The holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan) is set to start in early June. One month later Indonesia will celebrate Idul Fitri (Lebaran), the celebration that marks the end of the Ramadan month. During Idul Fitri millions of Indonesians will travel back to their places of origin to spend some time with their families, a tradition called mudik. Although the Ramadan is a month characterized by self-control, this month and the subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always cause rising consumption of food products as well as rising consumer spending on clothes, shoes, bags, and other articles.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 6.75 percent at the April policy meeting. This decision was in line with expectations. During the three policy meetings conducted in the January-March 2016 period Bank Indonesia had already cut its BI rate by a combined 75 basis points as inflation and the current account deficit are under control, while the Indonesian rupiah has been strengthening against the US dollar since the start of 2016. Last week, Bank Indonesia announced it will adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo) to replace the existing BI rate as the bank's key monetary tool.

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Indonesia's Gini ratio (or Gini coefficient), which measures the degree of inequality in income distribution, improved slightly in September 2015. According to the latest data published by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the Gini ratio of Indonesia fell from 0.41 in March 2015 to 0.40 in September 2015, indicating that income distribution inequality slightly declined (a coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, while a reading of 1 implies maximal inequality). The modest improvement occurred in the urban areas of Indonesia where the Gini ratio fell 0.1 point to 0.43. In the rural areas the ratio remained stagnant at 0.33.

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Indonesia's plan to  raise people's (annual) non-taxable income by 50 percent to IDR 54 million (approx. USD $4,090) is estimated to add 0.3 percentage point to consumption growth in Indonesia according to Indonesia's Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro. Last week, Brodjonegoro announced this tax incentive with the aim to strengthen Indonesians' purchasing power and encourage household consumption. Household consumption, which accounts for about 56 percent of Indonesia's overall economic growth, has been curtailed in recent years amid slowing economic growth, high inflation and the weak rupiah rate (against the US dollar).

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Due to weaker-than-expected revenue in 2016, the government of Indonesia has to cut government spending by IDR 50.6 trillion (approx. USD $3.8 billion) this year. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro informed that the government is currently in the middle of discussing revisions of the 2016 State Budget (APBN 2016). Weaker-than-expected government revenue is primarily the cause of weaker-than-targeted tax revenue. The government will also revise its inflation, average rupiah rate, and average oil price targets. Despite the expected cut

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On 3 April 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia´s 11th economic policy package, the latest inflation and manufacturing figures, an update on palm oil export, tenders for geothermal power development, fruit export, the fuel price policy, and much more.

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In line with expectations, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia's annual inflation rate only rose modestly in March 2016. The nation's March inflation figure climbed to 4.45 percent year-on-year (y/y) in March from 4.42 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. On a monthly basis, Indonesian inflation accelerated 0.19 percent (m/m) in March. The country's core inflation, which excludes administered and volatile food prices, stood at 3.50 percent, slighly below the average 3.60 percent estimate of analysts.

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Per 1 April 2016 Indonesia's premium gasoline and diesel fuel prices decline by IDR 500 (approx. USD $0.04) per liter. Provided no shocks occur on the international crude oil market, these prices will remain at this level up to 31 September 2016. In January 2015 the Indonesian government scrapped generous subsidies for premium gasoline and capped the subsidy for diesel fuel at IDR 1,000 per liter. Ever since, Indonesian authorities evaluate prices of premium and diesel each quarter and determine prices based on crude oil price movements on the international market.

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In the first three monthly policy meetings this year (January-March) the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut borrowing costs by a total of 75 basis points. Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) was cut from 7.50 percent at the year-start to 6.75 percent at Thursday's Board of Governors' meeting. The overnight deposit facility rate and lending facility rate were also cut by 75 basis points, each, in the first three months. The lower interest rate environment in Indonesia signals that the financial fundamentals are strong. This is partly reason behind strong inflows of foreign capital into Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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The Indonesian rupiah is flirting with the IDR 13,000 per US dollar level on Monday (07/03) supported by improving risk appetite of investors. By 13:40 pm local Jakarta time, the currency of Indonesia had appreciated 0.64 percent to IDR 13,047 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah is now on a 13-day 'winning streak', its longest rally in six years, and is the second-best performing emerging market currency after Brazil's real so far this year. What is behind this good performance, and is it sustainable?

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As expected, Bank Indonesia cut the benchmark interest rate at its monetary policy meeting on 17-18 September 2024. The BI rate was cut by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.00 percent, while also lowering the deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 5.25 percent and 6.75 percent, respectively.

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It is very interesting to take a quick look at the conclusions drawn at the latest US Federal Reserve meeting (held on 30-31 July 2024), as these conclusions have a big impact on global financial markets, including the Indonesian rupiah rate (and even on monetary policy of Indonesia’s central bank, Bank Indonesia).

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Remarkably, the consumer price index of Indonesia showed deflation for the third consecutive month. Based on the latest data from the Statistical Office of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), deflation was recorded at 0.18 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2024.

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Inflation in Indonesia was lower than expected in May 2024. In fact, the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) show a contraction in overall prices (in other words: deflation). With an annual headline inflation rate of 2.84 percent, it means price pressures remain under control in Indonesia.

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While we saw the highest monthly inflation rate (of the year) in December 2023, it was lower than we had projected. The latest data published by Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) show that headline inflation reached 0.41 percent month-on-month (m/m) in December 2023.

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As expected, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to impose a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike after concluding its two-day monetary policy meeting on 16-17 November 2022.

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For me, G20 summits were always interesting occasions as the leaders of the world’s strongest economies gather to discuss plans to move forward. This year, however, it was the first time that I was quite reluctant to follow the summit (despite the 2022 edition being organized on the Indonesian island of Bali).

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As usual, we devote our first article to the Indonesian economy. But before we zoom in on the latest macroeconomic data of Indonesia, we first provide some context by discussing the global economy.

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Before turning our attention to the economy of Indonesia, it is important to take a closer look at the global economy first. Fortunately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) just released a new update (called the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2022) and so it’s certainly worthwhile to take a look at its conclusions.

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In the second half of September 2022 the Indonesian rupiah experienced some steep depreciating pressures, nearly touching IDR 15,300 per US dollar. It prompted Bank Indonesia to step and intervene in markets to limit the currency’s decline; a step that typically leads to a drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

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