Although Indonesia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is currently still at a safe level at roughly 32.8 percent, the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) expressed its concern about the high debt service ratio (DSR) and debt-to-export ratio. The DSR is the ratio of debt service payments (principal and interest) of a country to its export earnings. Generally, a healthy ratio is somewhere in the range of 0 and 20 percent. However, Indonesia’s DSR has risen from 20 percent in 2007 to 50 percent in 2014.

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On 13 July 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economic topics such as the presidential election, an analysis of the interest rate environment, car sales, IPOs on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, a tender announcement, and more.

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After a trading week that was characterized by high gains in the stock and financial markets on optimism that Joko Widodo (Jokowi) will become the next president of Indonesia, both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell today (11/07). This seems an obvious sign that the euphoria about a Jokowi win has waned and investors are looking again to the true economic fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy. By 13:00 pm local Jakarta time, the Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 1.66 percent.

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The US dollar continues to depreciate against emerging currencies after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting, released Wednesday (09/07), suggest that the US central bank will maintain historic low interest rates (0.0 - 0.25 percent) into 2015. The Fed informed that US interest rates hikes will only occur ”a considerable time” after the US asset-buying program (quantitative easing) has ended. Based on the latest minutes, this program is expected to end in October 2014.

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Although not all quick count scores indicate a Joko Widodo (Jokowi) win, Indonesia’s stock and financial markets have gained considerably on Thursday (10/07) - one day after the 2014 Indonesian presidential election - on speculation that the General Elections Commission (KPU) will declare Jokowi the winner of the election on 22 July 2014. Out a total of 12 quick counts (mentioned below), eight showed a Jokowi win. Importantly, these seven quick counts include the authoritative agencies that traditionally have been highly accurate.

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According to data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 13 percent to 109,706 car units in June 2014 from the previous month (97,147 vehicles) as people increased car purchases ahead of the Idul Fitri (Lebaran) festivities, which commence after the holy fasting month of Ramadan has ended on 28 July. Idul Fitri involves the exodus of millions of Indonesians from the cities to their places of origin. Ahead of this celebration, car sales always increase.

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On 06 July 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economic topics such as the presidential election, a rupiah and stock market update, an analysis of inflation and the trade balance, corruption, poverty, GDP growth, prospects of the copper price, and more.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had depreciated 0.20 percent to IDR 11,819 per US dollar by 15:30pm local Jakarta time based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. This performance is in line with the performance of other emerging currencies in Asia, which all tend to weaken against today’s strengthening US dollar. One of the factors that pressures on the rupiah is the geopolitical tensions in Iraq which have resulted in a rising oil price (last week the oil price rose by 4.5 percent).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate has appreciated 0.50 percent to IDR 11,779 per US dollar by 16:00pm local Jakarta time on Monday (09/06). This performance is in line with the general trend in Asia where emerging market currencies strengthened against the greenback on today’s trading day. The rupiah is among today’s best-performing emerging currencies as it was boosted by the higher trade surplus of China (one of Indonesia’s most important trading partners) and economic growth in Japan.

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An improving US economy can lead to capital outflows worth IDR 130 trillion (US $11.2 billion) from Indonesia as funds are expected to flow back to the USA when interest rates are raised. Since 2009, emerging markets, including Indonesia, benefited from capital inflows amid large monetary stimulus provided by the Federal Reserve (quantitative easing as well as low interest rates). Although the stimulus was aimed at boosting the US economy, emerging markets felt the side effects (such as capital inflows and appreciating emerging market currencies).

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue its rebound. On Friday (15/11), the IHSG fell 0.73 percent to 4,335.45 points amid widespread profit taking. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 193 billion (USD $16.9 million) on today's trading day. Moreover, investors are concerned about the impact of the higher interest rate of the central bank (7.50 percent), particularly on the property and banking sectors in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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Despite rising concerns about the slowing pace of the Indonesian economy, the deputy minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro reminded investors that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2013 still constitutes one of the highest growth rates around the globe. Economic expansion in Q3-2013 slid to 5.6% in Southeast Asia's largest economy. With the exception of China (7.8% GDP growth in Q3-2013), Indonesia's growth continues to outpace growth in other emerging markets, such as Brazil (3.3%) and Turkey (4%).

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Seperti yang kami sampaikan sebelumnya dimana pelemahan terbatas akan sulit tercapai dengan negatifnya sentimen yang justru datang dari dalam negeri. Aksi jual masih dimungkinkan akan berlanjut dan akan berpengaruh pada masih melemahnya IHSG. Laju IHSG bukannya membaik, justru semakin anjlok. Tampaknya pelaku pasar, terutama asing, memanfaatkan rilis kenaikan BI rate tersebut untuk jor-joran melakukan aksi jual. Rilis kenaikan BI rate tersebut tampak menjadi pembenaran dilakukannya aksi jual besarbesaran tersebut.

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Laju IHSG yang awalnya hanya melemah tipis dan mencoba untuk rebound, jelang sore hari berubah menjadi pelemahan setelah dipersuram oleh hasil RDG BI yang menaikkan BI rate dari level 7,25 persen menjadi 7,5 persen. Kenaikan BI rate ini tentunya dipersepsikan bahwa kondisi makroekonomi Indonesia yang belum akan membaik dan terutama timbul juga penilaian bahwa masih akan tingginya inflasi hingga akhir tahun.

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Bank Indonesia decided to raise the BI rate by 25 bps to the level of 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate raised to 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy was taken in light of the persistently large current account deficit amid widespread global uncertainty. Therefore, the decision was taken in order to ensure that the current account deficit is reduced to a more sound level and inflation in 2014 returns to around 4.5±1 percent, thereby supporting sustainable economic growth.

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The Jakarta Composite index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index or IHSG) fell on Monday (11/11) amid mixed Asian markets. Not even positive finishes on Wall Street last Friday (08/11) were able to support the IHSG. Most investors seem to be waiting for results of Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's Meeting which is scheduled for Tuesday (12/11). This meeting will provide answers about the central bank's view of the domestic economy and whether it thinks another adjustement of the BI rate is necessary.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:

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Indonesian car sales have already exceeded the one million mark in October 2013. In the January-October period, 1,018,786 car units were sold, a ten percent increase compared to car sales in the same period last year. Growing demand for cars in Indonesia indicates that this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy is not influenced by current negative market sentiments, such as the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate (against the US dollar), high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013), and slowing economic growth.

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Contrary to most Asian indices, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) managed to post a gain on Thursday (07/11). The IHSG seemed to follow the upward movement of Wall Street on the previous day (06/11) after a number of Federal Reserve officials stated to support the continuation of the Fed's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (quantitative easing). Despite continued foreign net selling, the IHSG index rose 0.82 percent to 4,486.11 points as domestic purchases offset foreign selling.

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Indonesia will most likely not meet its original GDP growth target of 6.3 percent (stipulated in the 2013 State Budget). Yesterday (06/11), it was announced by Statistics Indonesia that Indonesia’s GDP growth figure in the third quarter of 2013 was recorded at 5.62 percent (year-on-year, yoy), the weakest quarterly growth figure since 2009 when the global financial crisis impacted on Southeast Asia’s largest economy. In 2013, Indonesia feels the global impact again, in combination with domestic factors.

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