The overall capacity utilization of Indonesia's steel industry could grow to 80 percent from 50 percent currently. However, it will require government support. Hidayat Triseputro, Executive Director of the Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association (IISIA), is optimistic this target can be achieved as the government's push for infrastructure development is showing positive signs (in the second half of 2015 there have been more groundbreaking ceremonies for large government-led infrastructure projects across the country).

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China's yuan (also known as renminbi) was included in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) - with a weightage average of 10.91 percent - on Tuesday (01/12), a decision that will take effect on 1 October 2016. Other currencies in the SDR are the US dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen. This move implies that the currency of the world's second-largest economy is increasingly regarded as a global financial instrument and will be increasingly used in transactions across the globe and widely traded on foreign exchange markets.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday morning (30/11). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was down 0.84 percent to 4,522.09 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 13,830 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 11:15 am local Jakarta time. Negative sentiments still stem from China and the looming Fed Fund Rate hike in December, while there are few to none domestic sentiments that can support the nation's assets.

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Aset-aset Indonesia ditutup dengan kuat pada hari Jumat (20/11). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah sama-sama menguat secara signifikan karena meningkatnya kejelasan mengenai kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS), sementara Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) mengumumkan bahwa Pemerintah RRT akan mengimplementasikan lebih banyak usaha untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, karenanya menguatkan nilai tukar yuan (mendukung penguatan nilai mata uang di negara-negara berkembang di Asia). IHSG naik 0,94% menjadi 4.561,33 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 1,10% menjadi Rp 13.623 per dollar AS (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Saham-saham di Asia diprediksi akan berada di bawah tekanan hari ini karena harga minyak mentah turun 2,9% semalam setelah American Petroleum Institute menerbitkan sebuah laporan yang menyatakan suplai minyak Amerika Serikat (AS) bertambah secara tak terduga sebesar 6,3 juta barel. Harga komoditi lain juga turun setelah penerbitan data output industri yang jatuh dari Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) pada hari Rabu. Kendati begitu, dengan penjualan ritel RRT yang positif di bulan Oktober (kenaikan terkuat pada tahun ini) sedikit kemungkinan akan terjadi stimulus besar baru dari pihak berwenang RRT.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.01 percent to 4,451.59 points on Wednesday (11/11) despite foreign investors recording a net sell of IDR 614.4 billion (approx. USD $45.5 million). Uncertainty persists in the global economy as more macroeconomic data from China signal weaknesses in the world's second-largest economy. Growth in output from China's factories declined to a six-month low in October (missing expectations), following earlier disappointing trade and inflation data. On the other hand, it triggers hope that Beijing will step up stimulus measures.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Kebanyakan indeks saham di Asia jatuh pada perdagangan hari Selasa (10/11) karena kekuatiran bahwa kemacetan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) berdampak negatif pada laju pertumbuhan ekonomi global, sedangkan pasar bersiap-siap menghadapi ancaman kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS) sebelum akhir tahun. Terlebih lagi, sentimen-sentimen di Asia Tenggara tidaklah positif karena mayoritas laporan pendapatan kuartal 3 tahun 2015 tidaklah memuaskan. Bila dikombinasikan, hal ini memicu peralihan ke aset-aset yang lebih aman. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) jatuh 1,08% menjadi 4.451,05 poin.

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With a staggering 271,000 jobs added to the US economy in October, exceeding forecasts by a big margin, while the US unemployment rate eased to 5.0 percent, the majority of analysts and market participants now expect to see a 25 basis points Fed Fund Rate hike in December (markets are currently pricing in a 70 percent chance of a December US rate hike). Meanwhile, trade data from China underscore the persistent economic slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. What are the effects of these issues on Indonesian assets?

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Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mixed after opening on Monday (09/11). While, Japanese shares touched a fresh 2.5 month high on a weaker yen and Chinese shares went up (despite disappointing trade data), shares in Indonesia, South Korea and Australia were down. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell approximately 0.50 percent after opening on Monday, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.83 percent to IDR 13,676 per US dollar by 09:16 am local Jakarta time.

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On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).

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Pasar saham di Indonesia telah menjadi sangat tidak stabil dalam minggu-minggu terakhir, dan ini telah membuat banyak investor menduga-duga apakah rally yang dimulai pada Oktober lalu masih dapat bertahan dan bisa dilanjutkan. Minggu lalu, MSCI Indonesia Index (yang diperdagangkan dengan simbol saham EIDO) mengalami kejatuhan besar - dari posisi yang jauh di atas batas 6.500 menjadi di bawah batas 6.000. Dari perspektif persentase, gerakan seperti ini bisa menyebabkan kerugian yang signifikan untuk mereka yang membeli saham-saham Indonesia saat harganya masih ada pada level tingkat atas.

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Investment realization in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2015 totaled IDR 124.6 trillion (USD $9.7 billion), up 16.9 percent from the same quarter last year. Domestic direct investment climbed 22.8 percent (y/y) to IDR 42.5 trillion, while foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 14 percent (y/y) to IDR 82.1 trillion in Q1-2015. These data, released by the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on Tuesday (28/04), brought some positivity in Indonesia after listed companies’ weak Q1-2015 financial results led to concern and capital outflow.

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In late 2014 Indonesian rubber producers and exporters were not amused when the government of China decided to approve a new standard for compound rubber imports. The permitted crude rubber content in imported compound rubber was cut from 95-99.5 percent to 88 percent, meaning that compound rubber imports into China became subject to a 20 percent import duty (the same tariff as natural rubber import duties). China’s new policy is a blow to its rubber suppliers, which include Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Monday (02/03). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 12,970 per US dollar, a six-year low. Apart from general bullish US dollar momentum in recent months (amid monetary tightening in the USA), the rupiah weakened due to Bank Indonesia’s signals that it tolerates a weaker currency in a move to boost exports (limiting the country’s current account deficit), and due to China’s interest rates cut.

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Positive macroeconomic data of Indonesia - involving the significantly lower trade deficit in 2014 and easing inflation - had a good impact on the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday (03/02) although prior to closing the currency somewhat slid after Australia's central bank cut its interest rates causing speculation of further policy easing around the Asia Pacific region in a move to support sluggish growth and avert deflation. Most emerging Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday against the US dollar on stronger risk appetite.

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Indonesian stocks hit a record high on Thursday (22/01). Most emerging Asian stocks and currencies strengthened on increased speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is to launch a massive bond-buying program (which was confirmed later on the day after Asian markets had closed), a move aimed at boosting inflation in the Eurozone and which puts pressure on euro-denominated assets. The euro had depreciated 1.67 percent against the US dollar by 11:20 ET on Thursday based on Bloomberg data.

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There was few good news from a global economic perspective as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply cut its outlook for global economic growth in the next two years. According to the IMF, global economic growth will only reach 3.5 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 3.7 percent in 2016 due to poorer prospects in China, Russia, the Eurozone, and Japan. Economic growth of China (the world’s second-largest economy) fell to a 24-year low at 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2014, below the government target of 7.5 percent (y/y).

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Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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