Asian stocks are again in deep red territory on Thursday (14/01), led by Chinese shares (which are on track to enter a bear market) as well as Japanese shares. It means that the rebound that had occurred earlier this week - caused by positive export data from China - was short-lived. The continued slide of oil prices (below USD $30 per barrel) and turmoil in China cause money to flow away from equity and fragile emerging market currencies.

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On Wednesday (13/01) Indonesia's central bank is set to start its monthly policy meeting. A novelty this year is that the monthly policy meetings of Bank Indonesia will take two days instead of one. Another interesting novelty is that Bank Indonesia invited Indonesia's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution to attend the central bank's first policy meeting of 2016. Analyst opinions about whether Bank Indonesia has room to cut its relatively tight monetary policy are mixed.

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Penjualan secara besar-besaran terus berlangsung di Asia pada Senin (11/01). Indeks-indeks saham di Asia - yang dipimpin oleh Shanghai Composite Index Republik Rakyat Tingkok (RRT) - jatuh parah. Inflasi RRT yang teredam pada bulan Desember, Shanghai Composite Index yang terjun 5,33% hari ini, turunnya harga minyak, dan jatuhnya saham di Wall Street akhir pekan lalu (saham Amerika Serikat mengalami minggu terburuknya dalam empat tahun terakhir), membuat investor mencari aset yang aman (safe haven) seperti emas, yen Jepang dan dollar AS. Sementara itu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia turun 1,78% menjadi 4.465,48 poin.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) mengumumkan bahwa cadangan devisa negara ini telah meningkat tajam pada bulan Desember 2015. Pada akhir bulan terakhir tahun 2015 aset devisa tercatat sebesar 105,9 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), naik dari 100,2 miliar dollar AS di bulan sebelumnya. Ini adalah hasil yang luar biasa karena ekonomi global dan domestik masih terganggu oleh ketidakpastian dan arus modal yang volatil (pada bulan Desember Federal Reserve akhirnya menaikkan Fed Fund Rate utamanya sebesar 25 poin basis).

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Saham dan mata uang di seluruh Asia berada di bawah tekanan berat pada hari Kamis (07/01) setelah bank sentral Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) menetapkan kurs yuan 0,51% lebih rendah (di 6.564,6 per dollar Amerika Serikat). Akibatnya, saham RRT anjlok lebih dari 7% (memicu mekanisme circuit-breaking baru - untuk hari kedua di minggu ini - 30 menit setelah perdagangan dibuka hari ini). Saham Asia juga lemah dikarenakan kerugian besar di Eropa dan di Wall Street semalam. Pasar bereaksi terhadap harga minyak yang turun ke level terendah dalam lebih dari tujuh tahun terakhir menjadi 33,97 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per barel.

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Meskipun kebanyakan pasar saham di Asia masih di wilayah merah, melanjutkan penurunan pada hari Senin, saham Indonesia dan rupiah berhasil melambung pada Selasa (5/1). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,70% menjadi 4.557,82 poin. Sementara itu, rupiah Indonesia naik 0,37% menjadi Rp 13.892 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Apa yang terjadi pada perdagangan hari ini dan mengapa ada perbedaan antara aset Indonesia dan tren Asian secara umum?

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Berlawan dengan harapan, saham Indonesia dan rupiah memiliki awal yang lemah di tahun yang baru. Pada hari Senin (4/1) Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,46% menjadi 4.525,92 poin, sementara rupiah terdepresiasi 0,82% menjadi Rp 13.943 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Kinerja saham Indonesia ini sejalan dengan kinerja saham di seluruh dunia. Perdagangan saham Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) bahkan dihentikan dua kali karena indeksnya merosot. Apa yang terjadi hari ini?

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Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia mengeluarkan pernyataan pada hari Minggu (3/1) yang menyatakan bahwa Indonesia gagal memenuhi sebagian besar target ekonomi yang ditetapkan dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBN-P) 2015. Alasan utama dari lemahnya kinerja adalah harga komoditi yang rendah, pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lesu, perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), dan arus keluar modal yang dipicu oleh pengetatan kebijakan moneter Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS). Hanya realisasi inflasi dan hasil treasury yield yang sejalan dengan target pemerintah.

