Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Indonesia mengharapkan pengiriman batubara ke India meningkat pada tahun 2016, sementara ekspor batubara ke Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) diperkirakan akan menurun lebih lanjut karena ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ini sedang mengalami perlambatan (dan RRT membatasi impor batubara dengan tingkat kalori yang lebih rendah). Adhi Wibowo, Direktur Batu Bara Kementerian ESDM, mengatakan - berlawanan dengan RRT - permintaan batubara dari India tidak turun. Selain itu, India sangat tergantung pada Indonesia untuk batubara termal.

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Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA), harga referensi batubara termal yang ditetapkan oleh Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, melemah 1,69% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 53,51 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) pada bulan Desember 2015, menyentuh level terendah baru dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai diberlakukan pada Januari 2009. Supriatna Suhala, Direktur Eksekutif Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia (APBI), mengatakan harga batubara rendah disebabkan oleh banjir pasokan global dikombinasikan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lesu.

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Meskipun musim dingin telah tiba, harga minyak dunia masih menurun. Hari ini (21/12), harga minyak mentah Brent jatuh ke level terendah sejak 2004 karena kekuatiran yang berkelanjutan tentang berlimpahnya suplai global karena Energy Information Administration melaporkan bahwa suplai minyak mentah AS naik 4,8 juta barel menjadi 490,7 juta pada minggu kedua bulan Desember, sementara tingkat produksi OPEC mencapai 31,7 juta barel per hari (bph) pada bulan November 2015. Sementara itu, permintaan minyak diperkirakan akan turun di tahun 2016. Sebagai contoh, konsumsi minyak di AS diperkirakan akan turun menjadi 1,2 juta bph tahun depan, dari 1,8 bph pada tahun 2015.

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Indonesia kemungkinan besar akan membatalkan rencananya untuk mengembangkan empat pabrik nuklir (dengan kapasitas gabungan 6 GW) pada tahun 2025. Sudirman Said, Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Indonesia, baru-baru ini mengatakan ada banyak alternatif - khususnya energi terbarukan - di Indonesia untuk memenuhi target pemerintah meningkatkan kapasitas daya sebesar 136,7 GW pada tahun 2025 dan 430 GW pada tahun 2050. Tenaga nuklir kontroversial karena risiko kesehatan, kerusakan lingkungan dan proliferasi nuklir (bila digunakan sebagai senjata). Bencana nuklir di Jepang pada tahun 2011 menyoroti risiko menggunakan tenaga nuklir.

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The coal price will have serious difficulty to rise as long as crude oil prices remain low and China's economy remains in slowdown-mode. Weak global oil prices (expected to remain below USD $40 per barrel this month) - and the strong US dollar amid looming US monetary tightening - give a bad signal to other commodities, including coal, while the world's largest energy consumer China is struggling to combat its economic slowdown implying limited global coal demand.

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Indonesia akan gagal untuk mencapai target produksi batubaranya yaitu 425 juta ton di tahun 2015 karena para penambang batubara di negara ini telah memotong produksinya kira-kira 20%. Perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batubara domestik memotong hasil produksi batubara karena harga batubara yang terus-menerus rendah yang menyebabkan arus kas negatif bagi banyak penambang. Harga batubara global telah menurun karena kelebihan suplai dan permintaan global yang melemah akibat lambannya pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Ekspor batubara Indonesia diprediksi akan jatuh menjadi di bawah 300 juta ton di 2016 karena para penambang domestik memotong volume produksi batubara karena rendahnya harga batubara. Harga referensi batubara termal pada bulan Oktober di Indonesia (ditetapkan oleh Pemerintah) jatuh 1,4% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 57,39 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) dan kini ada pada level terendah dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai ditetapkan pada Januari 2009. Sementara itu, harga batubara acuan global nyaris menyentuh level terendah dalam sembilan tahun terakhir.

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Indonesia’s October benchmark thermal coal reference price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) was set at USD $57.39 per metric ton (FOB) by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, down 1.4 percent (m/m) from the preceding month and down 14.7 percent (y/y) from the same month last year. The October coal price is now at an all-time record low since the start of the government’s reference price in January 2009.

