It is expected to be another difficult day for Indonesian stocks and the rupiah as there are few to none positive market sentiments that can support these assets on today’s trading day. Wall Street closed lower on Thursday (23/07) for the third consecutive day on disappointing financial results of several big companies, dragging down indices in the East. Commodity indices continue to fall (oil returning to bear market on resilient US output and rising OPEC supply). Meanwhile, sharp rupiah depreciation makes investors nervous.

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Rupiah kembali menyentuh batasan psikologis Rp 13.400 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, mata uang Indonesia telah melemah 0,22% menjadi Rp 13.405 per dollar AS pada pukul 11:22 WIB pada hari Kamis (23/07), sebuah level yang terakhir disentuh rupiah saat Indonesia masih kena dampak Krisis Finasial Asia pada tahun 1998. Melewati batasan psikologis ini bisa berarti bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) akan kembali mengintervensi untuk mendukung rupiah dalam rangka melindungi kepercayaan terhadap rupiah.

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Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah terus melemah pada hari Senin (20/07). Mata uang Indonesia melemah 0,31% menjadi Rp 13.395 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), level terlemahnya sejak 1998 waktu negara ini dilanda oleh Krisis Finansial Asia. Sementara itu, aktivitas Bank Indonesia masih terbatas sampai hari Rabu (22/07) karena libur umum (perayaan Idul Fitri), menyebabkan bank sentral untuk sementara tidak mempublikasikan Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR).

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Indonesia mencatat surplus perdagangan 477 juta dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada bulan Juni 2015, surplus perdagangan ke-7 secara beruntun. Meskipun begitu, menurut data terakhir dari BPS, diterbitkan pada hari Rabu (14/07), ekspor Indonesia pada Juni ini jatuh 12,8% (year-on-year) menjadi 13,4 miliar dollar AS, sementara impor jatuh 17,4% (year-on-year) menjadi 12,9 miliar dollar AS. Angka-angka ini menunjukkan bahwa surplus perdagangan Indonesia terutama disebabkan oleh permintaan domestik yang lemah dan lebih melambat daripada permintaan global (yang terus melambat juga). Kondisi ini meningkatkan kekuatiran mengenai pertumbuhan perekonomian domestik dan global.

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Seperti yang telah diprediksi, Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada hari Selasa (14/07). BI rate yang menjadi acuan dipertahankan pada 7,50%, sementara fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Bank Indonesia meyakini bahwa kondisi tingkat suku bunga saat ini sejalan dengan upaya untuk menurunkan inflasi dan juga mendukung rupiah yang melemah menjelang perkiraan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) di kemudian hari pada tahun ini.

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Sejalan dengan tren global, saham Indonesia terus naik pada Selasa (14/07). Kebanyakan indeks-indeks saham (di seluruh dunia) terus bergerak dalam wilayah hijau setelah Yunani yang dibebani banyak hutang mencapai kesepakatan dengan kreditor internasionalnya - setelah pertemuan darurat selama 17 jam - untuk sebuah paket penghematan yang akan tetap mempertahankan Yunani di dalam zona euro. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) telah naik 0,60% menjadi 4.923,36 poin pada pukul 11:45 WIB pada hari Selasa.

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Kebanyakan analis setuju bahwa Bank Indonesia akan mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga yang sama dalam pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang dijadwalkan untuk dilaksanakan pada hari Selasa 14 Juli 2015. Bank sentral Indonesia dipediksi akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00% karena tingkat inflasi Indonesia telah meningkat cepat baru-baru ini sementara rupiah mengalami tekanan karena faktor-faktor eksternal.

