The Indonesian rupiah is having one of its strongest days in recent history. By 13:00 pm local Jakarta time, the rupiah had appreciated 3.90 percent to IDR 13,346 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). After the release of the Federal Reserve's FOMC minutes on Thursday (08/10), emerging markets assets have strengthened robustly on speculation that the Fed will not raise US interest rates anytime soon. Rebounding commodity prices also support the performance of the rupiah. Indonesia's currency is set to post its best weekly gain in more than a decade.

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After the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's 16-17 September policy meeting (FOMC), Indonesian assets (rupiah and stocks) strengthened significantly on Friday (09/10). The minutes, released on Thursday (08/10), show that the US central bank prefers to postpone a US interest rate hike for now in order to wait for additional information that informs whether the US economic growth outlook will not deteriorate due to global conditions. Moreover, US inflation remains stuck at low levels (far below the Fed's 2 percent target) due to lower oil prices and the strong US dollar.

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On Thursday (08/10) most emerging market currencies and stocks in Asia weakened as investors engaged in profit-taking (after having witnessed a remarkable rally over the past couple of days), while waiting for the release of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes (due later today). The Indonesian rupiah had weakened 0.33 percent to IDR 13,867 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index while the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 0.04 percent 4,487.09 by 15:00 pm local Jakarta time.

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Indonesia's rupiah and Malaysia's ringgit led gains among emerging market currencies in Asia on Wednesday (07/10) on the back of capital inflows (triggered by an expected delay in higher US interest rates), better-than-expected Malaysian export data and higher oil prices. The Indonesian rupiah appreciated 2.95 percent to IDR 13,821 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index), the strongest gain in seven years. Meanwhile, yields on ten- and 15-year Indonesian government bonds fell to 8.710 percent and 8.870 percent, respectively.

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Investors' confidence in Indonesia's rupiah restored over the past three days after markets began to believe that the US Federal Reserve has little scope to raise its key Fed Fund Rate this year (due to weak US non-farm payrolls and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI). Bank Indonesia's role should also be highlighted. Indonesia's central bank intervened heavily (through currency swaps and by using its foreign exchange reserves) to stabilize and keep the currency from weakening toward and beyond the IDR 15,000 per US dollar level. This tells investors that Bank Indonesia will not allow a worse decline.

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Indonesia again led gains in Asia amid global relief due to the possible delay in an US interest rate hike. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 2.35 percent to 4,445.78 points, while the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 1.81 percent to IDR 14,241 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Tuesday (06/10). After seeing the release of weak US non-farm payrolls on Friday (02/10) - triggering the assumption that US labor conditions are not strong enough to absorb an interest rate increase - global equity markets and emerging market currencies rebounded.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to strengthen sharply on Tuesday morning on global relief after weak US jobs growth data were released last Friday (02/10) dimming chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the end of the year. Yesterday, Asian markets, Wall Street and Europe all surged. Moreover, with US interest rates remaining at between 0.00 and 0.25 percent in the foreseeable future, investors are attracted by higher-yielding emerging market assets such as Indonesian stocks and the rupiah.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah experienced a remarkable rebound on Monday (05/10) as global markets were relieved to see weak US jobs growth data at the end of last week. On Friday (02/10), it was announced that US September non-farm payrolls stood at 142,000, far below the market consensus of 203,000. Most investors now believe that the US Federal Reserve has too little scope to raise its key interest rate before the end of the year or even before the second quarter of 2016.

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Asian stock indices surged on Monday morning (05/10) on relief that the Federal Reserve may need to postpone a key Fed Fund Rate hike after the release of weak US jobs data at the end of last week. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was up 2.40 percent to 4,309.71 points by 10:30 am local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the rupiah had appreciated 0.59 percent to IDR 14,559 per US dollar by the same time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Selama 12 bulan beruntun, aktivitas manufaktur Indonesia berkontraksi karena hasil produksi dan pesanan baru menurun. Nikkei/Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) turun menjadi 47,4 di September 2015 dari 48,4 di bulan sebelumnya dan di bawah perkiraan para analis (angka 50,0 memisahkan antara kontraksi dan ekspansi). Kontraksi September adalah penurunan tercepat kedua dalam aktivitas manufaktur Indonesia sejak indeks ini dimulai di awal 2012.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, abbreviated IHSG) made a positive start on Monday (25/11). Investors were confident amid today's rising indices throughout Asia, brought on by the record breaking Dow Jones Index on Wall Street at the end of last week. However, this market optimism failed to provide a significant boost to the IHSG as the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its downward spiral. The IHSG was up 0.39 percent to 4,334.80 points at the end of Monday's trading day.