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Harum Energy, one of Indonesia’s leading coal mining companies, aims to take advantage of the current weak state of the mining sector by acquiring other coal companies. President Director Ray Antonio Gunara said that Harum Energy, which is part of the Tanito Harum Group, set aside USD $390 million (USD $190 million from internal cash reserves and USD $200 million through a loan) to purchase other coal miners.

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Indonesia's November 2016 coal price broke a record. The nation's benchmark thermal coal price (locally known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - jumped 22.9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton this month, the highest monthly HBA price rise ever recorded. Compared to the start of the year, Indonesia's coal price has now risen 59.6 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain. But is this reason for euphoria?

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Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will soon issue a moratorium on new coal mining concessions. This moratorium will be implemented after the issuance of a planned presidential instruction regarding a five-year moratorium on new palm oil plantation concessions. Heriyanto, Head of the Legal Department Directorate General of Minerals and Coal at the Energy Ministry, emphasized that the moratorium in Indonesia's mining industry only involves coal, not the mining of minerals.

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Domestic coal consumption in Indonesia rose 34.5 percent (y/y) to 24.5 million tons in the January-April 2016 period, according to data from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. This growth is caused by higher domestic coal demand due to Indonesia's ambitious 35,000 MW program (many of the power plants constructed in this program are coal-fired). Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal exports were down 14 percent (y/y) to 68 million metric tons over the same period amid sluggish global demand.

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Last week it was announced that the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) agreed to a USD $3.4 billion loan for the construction of the controversial Batang power plant in Central Java. This power plant project is controversial as it met fierce resistance from the local community (triggering concerns about human rights violations related to the land acquisition process) as well as criticism from environmental groups, saying this power plant - set to become Indonesia's largest coal-fired power plant - runs counter to Indonesia's earlier commitment to reduce carbon emissions.

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Adaro Energy, one of Indonesia's leading coal mining companies, is still plagued by the globe's weak coal prices. However, the company's estimated lower cash and operational costs give a positive boost to the miner's corporate earnings this year. According to Danareksa Sekuritas' estimates the cost of mining for Adaro Energy (outside royalty payments) will range between USD $26 - $28 per ton in 2016, slightly down from USD $28 per ton last year. Meanwhile, the miner's stripping ratio is expected to decline to 4.7x in 2016 (from 5.2x last year).

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One of the leading diversified conglomerates in Indonesia, Astra International, is facing challenges. Demand for cars has been on the decline in Indonesia over the past two years. This is a big challenge for the company because the automotive sector accounts for about half of Astra's total earnings. Meanwhile, its heavy equipment & mining segment and the financial services segment have been under severe pressure. Net income in the heavy equipment & mining segment plunged 55 percent (y/y) in Q1-2016, while net income in the financial services segment tumbled 46 percent (y/y) over the same period.

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State-controlled coal mining company Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam may be the only Indonesian coal producer that will post higher sales in 2016, both in terms of volume and revenue. The nation's other coal miners are expected to see further dropping coal sales due to sluggish global demand although coal prices may stabilize this year. According to Trimegah Securities Bukit Asam's coal sales volume will rise 25 percent (y/y) to 23.9 million tons in 2016, while revenue is estimated to rise 9 percent (y/y) to IDR 15 trillion (approx. USD $1.1 billion), and coal mining operational costs to fall by 3 percent (y/y) to USD $39.8 per ton.

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United Tractors, distributor alat-alat berat terbesar di Indonesia, masih menghadapi tantangan karena permintaan yang lemah secara terus-menerus akibat rendahnya harga komoditi. Kegiatan usaha di sektor agrobisnis, pertambangan dan infrastruktur telah melambat. Konteks ini diprediksi akan membawa kepada melambatnya laju pertumbuhan laba bersih bagi perusahaan ini baik di tahun 2015 maupun 2016. Perusahaan ini, anak perusahaan dari Astra International (konglomerat terdiversifikasi terbesar di Indonesia), menguasai kira-kira 40% pangsa pasar alat berat di Indonesia.

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Coal production in Indonesia fell 15.4 percent to 263 million tons in the first eight months of 2015 (from 311 million tons in the same period last year) as Indonesian coal miners cut production due to low global coal demand. Last week it was reported that Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s coal exports fell 18 percent to 211 million tons (y/y) in the January-August period.

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