Although Indonesia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is currently still at a safe level at roughly 32.8 percent, the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) expressed its concern about the high debt service ratio (DSR) and debt-to-export ratio. The DSR is the ratio of debt service payments (principal and interest) of a country to its export earnings. Generally, a healthy ratio is somewhere in the range of 0 and 20 percent. However, Indonesia’s DSR has risen from 20 percent in 2007 to 50 percent in 2014.

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On 13 July 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economic topics such as the presidential election, an analysis of the interest rate environment, car sales, IPOs on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, a tender announcement, and more.

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After a trading week that was characterized by high gains in the stock and financial markets on optimism that Joko Widodo (Jokowi) will become the next president of Indonesia, both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell today (11/07). This seems an obvious sign that the euphoria about a Jokowi win has waned and investors are looking again to the true economic fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy. By 13:00 pm local Jakarta time, the Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 1.66 percent.

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The US dollar continues to depreciate against emerging currencies after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting, released Wednesday (09/07), suggest that the US central bank will maintain historic low interest rates (0.0 - 0.25 percent) into 2015. The Fed informed that US interest rates hikes will only occur ”a considerable time” after the US asset-buying program (quantitative easing) has ended. Based on the latest minutes, this program is expected to end in October 2014.

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Although not all quick count scores indicate a Joko Widodo (Jokowi) win, Indonesia’s stock and financial markets have gained considerably on Thursday (10/07) - one day after the 2014 Indonesian presidential election - on speculation that the General Elections Commission (KPU) will declare Jokowi the winner of the election on 22 July 2014. Out a total of 12 quick counts (mentioned below), eight showed a Jokowi win. Importantly, these seven quick counts include the authoritative agencies that traditionally have been highly accurate.

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According to data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 13 percent to 109,706 car units in June 2014 from the previous month (97,147 vehicles) as people increased car purchases ahead of the Idul Fitri (Lebaran) festivities, which commence after the holy fasting month of Ramadan has ended on 28 July. Idul Fitri involves the exodus of millions of Indonesians from the cities to their places of origin. Ahead of this celebration, car sales always increase.

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On 06 July 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economic topics such as the presidential election, a rupiah and stock market update, an analysis of inflation and the trade balance, corruption, poverty, GDP growth, prospects of the copper price, and more.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had depreciated 0.20 percent to IDR 11,819 per US dollar by 15:30pm local Jakarta time based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. This performance is in line with the performance of other emerging currencies in Asia, which all tend to weaken against today’s strengthening US dollar. One of the factors that pressures on the rupiah is the geopolitical tensions in Iraq which have resulted in a rising oil price (last week the oil price rose by 4.5 percent).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate has appreciated 0.50 percent to IDR 11,779 per US dollar by 16:00pm local Jakarta time on Monday (09/06). This performance is in line with the general trend in Asia where emerging market currencies strengthened against the greenback on today’s trading day. The rupiah is among today’s best-performing emerging currencies as it was boosted by the higher trade surplus of China (one of Indonesia’s most important trading partners) and economic growth in Japan.

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An improving US economy can lead to capital outflows worth IDR 130 trillion (US $11.2 billion) from Indonesia as funds are expected to flow back to the USA when interest rates are raised. Since 2009, emerging markets, including Indonesia, benefited from capital inflows amid large monetary stimulus provided by the Federal Reserve (quantitative easing as well as low interest rates). Although the stimulus was aimed at boosting the US economy, emerging markets felt the side effects (such as capital inflows and appreciating emerging market currencies).

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For three consecutive days, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) had to cope with significant losses. On Tuesday (11/06), the index fell 3.50 percent to 4,609.95 points, considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 3.98 trillion (USD $406.1 million) as domestic conditions in Indonesia are unstable. Moreover, investors are concerned about governments (USA and Japan) that want to slow down their stimulus programs as various economic data are showing positive outcomes.

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Negative market sentiments, especially originating from within Indonesia, made investors shy away from Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) on Monday (10/06). Similar to last Friday, when the index fell 2.70 percent, foreign investors continued to sell large proportions of their Indonesian stock portfolios. The index lost 1.81 percent today as investors are concerned about the current state of Indonesia's economy. Other major indices of Asia were mixed but with a strengthening tendency, despite weak data from China.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was mixed on Tuesday's trading day (04/06) as negative market sentiments were still felt after yesterday's tumble (inflicted by Indonesia's April trade deficit). Foreigners continued to sell parts of their Indonesian stock portfolios causing the index to fall below the psychological boundary of 5,000 points, which also meant that it went into oversold territory. But the rise of the Yen, thus supporting Asian indices, in combination with positive openings in Europe made the IHSG rise in the end.

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Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday (30/05). Particularly Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) was negatively influenced by Wednesday's falling stock indices in Europe and the USA. In this context, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) was hit as well and fell 1.37 percent to 5,129.65 points. Moreover, the continuing decline of the IDR rupiah makes market participants less enthusiastic to purchase Indonesian stocks. Foreigners were also anxious to sell part of their stock portfolios.

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The upward movement of American and European stock indices on Tuesday (28/05) made a good impact on Indonesia's main index (IHSG) on Wednesday (29/05). Despite Asian markets being mixed and the Hang Seng Index (usually the reference point for Asian indices) falling, the IHSG succeeded in surpassing the next psychological boundary at 5,200 points. Overall, foreign investors recorded a net sell but it was offset by a net buy in a number of big caps: Perusahaan Gas Negara, Jasa Marga, Indo Tambangraya Megah and United Tractors.

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Although the stock markets of the USA and England were closed on Monday (27/05), strong European and Asian indices indicated that market participants were back in business. This also applied to the main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG), which regained the points it had lost on Monday. A number of blue-chips were chased by investors: Astra International, Unilever Indonesia, Lippo Cikarang and Semen Indonesia. Foreigners were particularly interested in stocks of Bank Mandiri, Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa, and Waskita Karya.

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The weak stock indices in Europe and USA at the end of last week had a negative impact on stock indices in Asia on Monday (27/05/13), including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG). Investors rushed to reduce their stock portfolios, which resulted in an 1.36 percent fall to 5,085.14 points. At the end of last week, the IHSG had formed a green candlestick but today there were no continued positive signals as the market lacked positive sentiments. But a number of rising Asian indices and the positive openings of European stock indices managed to support the IHSG a bit.

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Various negative sentiments made investors decide to engage in profit taking today (23/05). As Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) had already reached the overbought area, it is highly susceptible of profit taking in case some negative news is released. But this time there were quite a lot of matters that made a negative impact: weak American indices on Wednesday (22/05) responding to the FOMC meeting, a spike in Japan's government bond yields, and Chinese manufacturing data that seems to indicate a contraction.

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Although Indonesia’s government stresses the need to relieve pressure on the state budget (by raising the price of subsidized fuel next month), it plans to allocate an additional IDR 16.1 trillion (USD $1.65 billion) to this year’s fuel subsidy budget. The additional allocation, which covers fuel, LPG and vegetable fuels, will raise government expenditure on fuel subsidies to IDR 209.9 trillion (USD $21.50 billion) from the IDR 193.8 trillion drafted in the original 2013 state budget (APBN 2013). Total energy subsidies will grow to IDR 309.9 trillion this year.

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American stock indices that refrained from staying in the green zone at the end of Monday's trading session (20/05/13) made market participants less enthusiastic to invest in Asian stocks. Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was one of the indices that felt this impact as a lack of positive sentiments blocked it from rising to another record high level. Investors were also concerned about profit taking because the index had reached the overbought level. When European indices opened weak on Tuesday it increased downward pressures on the IHSG.

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