Waspadalah terhadap penipu yang aktif di WA mengatasnamakan Indonesia Investments
19 June 2025 (closed)
Jakarta Composite Index (6,968.64) -139.15 -1.96%
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Both Indonesia's Trade Ministry and the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) confirmed that the mandatory national insurance for coal and crude palm oil (CPO) exports regulation has been postponed by another six months. Thus the regulation is now expected to come into effect per 1 February 2019.
According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country's trade balance showed a USD $1.74 billion surplus in June 2018. It was a much bigger surplus than had been estimated by analysts, primarily caused by weaker import growth than had been predicted by analysts.
After a (revised) USD $1.63 billion trade deficit in April 2018, Indonesia posted another big trade deficit in the following month. In May 2018 Indonesia's trade deficit reached USD $1.52 billion, slightly lower from the deficit in the preceding month but still constituting a wider deficit than had been expected by analysts. Despite rising exports in May, a soaring crude oil price managed to put big pressures on Indonesia's trade balance.
The Indonesian government scrapped Trade Ministry Regulation No. 82/2017 on the Terms of Use of National Shipping and Insurance Companies for the Export and Import of Certain Goods. This regulation, which was originally scheduled to be implemented in May 2018 (but its implementation had already been postponed), would have made it mandatory to use local vessels (owned by Indonesian sea shipping companies) for the export of coal, crude palm oil (CPO), and rice.
Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade balance showed a USD $1.63 billion deficit in April 2018. The deficit, which surprised most analysts' expectations, is the nation's biggest monthly trade deficit in four years (April 2014). While exports grew 9.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $14.47 billion, imports grew much more impressive - at a pace of 34.7 percent (y/y) - to USD $16.09 billion last month.
Indonesia posted a surprising USD $1.1 billion trade surplus in March 2018, the country's largest trade surplus since October 2017 and effectively ending a three-month trade deficit streak. Suhariyanto, Head of Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), told reporters at a press conference on Monday (16/04) that the trade surplus was caused by a USD $2.0 billion surplus in the non-oil & gas sector. The balance in the oil & gas sector, however, remained negative (showing a USD $924.5 million deficit in March).
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects the nation’s trade balance to swing into surplus in March 2018, after recording two monthly trade deficits in January and February (USD $756 million and USD $116 million, respectively), as pressures from imports of raw materials and capital goods are seen sliding. Incumbent Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said a USD $1.1 billion surplus is possible in the third month of 2018, implying the trade balance would show a surplus, overall, in the first quarter of 2018.
Trade finance, a facility to finance export and import activities, remains attractive for the banking sector of Indonesia in 2018. In the first two months of 2018 trade finance surged 20 percent.
After receiving criticism from various stakeholders, the Indonesian government reportedly decided to postpone the implementation of a new regulation that requires all domestic coal, palm oil and rice exporters to use ships that are owned by local sea shipping companies and requires them to use domestic insurance.
Indonesia's current account balance - the sum of the balance of trade (goods and services exports less imports), net income from abroad and net current transfers - showed a deficit of 1.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017, narrowly improving from a 1.8 percent deficit in the preceding year and constituting the lowest deficit since 2012.
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The government of Indonesia is yet to find a middle way between encouraging the development of processing facilities for the country's mining output and the relaxation of mineral ore exports. Based on Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law), exports of mineral ore should have been fully banned in 2014. However, due to the lack of domestic smelting capacity a last-minute regulation was signed in early January 2014 by former Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono that softened this ban.
Indonesia is eager to enhance trade relations with Europe through the establishment of the Indonesia-European Union (EU) Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). Thomas Lembong, Indonesia's Trade Minister, said joining this free trade deal will modernize and improve Indonesia's existing trade regulations. Joining the Indonesia-EU CEPA is the current top priority of the Indonesian government in terms of free trade deals. It aims to have reached an agreement with the EU by late-2017. Afterwards, Indonesia will seek to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and it also showed interest to join the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).
Broad market trends in the Indonesian rupiah have held relatively consistent over the last year, with a modest devaluation seen against the US dollar. We did see fluctuations in these trends during the summer months but many of these moves came as a result of external influences. One of the best examples here is the media turmoil that posted during this period with respect to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and this has left many investors wondering whether the rupiah will be able to stand on its own merits and reverse some of its earlier weakness.
Indonesia has always been hesitant to join free-trade deals with other nations on fears that domestic industries cannot compete with foreign counterparts, which could lead to an influx of cheaper, yet higher-quality foreign products. During his visit to the White House, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said Indonesia intends to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Back home, this statement led to concern. What are the negative consequences for Indonesia when joining this deal?
Indonesia mencatat surplus perdagangan sebesar 1,02 miliar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada bulan September 2015, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan para analis dan naik dari surplus perdagangan direvisi yang dicatat pada 328 juta dollar AS pada bulan sebelumnya. Ini adalah bulan kesepuluh secara beruntun terjadi surplus perdagangan di Indonesia. Kendati begitu, surplus perdagangan bulan September terutama disebabkan karena impor yang menurun cepat dan merefleksikan lemahnya pertumbuhan investasi dan lemahnya konsumsi di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini.
Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia this year from five percent (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) due to the perceived hard landing of China’s economy in combination with sluggish conditions in Japan and the Eurozone. Weak demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and the top trading partner of Indonesia, is expected to continue to plague Indonesian exports and earnings.
For most of this year, the financial media has held a generally positive tone. There have been some exceptions in cases like the Eurozone which is still mired in a deeply divided sovereign debt crisis. But for most of the world, 2015 has been a positive period in terms of general growth in their broad trends. So it might be easy for macro investors to assume that most markets are currently establishing themselves in the bullish direction.
For most of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has met selling pressure against the US Dollar. Year-to-date price activity in the USD/IDR shows a rise from below IDR 12,250 to new highs above IDR 13,330 per US dollar. For Indonesian export companies, this is great news as it means that their products will be cheaper for foreign consumers to buy. For the domestic economy, this creates a different set of implications as it also makes it less likely that foreign investors will be looking to buy into Indonesian assets.
Sejak akhir 2011 Indonesia telah dibebani oleh defisit transaksi berjalan struktural yang menguatirkan baik para pembuat kebijakan maupun para investor (asing). Meskipun pihak berwenang di Indonesia telah mengimplementasikan reformasi kebijakan dan penyesuaian perekonomian di beberapa tahun terakhir, defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia hanya sedikit berubah di 2015. Baik Bank Dunia maupun Bank Indonesia memprediksi bahwa defisit transaksi berjalan akan tetap berada sedikit di bawah 3% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) di 2015, sangat dekat dengan batasan yang memisahkan defisit yang sustainable dan yang unsustainable.
Kalau kita memperhatikan aktivitas jangka panjang rupiah, kita telah melihat kekuatan yang mengejutkan dalam aktivitas beberapa bulan terakhir. Hal ini mengejutkan karena beberapa alasan yang berbeda dan tidak serupa dengan keadaan pasar negara berkembang lain di Asia. Secara esensial ini menyarankan bahwa aktivitas perekonomian di wilayah ini telah agak kurang berhubungan dan bahwa trend yang tampak di satu negara tidak bisa diprediksi sama di negara lain. Namun ketika kita melihat grafik aktivitas di rupiah sendiri, kita bisa melihat trend secara umum telah mulai berubah di dua bulan terakhir.
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