Sejalan dengan perkiraan dan tren sejarah, penjualan mobil di Indonesia naik - dalam basis bulanan - di Juni 2015 menjelang perayaan Idul Fitri (yang menandai akhir bulan puasa umat Muslim). Penjualan mobil di Indonesia biasanya naik menjelang Idul Fitri, sebuah tradisi yang melibatkan perpindahan sementara jutaan orang Indonesia dari kota-kota ke daerah asal mereka. Sebelum perjalanan ke tempat asal, sebagian dari para pemudik ini membeli mobil baru, keputusan yang sering dipengaruhi oleh kampanye promosi dan program diskon.

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Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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Survei terakhir Bank Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa keyakinan konsumen di Indonesia jatuh pada bulan Juni karena kekuatiran mengenai menurunnya ketersediaan lapangan pekerjaan serta penurunan pendapatan dan aktivitas bisnis. Bulan Juni, Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen bank sentral jatuh 1,5 poin menjadi 111,3. Sejauh ini di tahun ini, keyakinan konsumen Indonesia hanya naik di bulan Mei. Di bulan lainnya, indeks ini jatuh. Indeks ini dibuat berdasarkan pada sampel di 4.600 rumah tangga di 18 kota besar di Indonesia (skor 100 membatasi optimisme dari pesimisme).

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Aktivitas manufaktur Indonesia terus berkontraksi. Pada bulan Juni, untuk bulan ke-9 secara berturut-turut sektor manufaktur Indonesia berkontraksi. Purchasing manager index (PMI) dari Nikkei/Markit sedikit naik menjadi 47,8 di bulan Juni 2015 dari 47,1 di bulan Mei, mengimplikasikan bahwa sektor ini berkontraksi dalam kecepatan lebih lambat tapi tetap di bawah level 50 yang membedakan kontraksi dari ekspansi. Kontraksi berlanjut karena penurunan secara terus menerus dalam pemesanan baru dan produksi.

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Inflasi Indonesia berakselerasi menjadi 7,26% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Juni 2015 karena harga bahan pangan yang lebih tinggi yang dipicu oleh awal bulan Ramadan (bulan puasa yang suci bagi umat Islam). Perayaan musiman Ramadan dan dilanjutkan oleh Idul Fitri selalu menyebabkan tekanan inflasi di Indonesia karena konsumen meningkatkan belanja mereka. Meskipun daya beli masyarakat Indonesia telah menurun di beberapa bulan terakhir, direfleksikan dengan melambatnya penjualan mobil dan sepeda motor, barang-barang konsumen yang lebih murah seperti makanan, pakaian, sepatu dan tas saat ini sedang banyak terjual.

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Eric Sugandi, Chief Economist dari Standard Chartered Bank, memprediksi bahwa rupiah akan melemah menjadi Rp 13.900 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada akhir tahun ini dari Rp 13.339 pada hari ini (29/06) karena dampak dari momentum bullish dollar AS menjelang pengetatan moneter di AS dan ancaman keluarnya Yunani dari zona euro. Sebenarnya, ini adalah prognosa konservatif. Apabila bank sentral Indonesia tidak meningkatkan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate), sekarang pada 7,50%, tekanan terhadap rupiah mungkin akan meningkat nyata secara lebih lanjut.

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Sejalan dengan prediksi pasar, bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) tidak mengubah suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) yang tetap pada 7,50% di hari Kamis (18/06). Bank Indonesia tetap berkomitmen pada posisi moneternya yang relatif ketat dalam usaha melawa percepatan inflasi, membatasi defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia yang lebar, dan mendukung rupiah yang sedang melemah. Bank sentral juga menetapkan tingkat fasilitas simpanan bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) diprediksi tidak akan mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang akan dilaksanakan hari Kamis. Pada saat ini suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI rate) berada pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00%. Bank sentral tampaknya berkomitmen pada tingkat suku bunga yang relatif tinggi ini karena inflasi Indonesia telah naik menjadi 7,15% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan Mei, sementara rupiah menyentuh level terendah selama 17 tahun terakhir pada 9 Juni 2015.

