Due to heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike in December, the US dollar was pushed to a seven-month high today. As a consequence, the rupiah depreciated 0.73 percent to IDR 13,722 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Moreover, the strong US dollar impacted negatively on commodity prices. Many commodity prices, including oil, copper and nickel plunged severely on today's trading day. For key commodity producers, which include Indonesia, falling commodity prices put pressure on assets.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi inflasi headline akan mencapai 2,79% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) dalam setahun penuh 2015, di bawah cakupan target bank sentral yaitu 3-5%. Inflasi di Indonesia pada tahun ini rendah, berakumulasi menjadi 2,16% di 10 bulan pertama tahun 2015, dan Bank Indonesia memperkirakan bahwa laju inflasi akan tetap terkontrol di dua bulan terakhir tahun 2015.

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Aset-aset Indonesia ditutup dengan kuat pada hari Jumat (20/11). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah sama-sama menguat secara signifikan karena meningkatnya kejelasan mengenai kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS), sementara Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) mengumumkan bahwa Pemerintah RRT akan mengimplementasikan lebih banyak usaha untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, karenanya menguatkan nilai tukar yuan (mendukung penguatan nilai mata uang di negara-negara berkembang di Asia). IHSG naik 0,94% menjadi 4.561,33 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 1,10% menjadi Rp 13.623 per dollar AS (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Total outstanding foreign debt of Indonesia fell to USD $302.4 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2015, down USD $2.1 billion from the end of the preceding quarter. The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said both public and private external debt declined in Q3-2015 as both sectors were reluctant to take up new (overseas) debt amid global uncertainties, Indonesia's sluggish economic growth, and the fragile rupiah (ahead of looming capital outflows brought about by higher US interest rates).

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Stock indices in Asia were mixed on Wednesday (18/11), while most emerging market currencies depreciated against the US dollar. The Indonesian rupiah was under pressure - touching a six week low - after the central bank (Bank Indonesia) cut the primary minimum statutory reserves from 8.00 percent to 7.50 percent (effective per 1 December 2015), hence providing local financial institutions approximately USD $1.8 billion more in liquidity. However, it may not be enough to trigger an increase in lending as banks are more focused on lending quality than quantity.

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In line with other Asian stock indices, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rebounded sharply on Tuesday (17/11), boosted by the performance on Wall Street overnight where the major indices rose more than one percent. Positive sentiments are caused by a big jump in oil prices, while worries about the negative impact of the terrorist attack in Paris proved unfounded. By 11:55 am local Jakarta time, the Jakarta Composite Index was up 1.59 percent to 4,512.64 points. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 0.12 percent to IDR 13,732 per US dollar by the same time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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On the first trading day after the terrorist attacks in Paris (leaving 129 people dead and hundreds injured), stocks declined in Asia as investors are cautious. Although markets had one weekend to digest the news, it is still expected that the tragedy in Paris will cause a sharp yet short-term impact on global equity markets. Apart from terrorism, volatile oil prices as well as concern about China's economy and uncertainty about the timing of a US interest rate hike continue to plague markets.

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Di seluruh dunia, indeks-indeks saham jatuh karena kekuatiran berkepanjangan mengenai rendahnya harga komoditi (terutama karena harga minyak mentah menurun ke level terendah selama 2 bulan terakhir dan mungkin mulai kembali mendekati level 40 dollar AS), kekuatiran mengenai perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), sementara pasar juga bersiap-siap untuk kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember (sebuah tindakan yang akan memicu capital outflows dari aset-aset negara berkembang yang lebih berisiko). Bulan ini pasar berada di bawah tekanan jual yang besar setelah mengalami reli di bulan Oktober.

