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Berita Hari Ini Monetary Policy
On Monday 5 August 2024 Indonesia Investments released the July 2024 edition of its monthly report. This report discusses various economic, political and social topics that were relevant (to Indonesia) in the month of July 2024.
On Sunday (04.02.2024) Indonesia Investments released the January 2024 edition of its monthly report. The report offers analyses of various economic, political and social topics that are relevant in the present.
In March 2022 the US Federal Reserve started to tighten its monetary policy in an aggressive manner to combat high US inflation that –at one point– touched a 40-year high.
Before we give an update on the monetary policy of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), it is worth mentioning that Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo was appointed for another five-year term (2023-2028) as the central bank’s chief.
On 06 March 2023, Indonesia Investments released its latest monthly report titled 'Normalizing Economic Growth'. As usual, we aim to present in-depth analyses of topics that are relevant in the context of economic, political and social developments in Indonesia.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate (BI 7-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) after concluding its two-day policy meeting on 18-19 January 2023. Indonesia’s benchmark rate now stands at 5.75 percent. It also raised its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
On 5 February 2023, Indonesia Investments released the January 2023 edition of its monthly report. This report discusses and analyses a number of important economic, social and political topics (all related to Indonesia) that were relevant in the month of January 2023.
As expected, the central bank of Indonesia (henceforth: Bank Indonesia) decided to raise its benchmark interest rate (the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50 percent after concluding its latest (two-day) monetary policy meeting on 21-22 December 2022. Meanwhile, it also decided to raise the deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 4.75 percent and 6.25 percent, respectively.
On Wednesday (07.12.2022) Indonesia Investments released the November 2022 edition of its monthly report. In this report we zoom in on the most important economic, political, and social developments of Indonesia over the past month.
Last month we stated that Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) might just be at the start of a (prolonged) monetary tightening cycle. After all, higher interest rates is what we see happening across the world; a development that is led by the Federal Reserve (Fed) that has been aggressively raising its benchmark interest rate to fight inflation. This then causes capital outflows from most other parts of the world.
Artikel Terbaru Monetary Policy
Sejak akhir 2011 Indonesia telah dibebani oleh defisit transaksi berjalan struktural yang menguatirkan baik para pembuat kebijakan maupun para investor (asing). Meskipun pihak berwenang di Indonesia telah mengimplementasikan reformasi kebijakan dan penyesuaian perekonomian di beberapa tahun terakhir, defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia hanya sedikit berubah di 2015. Baik Bank Dunia maupun Bank Indonesia memprediksi bahwa defisit transaksi berjalan akan tetap berada sedikit di bawah 3% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) di 2015, sangat dekat dengan batasan yang memisahkan defisit yang sustainable dan yang unsustainable.
Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to hold the country’s key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent at the Board of Governor’s Meeting conducted on Tuesday 17 March 2015. Bank Indonesia said that its decision is in line with its ongoing efforts to push inflation back to the target range of 4±1 percent for both 2015 and 2016, and to guide the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of GDP in the medium term.
Indeks harga konsumen Indonesia turun di bulan Februari 2015, mencatat deflasi 0,36% dalam basis month-on-month (m/m), sementara tingkat inflasi tahunan (y/y) nasional berkurang menjadi 6,29%, turun dari 6,96% (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya. Tekanan-tekanan inflasi berkurang terutama karena menurunnya harga cabai dan bahan bakar. Berkurangnya tingkat inflasi di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini bisa menyediakan ruang bagi bank sentral (Bank Indonesia) untuk memotong suku bunga lebih lanjut di tahun ini.
A team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by David Cowen (advisor at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department), visited several Indonesian cities in the first three weeks of December 2014 to conduct research on the economic fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy. This research included the study of recent macroeconomic developments as well as the formulation of prognosis scenarios for the short and middle term. The IMF team held discussions with the government, Bank Indonesia, private entrepreneurs and scholars.
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Indonesia’s sovereign rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade). Baradita Katoppo, President Director of Indonesia’s Fitch Ratings branch, said that the firm is positive about the country’s financial fundamentals and prudent fiscal policy as the central bank has showed to prefer stability over growth, resulting in slowing credit growth and rising foreign exchange reserves in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Economic growth is expected to fall to 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014.
Indonesia’s fuel subsidy policy is estimated to have a large influence on investors’ confidence in the financial or fiscal fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy and thus on the performance of the local stock index and currency. New president elect Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) is expected to raise prices of subsidized fuels after taking office in late October 2014 in an attempt to combat the country’s wide current account deficit (mainly caused by expensive oil imports to meet domestic fuel demand).
At Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors’ Meeting today (13/02), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent as well as the interest rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. The policy is consistent with the tight monetary policy stance currently adopted in order to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.
On Thursday 12 December 2013, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced that the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) remains unchanged at the level of 7.50 percent in December 2013. This announcement was a bit surprizing as about 80 percent of analysts expected Bank Indonesia to raise the BI rate in order to support the depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate. Starting the year at IDR 9,670 per US dollar, the rupiah has fallen around 25 percent to IDR 12,081 per US dollar.
With slowing economic growth and a stricter monetary policy approach of the central bank, Indonesia's ceramic industry is expected to record slowing growth in 2014. This year, the country's ceramic sales are projected to amount to 400 million square meters (m²). About 12 percent of this amount is exported to countries abroad. However, in 2014, sales are expected to plunge by 5 to 10% to 360-380 million m². A weakening rupiah and slowing property sector, which accounts for significant ceramic demand, are the major causes of the decline.
The government of Indonesia will release two additional fiscal policy packages at the end of November or start of December that both aim to heal Indonesia's current account deficit. The two packages constitute follow ups of the policy package that was released in August 2013. Previously, deputy minister of Finance, Bambang Brodjonegoro, announced that an additional package would be released in October. However, it turned out that the government needed some more time to prepare the two additional packages.