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Beberapa institusi internasional merevisi turun proyeksi mereka untuk pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2015 karena investor asing telah kecewa dengan performa pemerintah Indonesia yang baru, sementara gambaran perekonomian global tetap jauh dari membaik. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse dan Nomura Holdings semuanya memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia tahun ini menjadi di bawah batasan 5% (year-on-year). Tahun lalu pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia menyentuh titik terendah selama lima tahun terakhir yaitu 5,02% di basis year-on-year (y/y).

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Car sales in Indonesia have declined 17 percent to 443,328 units in the first five months of 2015 according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers Association (Gaikindo), hence providing further confirmation that consumer demand has continued to fall amid the country’s slowing economic growth, depreciating rupiah and accelerating inflation. Car sales are one of the key indicators to measure people’s purchasing power as well as the general state of the economy.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (seven-day reverse repo rate) at 4.75 percent at the April policy meeting (19-20 April 2017), while its deposit facility rate and lending facility rate stayed at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers the current interest rate environment appropriate to face global uncertainties as well as rising inflationary pressures at home.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said it carefully monitors the impact of higher electricity tariffs on the nation's inflation pace in March 2017. This month the government implemented the second phase of its gradual electricity tariff increase program for 900-VA household customers. Indonesia's state-owned electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) decided to raise the electricity price for 900-VA households three times this year in order to cut energy subsidies and ensure that these subsidies are indeed channeled to the right people.

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The Bank of Indonesia recently resorted to a sudden cut in interest rate (by 25 bps to 4.75 percent) at its 20th October 2016 meeting. This followed a 25 bps reduction in September and thus this is the sixth time this year that the Indonesian central bank has elected to loosen monetary policy.

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An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Luis E. Breuer, visited Indonesia between 7 and 18 November 2016 to conduct the annual Article IV Consultation. The IMF team exchanged views with Indonesian government officials, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), and other public agencies, as well as representatives of the private sector, academics, and students on recent economic and financial market developments and the near-to-medium-term economic outlook.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2016. Bank Indonesia revised down its growth projection to below the 5 percent (y/y) mark for Q3-2016 (from an earlier forecast of 5.2 percent). However, the lender of last resort still expects to see a better performance compared to the 4.73 percent (y/y) pace posted in Q3-2015. Meanwhile, low inflation and a strong rupiah could result in another interest rate cut in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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On September 22, 2016, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its BI seven-day repo rate from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent, and this has changed parts of the long-term outlook for investors. Bank Indonesia also reduced its lending rate to 5.75 percent (from previous 5.50 percent), and the deposit rate to 4.50 percent (from previous 4.75 percent previously). This is significant because it shows that lending rates and interest rates have dropped to multi-year lows with the current policy changes.

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In line with expectations, Indonesia's inflation rate eased to 2.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in August 2016, from 3.21 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Consumer price inflation in Indonesia fell on the back of declining prices after the Islamic celebrations of Ramadan and Idul Fitri ended in July. On a monthly basis, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (m/m) in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector of Indonesia turned positive again.

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Gold investment levels in Asia continue to hold close to their all-time highs, and many regional investors are asking questions about what is next for the bullish trend in precious metals. To answer this question, it is important to take another look at old-fashioned economics as a means for determining how price valuations are likely to unfold in the future. One of the most critical economic forces in these areas is the force of market inflation, and its influence on the yellow metal can be significant depending on the underlying fundamentals present in the global economy.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's inflation to reach slightly below 1 percent month-to-month (m/m) in July 2016. According to central bank surveys, Indonesia's inflation accelerated in the first and second week of July by 1.18 percent (m/m) and 1.25 percent (m/m), respectively. Juda Agung, Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Economic and Monetary Policy Department, said inflation tends to peak ahead of - and during - the Idul Fitri holiday (4-8 July) but is set to ease in the third and fourth week.

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Next week Indonesia's financial and stock markets are closed for Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran or Eid al-Fitr), the celebrations that mark the end of the holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan). As usual, during the Ramadan month (that started in early June) business activities in Indonesia start to slow and this slowdown will reach its "peak" during the Idul Fitri holiday, a national holiday (from Monday 4 July to Friday 8 July) when some 17.6 million Indonesians who live and work in the bigger cities will return to their places of origin for a couple of days (a tradition called mudik).

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