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Saham-saham Asia menghadapi tekanan pada hari Jumat (13/11) karena rendahnya harga minyak dan meningkatnya perkiraan bahwa Federal Reserve akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin di bulan Desember. Saham-saham sumberdaya alam menarik turun indeks-indeks saham di Australia, Hong Kong dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) lebih dari 1%. Kendati begitu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), melawan tren di Asia, telah naik 0,51% menjadi 4.485,12 poin pada pukul 10:20 WIB kendati indeks-indeks Asia yang ada di zona merah. Sementara itu, dollar AS menguat terhadap mata uang Asia namun tidak setajam perkiraan sebelumnya.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.01 percent to 4,451.59 points on Wednesday (11/11) despite foreign investors recording a net sell of IDR 614.4 billion (approx. USD $45.5 million). Uncertainty persists in the global economy as more macroeconomic data from China signal weaknesses in the world's second-largest economy. Growth in output from China's factories declined to a six-month low in October (missing expectations), following earlier disappointing trade and inflation data. On the other hand, it triggers hope that Beijing will step up stimulus measures.

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Concerns about Indonesia's current account balance increased after Bank Indonesia announced last week that the country's current account deficit widened to USD $8.02 billion, or 3.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the second quarter of 2018. It is Indonesia's highest quarterly deficit since Q3-2014, thus putting additional pressures on the rupiah exchange rate.

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There are doubts whether Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth can reach 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018 as Indonesia is experiencing a couple of major challenges. Challenges include the global trade war, the fragile rupiah, Bank Indonesia's higher benchmark interest rate, the current account deficit, and political tensions ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Currently, Indonesia Investments' forecast for Indonesia's economic growth is set at 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2018.

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Chief executive officers (CEOs) in Indonesia have become slightly less optimistic about the Indonesian economy and politics. This makes sense considering the presence of simmering global trade tensions, sharp rupiah depreciation against the US dollar, and Bank Indonesia's recent series of interest rate hikes.

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One of the national industries that is heavily affected by the weak rupiah exchange rate is Indonesia's pharmaceutical industry. Considering around 90 percent of raw materials in the pharmaceutical industry need to be imported from abroad (in US dollars), production costs rise sharply in times of significant rupiah depreciation. It is estimated that materials imported from abroad account for about 75 percent of pharmaceutical companies' total production costs.

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In an ad hoc press conference on Thursday (26/04) Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo provided an update on the performance of the Indonesian rupiah as well as an update on the strategies that are - or can be - used by the central bank to safeguard a stable rupiah. When the ad hoc press conference was announced we initially expected to see an interest rate hike. However, based on a statement from Bank Indonesia, this seems to be the last option the central bank wants to use.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.24 percent to 6,229.63 points on Tuesday (24/04). The performance of Indonesian stocks were in line with the general trend in Southeast Asia. Due to rising US treasury yields (touching nearly 3 percent, its highest level since January 2014) investors withdraw their funds from riskier assets in emerging markets. Concerns over US inflation and the fiscal deficit are behind the rising US treasury yield.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said the country's current account deficit remained under control, albeit widening in the last quarter of 2017. Indonesia's current account deficit reached USD $5.8 billion or 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Q4-2017 (up from a deficit of USD $4.6 billion or 1.7 percent of GDP in the preceding quarter).

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Although the Indonesian rupiah has been strengthening against the US dollar since mid-December 2017, the rupiah may encounter serious pressures in the year 2018 amid US tax reforms, the US Federal Reserve's further monetary tightening, and unstable geopolitics. Meanwhile, Indonesian exports are expected to grow, but only in the range of 5-6 percent year-on-year (unlike 2017 when the nation's exports rebounded 17 percent).

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Earlier this week, the central banks of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), Thailand (Bank of Thailand) jointly announced the launch of the local currency settlement framework. This framework aims at boosting the use of local currencies in transactions (specifically related to trade and investment) conducted between Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in an effort to reduce these countries' dependence on the US dollar.

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The Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors agreed to hold the BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate at 4.25 percent, while maintaining the deposit facility and lending facility rates at 3.50 percent and 5.00 percent, respectively, effective per 20 October 2017. The decision was in line with efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability, while stimulating the domestic economic recovery.

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