Setelah kecewa melihat pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) yang hanya 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, para investor merasa kuatir dengan pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia pada sisa tahun ini. Pertumbuhan PDB yang lemah disebabkan oleh lemahnya performa ekspor (akibat lambatnya perekonomian global dan rendahnya harga-harga komoditi), tingkat suku bunga Indonesia yang tinggi (mengurangi daya beli masyarakat dan expansi bisnis oleh perusahaan lokal), dan lambatnya belanja pemerintah.

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Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di Q1-2015 dicatat 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Meskipun telah diprediksi bahwa angka pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia akan jatuh di bawah batas 5%, perlambatan ini lebih buruk dari dugaan awal. Suryamin, Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), menyatakan pada awal hari ini (05/05) bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat mencapai level terendah selama lima tahun akibat lemahnya ekspor (hasil dari berkurangnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di pasar ekspor) dan rendahnya harga minyak mentah dunia.

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Two important indicators to measure the condition of an economy are car and cement sales as both statistics provide valuable information about people’s purchasing power (and consumer confidence) as well as infrastructure and property development. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s car and cement sales declined (compared to the same period in the preceding year), triggering concern that economic growth will fall accordingly. In the first quarter of 2014, Indonesia’s GDP growth had already slowed to 5.14 percent (y/y).

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OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), sebuah lembaga internasional yang bekerja sama dengan pemerintah negara-negara untuk memahami faktor-faktor yang mendorong perubahan ekonomi, sosial, dan lingkungan hidup, berpandangan positif mengenai prospek perekonomian di Indonesia. Namun, institusi ini juga menekankan bahwa Indonesia perlu melaksanakan pekerjaan rumahnya dalam rangka mendapatkan keuntungan optimal dari bonus demografi negara dan bergabung dengan kelompok negara berpendapatan menengah ke atas.

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Bank Dunia menerbitkan laporan terbarunya mengenai Perekonomian Indonesia pada tanggal 18 Maret 2015. Dalam laporan yang berjudul 'High Expectations’ ini Bank Dunia memuji perkembangan reformasi awal di beberapa area kunci seperti subsidi bahan bakar minyak dan juga bertambahnya tindakan-tindakan reformasi kunci yang sedang dalam proses. Ini membangkitkan harapan yang tinggi mengenai perekonomian Indonesia pada jangka waktu menengah maupun panjang. Namun, Pemerintah juga menghadapi halangan-halangan untuk menerapkan reformasi struktural lebih lanjut karena prospek pertumbuhan yang menurun.

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The Indonesian government wants to limit investment opportunities in the country’s cement industry in an attempt to maintain a healthy business climate. Indonesian Industry Ministry official Harjanto said that Indonesia’s current cement production capacity is more than enough to meet domestic demand. Given that most established cement producers have expansion plans the influx of new cement producers leads to an oversupply thus reducing companies’ profit margins. The nation’s cement production capacity stands at 77 million tons per year.

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On 8 February 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an analysis of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2014 and a growth projection for 2015, an update on the biodiesel subsidy program, car sales growth in 2015, and much more.

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The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 8,354 trillion (USD $664 billion) in 2014, the nation’s slowest annual growth pace since 2009, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). As such, GDP growth failed to achieve the central government’s 5.5 percentage point growth target that was set in the 2014 State Budget. Indonesia’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011 when it still posted a 6.5 percentage point growth rate (y/y). However, growth is expected to rebound from here.

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Emeritus Professor Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, the former Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs in Megawati Sukarnoputri’s Cabinet (2001-2004), is pessimistic that Indonesia can achieve its 5.8 percent (y/y) economic growth target in 2015. According to Kuntjoro-Jakti, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will feel the impact of the two current global challenges: falling commodity prices (limiting Indonesia’s foreign exchange earnings) and the strong US dollar (triggered by US monetary tightening).

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Indonesia’s central bank decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.75 percent at Thursday’s Board of Governors’ Meeting (11/12). The Lending Facility and Deposit Facility were kept at 8.00 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. The central bank is convinced that the current interest rate levels are effective to combat short-term inflationary pressures (triggered by the implementation of higher subsidized fuel prices in mid-November) pushing it back to the target corridor of between 3 and 4 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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Before we take a look at the latest macroeconomic data from Indonesia, first there is some good news to share as both the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) decided to revise up their projections for the Indonesian economy in 2023.

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As usual, we take a look at a number of macroeconomic indicators to assess the state of the Indonesian economy ahead of the release of Q2-2023 gross domestic product (GDP) data (we expect Indonesia’s Statistical Agency, or BPS, to release the data in the second week of August 2023).

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On 5 May 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released the latest official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of Indonesia. BPS announced that the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.03 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1-2023, a good result that is in line with our expectations.

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The holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan) and the weeklong celebrations that mark the end of the Ramadan (known as Idul Fitri or Lebaran in Indonesia) is important for the Indonesian economy as it is a period when people consume more than usual.

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On 06 February 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released the latest official gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia. The data were in line with expectations.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said she expects to see a sharper economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2023 (Q1-2023) than the 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth that was recorded in the same quarter one year earlier.

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Before turning our attention to the economy of Indonesia, it is important to take a closer look at the global economy first. Fortunately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) just released a new update (called the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2022) and so it’s certainly worthwhile to take a look at its conclusions.

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What came as a surprise to us is that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) decided to raise its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth in full 2022 from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.2 percent (y/y) in July 2022. This decision was substantiated in its Asian Development Outlook 2022 Supplement entitled Recovery Faces Diverse Challenges.

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Despite the ongoing challenges (that mainly originate from abroad), there is reason to be optimistic about Indonesia’s economic growth in 2022 as the COVID-19 threat has eased.

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On 7 February 2022, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the final quarter of 2021.

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