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Berita Hari Ini Trade Balance
In July 2024, Indonesia saw its narrowest trade surplus since May 2023 as imports rebounded quite impressively. Fortunately, Indonesian exports also performed well in July 2024. If not, it would have meant an end to Indonesia’s trade surplus streak that has been ongoing for 51 successive months.
Although the trade performance of Indonesia was not as good as one month earlier, it is positive that its exports and imports experienced an increase (in value) in June 2024 compared to the same month one year ago.
Before we discuss Indonesia’s May 2024 trade data, we first need to go back to the previous month as Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) made a significant revision to the country’s April 2024 import data.
Indonesia enjoyed another great USD $3.56 billion trade surplus in April 2024. But unfortunately the nation’s exports and imports both dropped on a month-on-month (m/m) basis. However, that was in line with our expectations as trade was disrupted by the end of the Ramadan month and the subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations (which meant a week-long holiday for Indonesia).
Indonesia collected a USD $2.01 billion trade surplus in January 2024, which is the smallest surplus in six months (July 2023) for Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Key reason is that Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports showed a relatively steep decline compared to non-oil and gas exports in the preceding month and in the same month one year earlier. So, Indonesia’s export performance remains under some pressure.
Although Indonesia enjoyed another comfortable trade surplus in November 2023, the surplus ranks among its weakest in 2023 as exports dipped, while imports were rather stable. The latest trade surplus, which is the country’s 43rd consecutive trade surplus, reached a value of USD $2.41 billion.
Indonesia posted a strong USD $3.12 billion trade surplus in August 2023. It is the 40th consecutive month of trade surpluses for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, an indication that global commodity prices (particularly coal and palm oil, which are the key non-oil and gas export items of Indonesia) remain at lucrative levels.
In July 2023 we saw a relatively modest trade surplus for Indonesia at USD $1.31 billion, down heavily from USD $3.45 billion in the previous month when it was the weak import performance that allowed Southeast Asia’s largest economy to enjoy a wide trade surplus.
Last month, we were bracing for the first (monthly) trade deficit of Indonesia since April 2020 amid declining exports (in line with normalizing global commodity prices and subdued global economic growth) and elevated imports. However, this trade deficit didn’t arrive.
On 15 May 2023 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS) released the latest trade data of Indonesia. As expected, we saw a heavy decline in Indonesia’s export and import performance in April 2023. But, because imports plunged heavier than exports, it also meant Indonesia could enjoy a comfortable USD $3.94 billion trade surplus.
Artikel Terbaru Trade Balance
The trade balance of Indonesia improved in 2014. Over the whole year of 2014 Indonesia posted a USD $1.88 billion trade deficit, significantly better than the USD $4.08 billion deficit it recorded a year earlier. Today (02/02), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia posted a USD $0.19 billion trade surplus in the last month of the year after having recorded a USD $0.42 billion trade deficit in the preceding month. The improved performance is mainly due to the country’s growing non-oil & gas surplus and narrowing oil & gas deficit.
Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.43 percent to 5,220.00 points on Monday (05/01) amid profit taking on a relatively quiet trading day on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.55 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index as concerns about Greece exiting the euro intensified and boosted US dollar demand. Moreover, market participants were still reacting to Indonesia’s latest trade and inflation data.
Indonesia’s inflation pace accelerated in December 2014, exceeding estimations of analysts and Indonesia’s central bank. December inflation, 2.46 percent (m/m) or 8.36 percent (y/y), accelerated due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices (introduced in November) and volatile food prices (fluctuating rice and chili prices at the year-end). Other factors that contributed to high inflation in 2014 were higher electricity tariffs for households and industries, the higher price of 12 kg LPG, and an airfare adjustment.
Indonesia’s inflation reached 2.46 percent month-to-month (m/m) in December 2014 due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented on 18 November 2014. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesia’s inflation was recorded at 8.36 percent, slightly lower than the result in 2013 (8.38 percent). Inflation has been high in 2013 and 2014 as the Indonesian government raised prices of subsidized fuels in both years in an attempt to relieve fiscal pressures brought about by costly oil imports.
After having recorded a trade deficit for several months, Indonesia finally posted a USD $20 million trade surplus in October 2014, according to data from the country’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released on Monday (01/12). Exports in October amounted to USD $15.35 billion, while imports were recorded at USD $15.33 billion. The improvement in Indonesia’s trade balance was mainly on the back of growth in the country’s non-oil & gas sector exports. This sector saw a surplus of USD $1.13 billion (up from USD $760 million in September).
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released a press statement on Wednesday evening (01/10) in which it set out its view on the country’s trade balance and inflation after the latest economic data had been released by Statistics Indonesia (abbreviated BPS) earlier on the day. Based on information of BPS, Indonesia’s September inflation was relatively low at 0.27 percent month-to-month (m/m), while the August trade balance swung back into a deficit at USD $318.1 million.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent for the tenth consecutive month as inflation is under control and well within the year-end target of the central bank (3.5-5.5 percent). The lending facility and deposit facility were kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively, at Thursday’s Board of Governor’s Meeting (11/09). The central bank also expects that the current interest rate environment is capable of curbing the country’s wide current account deficit.
Contrary to the positive performance of the benchmark stock index of Indonesia on Monday’s trading day (01/09) and despite positive domestic economic data released by Statistics Indonesia, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 11,716 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (01/09). The main reason for the currency’s depreciation is the strengthening US dollar as US economic data are improving and inflation is slowing in the Eurozone.
Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, commented on Indonesia’s troubled current account balance on Tuesday (12/08). Martowardojo said that he expects the balance to improve in 2014. Last year, the current account deficit of Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); a level which is generally regarded as unsustainable. This year, the deficit may ease to 3 percent of GDP. For investors the current account balance is an important matter. Why?
According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).
