The International Monetary Fund (IMF) detects a slowdown in GDP growth in major emerging market economies and decline in commodity prices, and more recently, a reversal in push factors tied to a prospective exit from extraordinarily easy global monetary conditions, has put pressure on Indonesia’s balance of payments and heightened its vulnerability to shocks. Domestic policy accommodation and rising energy subsidies have also given rise to increased external and fiscal imbalances.

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Indonesia Investments uploaded the preliminary company profile of Intraco Penta (INTA). The company is an Indonesian heavy equipment manufacturer and distributor which distributes various heavy equipment brands, such as Volvo, Ingersoll-Rand, Bobcat, SDLG, Mahindra and Sinotruk. The company integrates a wide range of businesses from sales of heavy equipments (both new and used), financing, rental of heavy equipments, manufacturing, engineering and mining contracting.

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Although the ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is set to start on 12 January 2014, is expected to result in a direct revenue loss of USD $4 billion in 2014 due to a decline in mineral exports, Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro believes that from 2016 onward a trade surplus can be recorded in Indonesia's minerals sector. In 2014, Indonesia's minerals sector may show a USD $10 billion trade deficit. But exports of processed minerals may grow from USD $4.9 billion in 2013 to USD $9 billion in 2015.

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Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of Salim Ivomas Pratama. The company, controlled by the Salim Group, is one of Indonesia's largest vertically integrated agribusiness players. It is a leading oil palm plantation company that - besides producing crude palm oil, fresh fruit bunches, palm kernel and other palm oil derivative products - also produces rubber and sugar cane. Salim Ivomas Pratama is known as the leading producer of cooking oil and margarine.

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The tea industry of Indonesia has been in decline in the last decade. During this decade, the size of Indonesia's tea plantations fell from 150,000 hectares (ha) to 120,000 ha. The country's tea production and tea export slowed, while tea import grew. The lucrative business prospects of palm oil is partly responsible to have caused Indonesia's tea output to stagnate as some tea plantations have been transformed into palm oil plantations. To reverse this situation, the Indonesian government intends to revitalize the country's tea sector.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global rating agencies, affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB- with a stable outlook. In a press release, the rating agency mentioned four key factors that led to the affirmation of the sovereign rating. These are: good policy management by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government amid external pressures, relatively high economic growth, prudent fiscal management (resulting in low public debt), and a strong banking sector (confirmed by multiple stress tests).

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Moody's Investors Service, one of the big credit rating agencies, stated in its 'Credit Analysis: Indonesia' report that - despite the ongoing current account deficit (which is considered to be structural) and a relatively shallow and volatile domestic capital market (which contributes to Indonesia’s reliance on external funding) - the agency is positive about Indonesia's outlook due to its growth prospects, narrow fiscal deficits and low public debt. Indonesian government bonds are rated at Baa3, which is Moody's lowest investment-grade status.

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Indonesia Investments added a preliminary company profile of Timah (TINS), an Indonesian manufacturer and exporter of tin. The company, a state-controlled enterprise (SOE), has an integrated tin mining business ranging from exploration, mining, processing to marketing. The company is one of the largest integrated tin mining companies in the world and accounts for eight percent of total global tin production. Recently, the company has been eager to expand to Myanmar in order to increase production volumes.

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Indonesia Investments has updated the company profile of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations. The company is an Indonesian integrated agribusiness company that engages in oil palm and rubber plantations. It produces palm oil and its derivatives, and processes natural rubber products as well as oleo-chemicals. The company currently manages oil palm and rubber plantations with a total planted area of 122,024 ha, supported by six palm oil processing plants, four natural rubber processing plants and two oleo-chemicals processing facilities.

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The company profile of state-controlled Aneka Tambang (Antam) has been updated in the Indonesian companies' section. Antam is a vertically integrated, export-oriented, diversified mining and metals company in Indonesia. With operations spread throughout the mineral-rich archipelago, Antam undertakes all activities from exploration, exploitation, processing, refining to the marketing of its nickel ore, ferronickel, gold, silver, bauxite, coal and precious metals refining services.

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Palm oil ranks among the most important agricultural commodities of Indonesia as this country is the world’s biggest producer of palm oil. This implies that Indonesia generates important foreign exchange earnings from palm oil exports and is a source of income for millions of workers on the plantations.

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In March 2024 global cocoa prices reached record highs (even temporarily touching above USD $10,000 per ton). Considering Indonesia ranks among the world’s top cocoa bean producers it is certainly worthwhile to take a closer look at this issue.

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If we take a look at Indonesian companies that went public in 2023 (becoming listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, or IDX), we see a couple of companies focused on nickel production, or nickel smelting and refining that made their trading debuts in Indonesia.

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“After the nickel ore ban [imposed in January 2020], we focus on bauxite this year [2022]. And after bauxite, we will go for tin and copper. We have to dare to take these steps!”

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In recent times, commodities have been ‘hot’. The rebound in economic activity after the COVID-19 pandemic (in combination with disrupted supply and logistics chains) started a high commodity price cycle. This cycle that was subsequently strengthened by the Russo-Ukrainian war.

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The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Indonesia's mining and excavation sector has risen drastically over the past year. Moreover, there seems few room for an improvement of the NPL ratio in this sector on the short term because mining and excavation companies are expected to remain amid tough conditions in the remainder of the year. The NPL ratio is a key indicator for measuring bad loans.

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An interesting story was released on Bloomberg Markets Asia on Wednesday (29/03) about the sliding role of commodities in the Indonesian economy and the need for Southeast Asia's largest economy to find a new growth engine (or better: several new growth engines) that will take the country to economic growth levels of +7 percent year-on-year (y/y) as once pledged by Indonesian President Joko Widodo during his presidential campaign in 2014.

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It remains unclear whether Indonesia will revise the export ban that is stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law (Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining) and is supposed to come into effect on 12 January 2017. The 2009 Mining Law stipulates a ban on the export of unprocessed and semi-processed ores from Indonesia. The regulation aims to boost development of the nation's smelting capacity, hence becoming an exporter of materials that are positioned higher up in the value chain while curbing Indonesia's current dependence on exports of raw materials.

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Vale Indonesia, Indonesia's largest nickel producer, is one of those mining companies that has been plagued by low commodity prices. Various securities companies have cut their recommendation for the purchase of Vale Indonesia's shares due to persistently low nickel prices. Net profit of Vale Indonesia is expected to decline by 50 percent (y/y) to USD $26 million in 2016 as the company's average nickel sales price is expected to fall 29.5 percent (y/y) to USD $6,848 per ton this year.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Indonesia's economy to expand 4.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, slightly up from a 4.8 percentage point (y/y) growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015. On Tuesday (15/03) Luis Breuer, IMF Mission Chief for Indonesia, said the Washington-based lender projects limited growth (+0.1 percent) of Indonesia's private consumption this year. Regarding growth of investment and government spending in 2016, the IMF holds a more positive view. On the same day, the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's 2016 GDP growth by 0.2 percent to 5.1 percent.

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