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Pengiriman kopi Indonesia ke Eropa telah naik karena melemahnya rupiah dan panen kopi yang lebih banyak. Ekspor biji robusta dari Pulau Jawa bertumbuh 22,1% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Juni 2015. Sementara itu, para pedagang Eropa memprediksi pengiriman yang besar akan berlanjut di bulan Juli. Rupiah Indonesia adalah mata uang negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk yang dicatat Bloomberg, melemah hampir 7,2% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) sejauh ini di tahun ini. Sisi positif dari mata uang yang lemah adalah ekspor negara ini menjadi lebih atraktif.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), predicts that the current economic turmoil in the Eurozone, caused by the Greek debt crisis, will impact on the stability of developing countries, including Indonesia. Although in terms of both trade and investment there should not be a real impact originating from Greek turmoil, the perception of macroeconomic stability will be somewhat hit on the back of global uncertainty. In line with most markets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday (06/07).

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Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia, or BI) decided to maintain its record low policy rate for the 15th straight month at 5.75 percent as it is considered consistent with its inflation target range of 3.5-5.5 percent in 2013 and 2014. The central bank also stated that the global economic recovery is accompanied by many uncertainties which result in a lower forecast for Indonesia's economic growth. The full press release of Bank Indonesia can be read below.

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Although most Asian stock indices went up on Wednesday (10 April 2013), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) could not cling on to their movement. In fact, even the main index of South Korea, a country plagued by political tensions, reported a rise. The IHSG was not able to follow suit due to investors' profit taking. Foreign market participants recorded a net sell, particularly Indonesia's blue chip stocks, which caused the index to end at 4,877.48, a 0.45 percent fall.

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In its most recent report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Indonesia to continue its robust economic growth. Last year, the economy of Indonesia expanded 6.23 percent, and according to the ADB this figure will rise to 6.4 percent in 2013 and 6.6 percent in 2014. However, since the start of April there have been some issues that are causing Indonesia's stock indices to go down. Although believed to be only temporary, it is worth taking a closer look.

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On Monday, the Dow Jones Index gained as corporate results of Q1-2013 are estimated to be good. This subsequently had a positive impact on Asian stock indices on Tuesday, including Indonesia's main index (IHSG). Moreover, positive news from both Australia and China were well-received as well as the higher metal price (reflected by Hong Kong's rising Hang Seng Index). Amid this positivity, investors took the opportunity to enlarge their stock portfolios.

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Last week Friday, American stock markets were not able to maintain a positive trend due to Nonfarm Payrolls that increased below expectation. Moreover, concerns about a spreading bird flu epidemic in China in combination with increased political tensions in Korea impacted on Monday's trading day (8 April 2013) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). The index had to absorb a sell-off, thus closing lower to 4,897.52, an 0.58 percent decline.

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The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) experienced a mixed week. At the start of the week, the index rose, but towards the end of the week it weakened, although ending in the green on Friday. Recently, the IHSG has hit record levels, and this makes market participants worried that the index might fall in case there emerge negative market sentiments. These concerns are what made the index turn away from the next psychological boundary: 5,000 points.

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On Thursday 4 April 2013, market players were hoping that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) would climb beyond the psychological level of 5,000. However, the presence of negative market sentiments - and the overbought condition of the IHSG - were used as reasons to engage in profit taking. It consequently pushed down Indonesia's main financial market indicator to the level of 4,922.61, an 1.18 percent fall compared to Wednesday's trading day.

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Despite positive results of monthly US Factory Orders and Economic Optimism, it did not support Asian stock markets up to the end of Wednesday's trading day. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), on the other hand, maintained its upward movement to reach 4,981.47, a 0.49 percent gain. Matters that supported the IHSG's performance to yet another new record high level, were well-received 2012 company reports as well as expected dividend payouts.

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Usually, news about inflation is not well-received by market participants. Particularly when inflation turns out to be higher than expected. This time, however, something interesting happened in Indonesia. Although the country's March inflation rate was high (5.90 percent year-on-year), it was not followed up by a negative response of market players. In fact, the inflation rate seems to have strengthened the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), which gained 0.40 percent on Tuesday.

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With a number of important global stock exchanges still closed due to Easter, it seemed that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) lacked a reference point to which it could cling. It is also likely that market participants have already consumed most of the 2012 corporate company reports and are therefore not waiting for new data of listed companies. Moreover, today's announcement of the relative high inflation rate of March did not support the IHSG either.

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