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On the last day of the trading week (22/11), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) fell 0.19 percent to 4,317.96 points thereby extending its losing streak to three days as investors remain concerned about the looming end - or at least winding down - of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program known as quantitative easing (QE3). Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 38 billion (USD $3.3 million). The other indices in Asia were mixed. The Hang Seng and Nikkei were up but the Shanghai Composite was down.

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IHSG masih dalam laju pelemahannya setelah pelaku pasar turut merespon negatif hasil rapat FOMC yang mensinyalkan akan adanya pengurangan pembelian obligasi AS dalam beberapa bulan ke depan dan terimbas pelemahan laju bursa saham Asia setelah rilis pre-HSBC manufacturing PMI China menunjukkan adanya penurunan. IHSG yang sedang mencoba untuk keluar dari tren pelemahan menjadi berkurang peluangnya dengan maraknya sentimen-sentimen negatif sehingga memicu adanya aksi jual, termasuk laju nilai tukar Rupiah yang masih betah dalam tren penurunannya membuat pelaku pasar semakin kehilangan mood.

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The Federal Reserve, central banking system of the United States, expects that the current economic recovery of the USA is set to continue. In the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, held at end-October 2013, it is mentioned that within the next few months the Federal Reserve can start winding down its monthly USD $85 billion stimulus program (known as quantitative easing). The next FOMC meeting, which will shed more light on the future of the bond-buying program, is scheduled for December 2013.

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Tampaknya laju IHSG tidak sebaik sehari sebelumnya dimana mampu menguat jelang akhir sesi perdagangan. IHSG sedari awal perdagangan terus melaju melemah setelah terimbas penurunan bursa saham Asia. Seperti yang pernah kami katakan dimana setiap adanya kenaikan akan selalu dimanfaatkan untuk aksi jual sehingga penguatan yang sempat terjadi hanya bersifat terbatas dan tidak dapat bertahan lama.

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The government of Indonesia will release two additional fiscal policy packages at the end of November or start of December that both aim to heal Indonesia's current account deficit. The two packages constitute follow ups of the policy package that was released in August 2013. Previously, deputy minister of Finance, Bambang Brodjonegoro, announced that an additional package would be released in October. However, it turned out that the government needed some more time to prepare the two additional packages.

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Positifnya laju bursa saham Asia sepanjang sesi yang terimbas dari menghijaunya bursa saham AS dan Eropa di akhir pekan kemarin dan adanya spekulasi Pemerintah China akan melakukan reformasi ekonomi untuk menopang pertumbuhan negaranya dan berita positif dari tetapnya rating BBB- peringkat utang Indonesia oleh Fitch Rating memberikan angin segar pada IHSG pada hari Senin (18/11).

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On Thursday 14 November 2013, Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), delivered his end-of-the-year speech at the Annual Bankers’ Dinner. The meeting was attended by leaders from Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), economic ministers, leaders of the country's banking industry and business community, non-ministerial government agencies as well as a number of international institutions, thus representing a strategic forum in terms of the national economy.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue its rebound. On Friday (15/11), the IHSG fell 0.73 percent to 4,335.45 points amid widespread profit taking. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 193 billion (USD $16.9 million) on today's trading day. Moreover, investors are concerned about the impact of the higher interest rate of the central bank (7.50 percent), particularly on the property and banking sectors in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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Despite rising concerns about the slowing pace of the Indonesian economy, the deputy minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro reminded investors that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2013 still constitutes one of the highest growth rates around the globe. Economic expansion in Q3-2013 slid to 5.6% in Southeast Asia's largest economy. With the exception of China (7.8% GDP growth in Q3-2013), Indonesia's growth continues to outpace growth in other emerging markets, such as Brazil (3.3%) and Turkey (4%).

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