Omset di industri makanan dan minuman olahan diprediksi akan bertumbuh 4-5% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) pada kuartal pertama di 2015 dari periode yang sama di tahun lalu. Adhi Lukman, Ketua Umum dari Gabungan Pengusaha Makanan dan Minuman Indonesia (GAPMMI), mengatakan bahwa faktor-faktor yang telah menghambat industri ini adalah penurunan subsidi bahan bakar, ekspor yang lambat, ketergantungan industri ini pada impor bahan mentah, melemahnya daya beli masyarakat karena rendahnya harga-harga komoditi, dan nilai tukar rupiah yang lemah.

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Di Indonesia, lampu sorot tetap tajam terfokus pada pelemahan drastis rupiah. Karena semakin berkembangnya spekulasi bahwa US Federal Reserve akan segera menaikkan tingkat suku bunga pinjamannya, aset-aset pasar berkembang (baik mata uang maupun saham) cenderung melemah. Walau sebagian besar mata uang Asia melemah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS), rupiah lebih rentan karena Indonesia sedang mengalami defisit transaksi berjalan yang besar. Hal ini menginformasikan kepada para investor bahwa negara ini bergantung pada capital inflows dari negara-negara asing.

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Saham-saham Indonesia dan nilai tukar rupiah kena dampak negatif dari penguatan nilai tukar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Senin (09/03) setelah rilisnya US payrolls yang lebih kuat dari prediksi sebelumnya dan karenanya memperkuat dugaan bahwa US Federal Reserve akan menaikkan suku bunga pinjaman acuannya pada bulan Juni. Terlebih lagi, pada minggu lalu, Gubernur bank sentral AS Janet Yellen telah memberikan sinyal kepada Konggres AS bahwa bank sentral AS mungkin akan mengurangi 'patient stance'. IHSG jatuh 1,25% ke 5.445,84 poin pada sesi perdagangan pertama di hari Senin (09/03).

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Pada 8 Maret 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletter-nya. Newsletter gratis ini, dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami satu kali setiap minggunya, berisi berita-berita paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami selama tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik bekaitan dengan isu-isu ekonomi seperti analisis performa rupiah, update inflasi terakhir, kesederajatan gender di Indonesia, dampak pertumbuhan kredit yang melambat pada prospek resiko di sektor perbankan Indonesia, dan banyak lagi.

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Pemerintah Indonesia meneruskan perjuangan mereka untuk meringankan kekuatiran masyarakat tentang dampak dari rupiah yang lemah pada perekonomian Indonesia. Bahkan, Pemerintah menekankan bahwa rupiah yang lemah akan berdampak positif pada neraca perdagangan dan neraca transaksi berjalan karena produk-produk ekspor Indonesia menjadi lebih kompetitif. Selama satu minggu ini, rupiah melemah 1% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Sejak awal 2015, rupiah telah jatuh 4,4% terhadap dollar AS, karenanya menjadi salah satu mata uang di negara-negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk di tahun ini.

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Ketika nilai tukar rupiah jatuh di bawah batasan yang menguatirkan yaitu Rp 13,000 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Rabu (05/03), baik Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro dan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) mengatakan bahwa tidak perlu panik karena performa rupiah terhadap dollar AS masih sejalan dengan performa mata uang-mata uang lain terhadap dollar AS. Berdasarkan pada Bloomberg Dollar Index, nilai rupiah telah melemah 0,28% menjadi Rp 13,028 pada pukul 13:35 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB).

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While most Southeast Asian stock markets and emerging Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday (03/03) on the back of a rebounding yen and - contrary to expectation - the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave its cash rate a record low of 2.25 percent, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah performed rather flat. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.06 percent to 5,474.62 points, while the Indonesian rupiah rate appreciated 0.01 percent to IDR 12,969 according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Nilai tukar rupiah - sejalan dengan nilai tukar mata uang negara-negara berkembang lain di Asia - mengalami dampak negatif akibat pemotongan suku bunga di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT). Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, nilai rupiah menurun 0,40% menjadi Rp 12,984 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada pukul 11:10 WIB pada hari Senin (02/03), sangat mendekati batasan yang menguatirkan yaitu Rp 13,000 per dollar AS. Pada hari Sabtu yang lalu (28/02), bank sentral RRT mengumumkan pemotongan suku bunga deposito (1 tahun) dan suku bunga pinjaman (1 tahun) sebanyak 25 point menjadi masing-masing 2,5% dan 3,5%.

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Nilai tukar rupiah melemah 0,79% menjadi Rp 12.932 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index pada hari Jumat (27/02), level terendah sejak akhir 2008, setelah bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) menyatakan tidak berencana melakukan terlalu banyak intervensi untuk mendukung rupiah. Bank Indonesia (BI) menyatakan tidak memiliki level target untuk rupiah dan tidak akan melawan pasar. Statemen ini merupakan sinyal-sinyal bahwa BI nyaman dengan rupiah yang lemah demi memperbaiki neraca transaksi berjalan.

