Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) diprediksi tidak akan mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang akan dilaksanakan hari Kamis. Pada saat ini suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI rate) berada pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00%. Bank sentral tampaknya berkomitmen pada tingkat suku bunga yang relatif tinggi ini karena inflasi Indonesia telah naik menjadi 7,15% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan Mei, sementara rupiah menyentuh level terendah selama 17 tahun terakhir pada 9 Juni 2015.

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In line with the performance of most other stock indices in Asia today (15/06), Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell over one percent in the first trading session. Primary reasons for this weak performance are concerns about stalled negotiations between Greece and its Eurozone creditors. Negotiations broke down without a deal on the bailout aid causing raising worries about a Greek default on its debt (a payment is due at the end of this month) as well as a Greek exit from the Eurozone (“Grexit”).

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Immediately after the opening of trade on Wednesday (10/06), Indonesian stocks rebounded sharply. Yesterday, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) had fallen 2.30 percent due to worries about looming higher US interest rates later this year, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone, heavy rupiah depreciation, and weak domestic macroeconomic data (such as Indonesia’s high inflation, disappointing Q1-2015 economic growth, the still wide current account deficit, and the central bank’s falling forex reserves).

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Indonesian stocks declined more than expected during the first trading session on Tuesday (09/06). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 3.12 percent to 4,858.31 points amid heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike as well as worries about the Greek debt situation in the Eurozone. The performance of other Asian stock indices was mixed on Tuesday morning with Shanghai, Singapore and South Korea showing modest gains, while New Zealand, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Taiwan were down marginally.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is well aware of the continuation of the "currency war" as a side-effect of further monetary tightening in the USA. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said on Monday (08/06), quoted by state news agency Antara, that he sees a currency war continuing over the next three years provided that the Federal Reserve starts to tighten its monetary approach gradually. Markets expect the Fed to raise US interest rates in September 2015.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are experiencing severe pressures at the start of the new trading week. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 1.68 percent to 5,014.99 points (a seven-month low), while the rupiah depreciated 0.71 percent to IDR 13,385 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (08/06). As such, the rupiah extended its record-low closing in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are the worst performing Asian assets.

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The Indonesian rupiah continues to be a cause for concern as the currency immediately depreciated heavily after trading opened on Monday (08/06). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah hit a new record-low of IDR 13,382 per US dollar in the post Asian Financial Crisis era at 9:10 am. Due to a lack of domestic and international positive sentiments only central bank intervention can support the country's ailing currency. Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks followed suit by declining 0.70 percent shortly after opening.

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The Indonesian rupiah continued to set a new record-low in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 13,290 per US dollar on Friday (05/06), the weakest level since 1998. A number of factors are responsible for this weak performance. These include higher bond yields, US dollar demand due to dividend repatriation and debt repayment, Indonesia’s high inflation, uncertainty about the Greek debt crisis and looming higher US interest rates.

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Karena nilai rupiah Indonesia terus melemah pada hari Kamis (04/06), hampir menyentuh tingkat terendah selama 17 tahun, seorang pejabat bank sentral mencoba meringankan kekuatiran dengan menyatakan bahwa Bank Indonesia selalu ada di di pasar forex dan obligasi untuk memonitor pergerakan dan meringankan volatilitas. Pada hari Kamis pagi, bond yield, yang telah meningkat sejak Jumat (29/05), pada 8,198%. Berdasarkan Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah telah melemah 0,11% menjadi Rp 13.245 pada pukul 11:10 WIB.

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In line with other stock indices in Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) has been weakening since the start of trading on Wednesday (03/06). Yesterday’s weakening indices on Wall Street, concern about rising bond yields, worries about the possibility of a default by debt-ridden Greece, and weak macroeconomic data from Indonesia have all contributed to the negative performance of Indonesian stocks so far today. By 11:15 am local time, the Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 1.42 percent.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia, or BI) decided to maintain its record low policy rate for the 15th straight month at 5.75 percent as it is considered consistent with its inflation target range of 3.5-5.5 percent in 2013 and 2014. The central bank also stated that the global economic recovery is accompanied by many uncertainties which result in a lower forecast for Indonesia's economic growth. The full press release of Bank Indonesia can be read below.

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Although most Asian stock indices went up on Wednesday (10 April 2013), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) could not cling on to their movement. In fact, even the main index of South Korea, a country plagued by political tensions, reported a rise. The IHSG was not able to follow suit due to investors' profit taking. Foreign market participants recorded a net sell, particularly Indonesia's blue chip stocks, which caused the index to end at 4,877.48, a 0.45 percent fall.

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In its most recent report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Indonesia to continue its robust economic growth. Last year, the economy of Indonesia expanded 6.23 percent, and according to the ADB this figure will rise to 6.4 percent in 2013 and 6.6 percent in 2014. However, since the start of April there have been some issues that are causing Indonesia's stock indices to go down. Although believed to be only temporary, it is worth taking a closer look.

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On Monday, the Dow Jones Index gained as corporate results of Q1-2013 are estimated to be good. This subsequently had a positive impact on Asian stock indices on Tuesday, including Indonesia's main index (IHSG). Moreover, positive news from both Australia and China were well-received as well as the higher metal price (reflected by Hong Kong's rising Hang Seng Index). Amid this positivity, investors took the opportunity to enlarge their stock portfolios.

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Last week Friday, American stock markets were not able to maintain a positive trend due to Nonfarm Payrolls that increased below expectation. Moreover, concerns about a spreading bird flu epidemic in China in combination with increased political tensions in Korea impacted on Monday's trading day (8 April 2013) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). The index had to absorb a sell-off, thus closing lower to 4,897.52, an 0.58 percent decline.

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The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) experienced a mixed week. At the start of the week, the index rose, but towards the end of the week it weakened, although ending in the green on Friday. Recently, the IHSG has hit record levels, and this makes market participants worried that the index might fall in case there emerge negative market sentiments. These concerns are what made the index turn away from the next psychological boundary: 5,000 points.

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On Thursday 4 April 2013, market players were hoping that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) would climb beyond the psychological level of 5,000. However, the presence of negative market sentiments - and the overbought condition of the IHSG - were used as reasons to engage in profit taking. It consequently pushed down Indonesia's main financial market indicator to the level of 4,922.61, an 1.18 percent fall compared to Wednesday's trading day.

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Despite positive results of monthly US Factory Orders and Economic Optimism, it did not support Asian stock markets up to the end of Wednesday's trading day. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), on the other hand, maintained its upward movement to reach 4,981.47, a 0.49 percent gain. Matters that supported the IHSG's performance to yet another new record high level, were well-received 2012 company reports as well as expected dividend payouts.

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Usually, news about inflation is not well-received by market participants. Particularly when inflation turns out to be higher than expected. This time, however, something interesting happened in Indonesia. Although the country's March inflation rate was high (5.90 percent year-on-year), it was not followed up by a negative response of market players. In fact, the inflation rate seems to have strengthened the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), which gained 0.40 percent on Tuesday.

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With a number of important global stock exchanges still closed due to Easter, it seemed that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) lacked a reference point to which it could cling. It is also likely that market participants have already consumed most of the 2012 corporate company reports and are therefore not waiting for new data of listed companies. Moreover, today's announcement of the relative high inflation rate of March did not support the IHSG either.

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