In early May 2024 the International Coffee Organization (ICO) released a statement in which it said global robusta coffee bean prices have reached their highest level in 45 years amid tightening supplies (as coffee bean harvests in Vietnam, which is the world’s biggest robusta producer, have been disappointing since last year when the El Nino weather phenomenon brought prolonged dry weather to Southeast Asia).

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Indonesia is the world’s second-largest natural rubber producer (and therefore also ranks as the world’s second-biggest rubber exporter, after Thailand). However, this industry has also been facing some serious challenges. In this article, we are going to take a closer look at Indonesia’s rubber industry.

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In July 2023 we saw a relatively modest trade surplus for Indonesia at USD $1.31 billion, down heavily from USD $3.45 billion in the previous month when it was the weak import performance that allowed Southeast Asia’s largest economy to enjoy a wide trade surplus.

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The Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released Indonesia’s Q1-2022 gross domestic product (GDP) data on 9 May 2022. Based on its calculation the Indonesian economy expanded 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y), which is in fact better –albeit very modestly– than our projection that was set at 5.0 percent (y/y).

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Over the past decade or so many analysts – including us – have pointed out that the structural deficit in Indonesia’s current account balance is a serious weakness.

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For many people coffee is the perfect beverage to start the day. Thanks to caffeine, a cup of coffee stimulates people’s physical and mental performance, hence allowing us to be more productive. So, when your employer allows you to have a coffee break at work, it could very well be in his/her interest as you are about to become more productive!

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While Indonesia Investments predicted the decline in imports into Indonesia in May 2021 – after Ramadan and Idul Fitri momentum had passed – we were surprised to see a significant drop in the country’s exports that same month.

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Over the past couple of months Indonesia’s export performance improved markedly on the back of stronger commodity prices. Considering Indonesia is blessed with the presence of a wide variety of commodities (involving all three types of commodities, namely: agriculture, energy, and metals), the country’s exports obviously get a major boost in times of strengthening commodity prices.

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In September Indonesia’s consumer price index (CPI) deflated by 0.27 percent month-to-month (m/m), particularly due to a decline in food commodity prices. This is good news as we had detected some potential threats to Indonesia’s inflation rate in the August 2019 edition of out monthly report. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s core inflation has remained stable, signaling that deflation is not caused by weakening purchasing power.

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Earlier this week US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 10 percent import tariffs on USD $200 billion worth of Chinese export products by 30 August 2018, thus further escalating the trade war between the USA and China. While earlier US tariffs focused mostly on industrial goods, the new list of proposed import tariffs includes various commodities (metals, energy and agriculture) as well as consumer products. As a result most commodity prices were in red territory on Wednesday (11/07).

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Shareholders of Astra Agro Lestari, Indonesia's largest agribusiness company by value (which is particularly engaged in palm oil and rubber plantations), agreed to distribute IDR 1.08 trillion (USD $111 million) in dividends to its shareholders. The allocated amount is equivalent to about 45 percent of the company's net profit in 2012. Dividend per share is set at IDR 685 (USD $0.071). Last November, the company had already paid interim dividend of IDR 230 per share. Final dividend will be paid on 3 June 2013.

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Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its World Economic Outlook (edition April 2013) titled "Hopes, Realities and Risks". In the report, the IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth from an initial 3.5 percent (January edition) to 3.3 percent currently. Although the IMF lowered its economic forecasts for most countries (including emerging markets as a whole), it revised up its projection for the ASEAN-5 countries¹ by 0.3 percent to 5.9 percent.

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Last week, I provided a basic introduction to investments in Indonesia's capital markets. Now, I will devote my column to the ten largest Indonesian companies by market capitalization. But first let me explain why I take the ten largest companies? Well, simply because these ten companies account for 43.71 percent of Indonesia's total market capitalization. In other words, they reflect almost half of the current condition of the country's capital markets.

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Yesterday, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institution, released Indonesia's export and import numbers of February 2013. Indonesia's imports reached US $15.32 billion, while its exports stood at US $14.99 billion. It has thus resulted in the continuation of a trade deficit (US $327.4 million). For Indonesia, which always reported trade surpluses until last year, it is a worrying scenario as the trade deficit and higher inflation put pressure on the IDR rupiah.

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This week, the World Bank published its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ, edition March 2013) titled 'Pressures Mounting'. It reports on key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. To read the whole report, please visit the World Bank's website at www.worldbank.org or download this edition directly through this link. Below we present the executive summary.

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The chairman of the Indonesia Coal Mining Association said that Indonesia's coal exports are expected to increase from 310 million tons in 2012 to 330 million tons in 2013, a 6.5 percent increase. Coal producers have been facing a tough period since July 2008 when global coal demand weakened and triggered volatile - but mostly declining - coal prices ever since. Coal demand from China and India, however, is expected to increase this year.

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Indonesian companies engaged in the production of a variety of agricultural products, such as palm oil, experienced a rather poor year in 2012 regarding net profit. Global economic turmoil has reduced the world's consumption of palm oil in both the developed markets and developing markets. In particular decreased demand from China, the world’s biggest buyer after India, made a negative impact on the balance sheets of Indonesian companies.

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The Indonesian government - through its Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry - has stated to provide fiscal incentives to encourage oil and gas exploration in Indonesia. Indonesia, a former OPEC member, has recorded a declining oil production since the 1990s due to a lack of exploration and investments in this sector. To reverse this situation, the government will provide a number of tax exemptions.

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