.

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Stock markets in Asia were mixed on Friday (25/09) after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a speech at the University of Massachusetts that the US central bank is still on track to raise interest rates before the year-end (provided no economic shocks take place as the move is data-dependent). After this looming hike, Yellen suggests to gradually tighten US monetary policy thereafter.

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In line with other Asian emerging markets and currencies, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are weakening on Friday (25/09) after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said during her speech at the University of Massachusetts that US interest rates are likely to be raised before the year-end, provided no economic shocks occur. Yellen stated that most FOMC participants agree on a Fed Fund Rate hike later this year, followed by gradual further monetary tightening thereafter.

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Falling stock indices on Wall Street on Wednesday (04/12) impacted on Asia the following day resulting in the majority of Asian indices being down on Thursday's trading day (05/12), including the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (IHSG). Besides the impact of Wall Street, Asian stock markets are also vulnerable to ongoing concern about the future of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. In the case of Indonesia, negative market sentiments are intensified by the continued depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate.

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In the morning of Thursday (05/12), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated beyond the psychological level of IDR 12,000 per US dollar. In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah fell 0.2 percent to IDR 12,011 as of 09:19:49. The main factor behind this decline is market participants' concerns about the end of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. It is increasingly speculated that the winding down of this program will start sooner than expected.

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The continued presence of negative market sentiments made it impossible for Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) to rebound. The looming end of the FED's quantitative easing program - which may be wound down sooner than expected - is a big cause for concern. The depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate intensifies these concerns, particularly regarding companies that have exposure to volatile US dollar movements. Furthermore, investors are waiting for further US economic data as well as for Bank Indonesia's next meeting.

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Apparently positive market sentiments brought on by the macroeconomic data released on Monday (02/12) did not last long. Yesterday, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was lifted by the October 2013 trade surplus and limited November inflation. However, investors are now back to reality and prefer to wait for results of Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's meeting (12/12) and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (17-18/12). The former will inform about Indonesia's interest rate, the latter about the future of quantitative easing.

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The inflation rate of Indonesia rose slightly in November 2013 (month-to-month) and confirms estimations that inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy is under control after having accelerated sharply due to the introduction of higher subsidized fuel prices June 2013. In recent months, inflation moved sideways and is expected to ease considerably in the first quarter of 2014. Indonesia's consumer price index rose 0.12 percent in November due to rising electricity, processed foods and health care costs.

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Although widespread concerns about Indonesia's prolonged trade deficit (and current account deficit) are far from unfounded, the country's October 2013 trade data show a positive result. On Monday (02/12), Statistics Indonesia announced that Southeast Asia's largest economy posted a small trade surplus of USD $42.4 million in October after having recorded a trade deficit of USD $810 million in the previous month. This calender year (January to October 2013), the trade deficit has accumulated to USD $6.36 billion.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite index or IHSG) was able to continue its rise on Monday (02/12), supported by economic data released by Statistics Indonesia. Although Indonesia's November inflation rate (0.12 percent) was slightly higher than previously expected, investors were content with the result. Moreover, Indonesia's October trade balance showed a (limited) surplus of USD $42.2 million, constituting a sharp improvement from the large deficit in the previous month.

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After five consecutive days of depreciation, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate finally managed to strengthen against the US dollar. Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate rose 0.26 percent to IDR 11,946 per US dollar on Monday (02/12). According to Bloomberg data, the rupiah rose 1.85 percent to IDR 11,744 as of 02:25:50 ET as market participants have reacted positively to Indonesian trade and inflation data that were released today: October showed a trade surplus, while in November inflation was kept at 0.12 percent.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index which is also known as the IHSG) gained 0.53 percent on Friday (29/11) and ended on 4,256.43 points. Today's trading day was relatively quiet with a transaction value of only IDR 3.30 trillion (USD $276.50 million). Foreign net buying of Indonesian shares supported the IHSG index to end this month's last trading day on a positive note. Sectors that performed well were agriculture (+2.18 percent), construction (+1.27 percent), and mining (+0.99 percent).

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On Friday (29/11), the last trading day of November 2013, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its downward spiral. The Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate¹ fell 0.39 percent to IDR 11,970 per US dollar amid concern about the winding down of the quantitative easing program, Indonesia's wide current account deficit, a disappointing US dollar-denominated bond auction and surging US dollar demand for earnings repatriation as well as foreign debt payment. Considering the full month of November, the rupiah depreciated 6.61 percent.

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