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Meskipun tantangan tetap ada, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) diperkirakan naik pada tahun 2016, melebihi level 5.000 poin. Tahun lalu IHSG turun 12,13% menjadi ditutup pada 4.593,01 poin. Khususnya untuk sektor infrastruktur, perbankan, konsumsi, semen, properti dan konstruksi di Indonesia diprediksi akan memiliki kinerja yang baik tahun ini karena percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik yang didukung oleh pengeluaran pemerintah dan paket stimulus ekonomi baru-baru ini.

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Hari perdagangan terakhir tahun 2015 di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) telah berlalu dan sekarang saatnya untuk melihat kembali kinerja Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah selama tahun 2015. Tahun 2015 merupakan tahun yang hektik, ditandai dengan volatilitas tinggi karena ketidakpastian tentang waktu kenaikan tingkat suku bunga AS (yang akhirnya diputuskan oleh Federal Reserve pada bulan Desember 2015) dan perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia, or BI) decided to maintain its record low policy rate for the 15th straight month at 5.75 percent as it is considered consistent with its inflation target range of 3.5-5.5 percent in 2013 and 2014. The central bank also stated that the global economic recovery is accompanied by many uncertainties which result in a lower forecast for Indonesia's economic growth. The full press release of Bank Indonesia can be read below.

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Although most Asian stock indices went up on Wednesday (10 April 2013), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) could not cling on to their movement. In fact, even the main index of South Korea, a country plagued by political tensions, reported a rise. The IHSG was not able to follow suit due to investors' profit taking. Foreign market participants recorded a net sell, particularly Indonesia's blue chip stocks, which caused the index to end at 4,877.48, a 0.45 percent fall.

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In its most recent report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Indonesia to continue its robust economic growth. Last year, the economy of Indonesia expanded 6.23 percent, and according to the ADB this figure will rise to 6.4 percent in 2013 and 6.6 percent in 2014. However, since the start of April there have been some issues that are causing Indonesia's stock indices to go down. Although believed to be only temporary, it is worth taking a closer look.

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On Monday, the Dow Jones Index gained as corporate results of Q1-2013 are estimated to be good. This subsequently had a positive impact on Asian stock indices on Tuesday, including Indonesia's main index (IHSG). Moreover, positive news from both Australia and China were well-received as well as the higher metal price (reflected by Hong Kong's rising Hang Seng Index). Amid this positivity, investors took the opportunity to enlarge their stock portfolios.

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Last week Friday, American stock markets were not able to maintain a positive trend due to Nonfarm Payrolls that increased below expectation. Moreover, concerns about a spreading bird flu epidemic in China in combination with increased political tensions in Korea impacted on Monday's trading day (8 April 2013) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). The index had to absorb a sell-off, thus closing lower to 4,897.52, an 0.58 percent decline.

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The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) experienced a mixed week. At the start of the week, the index rose, but towards the end of the week it weakened, although ending in the green on Friday. Recently, the IHSG has hit record levels, and this makes market participants worried that the index might fall in case there emerge negative market sentiments. These concerns are what made the index turn away from the next psychological boundary: 5,000 points.

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On Thursday 4 April 2013, market players were hoping that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) would climb beyond the psychological level of 5,000. However, the presence of negative market sentiments - and the overbought condition of the IHSG - were used as reasons to engage in profit taking. It consequently pushed down Indonesia's main financial market indicator to the level of 4,922.61, an 1.18 percent fall compared to Wednesday's trading day.

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Despite positive results of monthly US Factory Orders and Economic Optimism, it did not support Asian stock markets up to the end of Wednesday's trading day. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), on the other hand, maintained its upward movement to reach 4,981.47, a 0.49 percent gain. Matters that supported the IHSG's performance to yet another new record high level, were well-received 2012 company reports as well as expected dividend payouts.

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Usually, news about inflation is not well-received by market participants. Particularly when inflation turns out to be higher than expected. This time, however, something interesting happened in Indonesia. Although the country's March inflation rate was high (5.90 percent year-on-year), it was not followed up by a negative response of market players. In fact, the inflation rate seems to have strengthened the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), which gained 0.40 percent on Tuesday.

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With a number of important global stock exchanges still closed due to Easter, it seemed that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) lacked a reference point to which it could cling. It is also likely that market participants have already consumed most of the 2012 corporate company reports and are therefore not waiting for new data of listed companies. Moreover, today's announcement of the relative high inflation rate of March did not support the IHSG either.

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