The Indonesian rupiah is again flirting with the IDR 13,900 per US dollar level after the central bank announced on Monday (07/12) that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell further in November. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated by 0.19 percent to IDR 13,887 per US dollar at 15:30 pm local Jakarta time on Tuesday (08/12). Other factors that put pressure on the rupiah are the low oil price (giving rise to a strong US dollar), weak trade data from China, and the looming US interest rate hike.

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The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia fell slightly in November. According to the latest data from Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) the reserves stood at USD $100.24 billion at end-November, down from USD $100.7 billion at the end of the preceding month. The reserves fell on foreign exchange receipts, public foreign debt payments and the central bank's efforts to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday morning (30/11). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was down 0.84 percent to 4,522.09 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 13,830 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 11:15 am local Jakarta time. Negative sentiments still stem from China and the looming Fed Fund Rate hike in December, while there are few to none domestic sentiments that can support the nation's assets.

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Due to heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike in December, the US dollar was pushed to a seven-month high today. As a consequence, the rupiah depreciated 0.73 percent to IDR 13,722 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Moreover, the strong US dollar impacted negatively on commodity prices. Many commodity prices, including oil, copper and nickel plunged severely on today's trading day. For key commodity producers, which include Indonesia, falling commodity prices put pressure on assets.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi inflasi headline akan mencapai 2,79% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) dalam setahun penuh 2015, di bawah cakupan target bank sentral yaitu 3-5%. Inflasi di Indonesia pada tahun ini rendah, berakumulasi menjadi 2,16% di 10 bulan pertama tahun 2015, dan Bank Indonesia memperkirakan bahwa laju inflasi akan tetap terkontrol di dua bulan terakhir tahun 2015.

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Aset-aset Indonesia ditutup dengan kuat pada hari Jumat (20/11). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah sama-sama menguat secara signifikan karena meningkatnya kejelasan mengenai kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS), sementara Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) mengumumkan bahwa Pemerintah RRT akan mengimplementasikan lebih banyak usaha untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, karenanya menguatkan nilai tukar yuan (mendukung penguatan nilai mata uang di negara-negara berkembang di Asia). IHSG naik 0,94% menjadi 4.561,33 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 1,10% menjadi Rp 13.623 per dollar AS (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Stock indices in Asia were mixed on Wednesday (18/11), while most emerging market currencies depreciated against the US dollar. The Indonesian rupiah was under pressure - touching a six week low - after the central bank (Bank Indonesia) cut the primary minimum statutory reserves from 8.00 percent to 7.50 percent (effective per 1 December 2015), hence providing local financial institutions approximately USD $1.8 billion more in liquidity. However, it may not be enough to trigger an increase in lending as banks are more focused on lending quality than quantity.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo announced during a press conference that the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent during the Board of Governor's Meeting on 17 November 2015. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia maintained the deposit facility rate and the lending facility rate at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. The current interest rate environment is considered sufficient to face persistent global uncertainties caused by the looming Fed Fund Rate hike and sluggish economic growth in the Eurozone and China.

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Di seluruh dunia, indeks-indeks saham jatuh karena kekuatiran berkepanjangan mengenai rendahnya harga komoditi (terutama karena harga minyak mentah menurun ke level terendah selama 2 bulan terakhir dan mungkin mulai kembali mendekati level 40 dollar AS), kekuatiran mengenai perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), sementara pasar juga bersiap-siap untuk kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember (sebuah tindakan yang akan memicu capital outflows dari aset-aset negara berkembang yang lebih berisiko). Bulan ini pasar berada di bawah tekanan jual yang besar setelah mengalami reli di bulan Oktober.

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Saham-saham Asia menghadapi tekanan pada hari Jumat (13/11) karena rendahnya harga minyak dan meningkatnya perkiraan bahwa Federal Reserve akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin di bulan Desember. Saham-saham sumberdaya alam menarik turun indeks-indeks saham di Australia, Hong Kong dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) lebih dari 1%. Kendati begitu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), melawan tren di Asia, telah naik 0,51% menjadi 4.485,12 poin pada pukul 10:20 WIB kendati indeks-indeks Asia yang ada di zona merah. Sementara itu, dollar AS menguat terhadap mata uang Asia namun tidak setajam perkiraan sebelumnya.

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An alarming report was released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 1 October 2019. In the report the WTO notes that ongoing global trade tensions, led by tariff troubles between the United States and China, are doing harm to global economic growth in ways not seen since the financial crisis one decade ago.

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The global environment has not improved in August 2019. In fact, it has deteriorated as reflected by declining stock indices in most parts of the world as well as a record-setting trend for the price of gold (known for being one of the world’s crucial safe haven assets).

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As stock markets continue to trade near precarious highs and an underlying current of geopolitical uncertainty continues to limit the outlook for equities in 2019, it is not entirely surprising to see going prices rallying. Indeed, this has been our price forecast for several weeks. But the confirmation of these forecasts came as the result of new evidence indicating weakness in US labor markets and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to reduce interest rates more than previously anticipated. 

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The Indonesian rupiah rate weakened against the US dollar in March 2019. Bank Indonesia’s benchmark JISDOR rate finished the third month of the year at a position of IDR 14,244 per US dollar, down 1.29 percent compared to the level of IDR 14,062 per US dollar that was set at the last trading day of February 2019. Nevertheless, compared to the start of the year, the rupiah has remained in positive territory, having appreciated 1.64 percent against the US greenback in the first quarter of 2019.

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At the annual “Fitch Ratings Indonesia Credit Briefing”, which was organized on 20 March 2019 in the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Jakarta, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was invited to present her keynote speech. This year's theme of Fitch Ratings’ annual event in Jakarta was "The Election, Macro-Economy and Credit Market", and therefore Sri Mulyani’s speech focused on two topics: (1) the elections and (2) the economy.

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In line with expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 6.00 percent at the February policy meeting that was held on 20-21 February 2019. Also the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 5.25 percent and 6.75 percent, respectively.

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The Indonesian rupiah appreciated markedly in January 2019, and reached its strongest level since the end of June last year. The benchmark JISDOR rate of Bank Indonesia ended the first month of 2019 at IDR 14,072 per US dollar, strengthening from the level of IDR 14,481 per US dollar at the last trading day of 2018. Or, in other words, the rupiah managed to appreciate 2.82 percent against the greenback in the first month of 2019.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.24 percent to 6,229.63 points on Tuesday (24/04). The performance of Indonesian stocks were in line with the general trend in Southeast Asia. Due to rising US treasury yields (touching nearly 3 percent, its highest level since January 2014) investors withdraw their funds from riskier assets in emerging markets. Concerns over US inflation and the fiscal deficit are behind the rising US treasury yield.

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On Monday (06/11) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia's third quarter GDP data, important information that is closely followed by investors and analysts. While most analysts expect to see accelerated economic growth in the third quarter, others remain skeptical as Indonesia's gross domestic product was disappointing in the first two quarters of the year amid bleak domestic consumption.

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After touching a new all-time record high level last week, analysts are optimistic that Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index will surpass the psychological level of 6,000.00 points later this year. Last Friday (25/08) the benchmark index of Indonesia reached 5,915.36 points, a new record, while market capitalization touched IDR 6,481.8 trillion (approx. USD $483.9 billion).

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