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After Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated that the US central bank will be patient in raising the interest rate environment in the world’s largest economy, Indonesian assets gained on Wednesday (25/02). Both the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate strengthened 0.51 percent yesterday. Apart from increased speculation that the Fed will not raise interest rates before summer, expectation that Greece will avoid a disastrous default brought more positive market sentiments.

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On Thursday (22/08), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue the rebound that occurred yesterday when the country's biggest pension fund, Jamsostek, began buying blue-chip stocks in a move to support the ailing index. Indonesia's benchmark index has now lost about 20 percent since its record peak in May 2013. Today, it fell 1.11 percent to 4,171.41 points. Eight sectoral indices weakened, of which the top losers were construction (-5.78 percent), basic industry (-3.42 percent), and finance (-2.39 percent).

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Concerns about Indonesia's weakening rupiah intensified on Wednesday (21/08) as the currency is now balancing on the psychological boundary of IDR 11,000 per US dollar. The rupiah continued its downward spiral today although its decline was limited due to the intervention of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) that started selling US dollars again in an effort to support the rupiah. According to data compiled by Reuters, the rupiah has now fallen 10.7 percent this year.

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On Tuesday (20/08), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) continued its decline with its fourth consecutive day of losses. Amid major concerns about Indonesia's economic growth, high inflation, tighter monetary policy and current account deficit, the IHSG fell 3.21 percent to 4,174.98 points. It means that the index now stands about 21 percent lower than its record peak in May 2013. Foreign investors have been pulling money out of the Indonesian market. According to Bloomberg, about USD $255 million has been retracted in the last two days.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to allocate IDR 336.24 trillion (USD $32.6 billion) for subsidy spending in the 2014 state budget draft: IDR 284.7 trillion (USD $27.6 billion) for energy subsidies and IDR 51.6 trillion (USD $5.0 billion) for non-energy subsidies. The proposed amount implies a 3.41 percent fall in total subsidy allocation compared to Indonesia's state budget in 2013. However, despite a reduction, subsidy expenditure is still large at 18.5 percent of total government spending (IDR 1,816.7 trillion).

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Analysts expect that Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) will end mixed today (20/08) after yesterday's large plunge amid heavy market concerns. Yesterday, the index dropped 5.58 percent to 4,313.52 points, the lowest since October 2011. Indonesia posted a current account deficit in the second quarter of 2013, while Thailand entered into a recession. The MSCI Emerging Market index¹, which includes both countries, fell 1.4 percent to a six-week low. Below a short overview of factors that caused negative sentiments on Indonesia's market.

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After two days of growth, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) became victim of profit taking on Thursday (15/08). Particularly domestic investors were eager to sell their Indonesian assets. Falling indices on Wall Street on Wednesday (14/08) in combination with global uncertainty about the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program made a negative impact on Asian stock indices, including the IHSG. Indonesia's central bank's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% was well-received by most investors.

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The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia keep on falling from its historical peak of USD $124.64 billion in August 2011 to USD $92.67 billion at the end of July 2013. This development seems to highlight long-standing weaknesses in Indonesia's sovereign's external finances, as credit agency Fitch Ratings detected on several occasions before. The republic of Indonesia is currently characterized by four deficits, to wit a current account deficit, a balance of payments deficit, a trade balance deficit and a fiscal deficit.

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After Wall Street turned back into the green zone on Tuesday (13/08) and was accompanied by continued rising stock indices in Europe, it provided good support for Asian stock indices on Wednesday (14/08), including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG). Indonesian mining commodities and plantation stocks fell but these losses were offset by rising big cap stocks (particularly finance stocks) and speculation that Indonesia's central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 6.50 percent.

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Worldwide, most stock indices fell on Wednesday (07/08), particularly Japan's Nikkei index, after it has been speculated that the Federal Reserve may phase out the third round of its quantitative easing program in September 2013. This program, involving a monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying package, aims to spur US economic growth while keeping interest rates low. However, one important side effect has been rising stock markets around the globe. Now the end of QE3 is in sight, investors shy away from riskier assets.

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Indonesia’s inflation rate in July 2013 was significantly higher than analysts had previously estimated. The country’s July inflation figure accelerated to 3.29 percent. On year-on-year basis, it now stands at 8.61 percent, the highest inflation rate since many years. Particularly food commodity and transportation prices rose steeply. The main reason for Indonesia's high inflation is the reduction in fuel subsidies. In late June, the government increased the prices of subsidized fuels in order to relieve the ballooning budget deficit.

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