Pemerintah Indonesia meneruskan perjuangan mereka untuk meringankan kekuatiran masyarakat tentang dampak dari rupiah yang lemah pada perekonomian Indonesia. Bahkan, Pemerintah menekankan bahwa rupiah yang lemah akan berdampak positif pada neraca perdagangan dan neraca transaksi berjalan karena produk-produk ekspor Indonesia menjadi lebih kompetitif. Selama satu minggu ini, rupiah melemah 1% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Sejak awal 2015, rupiah telah jatuh 4,4% terhadap dollar AS, karenanya menjadi salah satu mata uang di negara-negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk di tahun ini.

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While most Southeast Asian stock markets and emerging Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday (03/03) on the back of a rebounding yen and - contrary to expectation - the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave its cash rate a record low of 2.25 percent, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah performed rather flat. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.06 percent to 5,474.62 points, while the Indonesian rupiah rate appreciated 0.01 percent to IDR 12,969 according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Nilai tukar rupiah - sejalan dengan nilai tukar mata uang negara-negara berkembang lain di Asia - mengalami dampak negatif akibat pemotongan suku bunga di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT). Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, nilai rupiah menurun 0,40% menjadi Rp 12,984 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada pukul 11:10 WIB pada hari Senin (02/03), sangat mendekati batasan yang menguatirkan yaitu Rp 13,000 per dollar AS. Pada hari Sabtu yang lalu (28/02), bank sentral RRT mengumumkan pemotongan suku bunga deposito (1 tahun) dan suku bunga pinjaman (1 tahun) sebanyak 25 point menjadi masing-masing 2,5% dan 3,5%.

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After Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated that the US central bank will be patient in raising the interest rate environment in the world’s largest economy, Indonesian assets gained on Wednesday (25/02). Both the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate strengthened 0.51 percent yesterday. Apart from increased speculation that the Fed will not raise interest rates before summer, expectation that Greece will avoid a disastrous default brought more positive market sentiments.

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Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports rose about 15 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 1.8 million tons in January 2015 from the same month last year. However, on a month-on-month (m/m) basis Indonesian CPO exports fell 8 percent in the first month of 2015. Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director at the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), said that CPO exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy declined in January as demand from nearly all main CPO export markets, particularly China and India, fell at the year-start.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) believes that it is difficult for Indonesia to achieve the government’s target of collecting USD $36 billion by 2019 through crude palm oil (CPO) exports as several government policies disturb the performance of CPO exports. Moreover, global commodity prices (including palm oil) are still showing a downward trend - hence limiting foreign exchange earnings - as global economic growth remains sluggish. Economic growth of China, a major CPO importer, is expected to slow further this year.

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Official data show that in 2014 China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, imported the lowest amount of nickel ore since 2010. Apart from slowing economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy (China’s economic expansion having eased to 7.4 percent year-on-year in 2014), falling nickel ore imports are also caused by Indonesia’s ban on exports of unprocessed minerals (implemented in January 2014) and monsoon rains in the Philippines (limiting production and seaborne trade).

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Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) Agus Martowardojo said that there are two main global challenges that are being faced by Southeast Asia’s largest economy and which can impact negatively on the nation’s economy. These challenges are the low global oil prices (which have fallen below USD $50 per barrel) and the monetary policy normalization of the US Federal Reserve amid the structural economic recovery of the USA. This policy involves higher US interest rates (expected in the second half of 2015) and a bullish US dollar.

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Major chocolate producers recently warned that worldwide economic growth in combination with global population growth will result in a cocoa deficit in a few years hence prices of chocolate are estimated to rise. Especially chocolate consumption in China has risen robustly in recent years. In 2010, the population of China consumed 40,000 tons of chocolate. However, this has now risen by 75 percent to 70,000 tons. Moreover, consumption of dark chocolate, which contains a higher degree of cocoa, has grown in the USA.

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Despite slowing economic growth in China (the world’s second-largest economy), the World Bank forecasts higher economic growth for emerging markets in 2015 driven by a decline in global oil prices, a stronger US economy, and continued low global interest rates. The World Bank expects to see a 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate in emerging markets this year, up from an estimated 4.4 percent (y/y) in 2014. Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to grow 3 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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Over the past couple of months –essentially since touching a low in August 2020– global coal prices have surged. In January 2021 coal prices were at their strongest levels in almost two years (before experiencing a mild correction in February 2021).

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U.S. stock markets continue to hover near record levels as trade policy conversations between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping define the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading just shy of 26,000, which is a psychological level that is often closely-watched by the financial markets.

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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang arrived in Indonesia on Sunday (06/05) for a two-day visit. Part of the visit was a meet up with Indonesian President Joko Widodo (at the Presidential Palace in Bogor) to discuss bilateral trade and investment. Key points on the agenda were the strengthening of trade between both nations and enhanced cooperation on infrastructure development projects in Indonesia, including dams and railways.

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Concerns over a trade war are rising as the European Union (EU) plans to impose a 25 percent retaliatory import tariff on various US products, ranging from clothes to motorcycles, if US President Donald Trump indeed goes ahead with his plan to impose a 25 percent import tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports.

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Several negative sentiments are putting pressure on the crude palm oil (CPO) price in the first week of March 2018. These sentiments are expected to continue pushing downward pressure on the CPO price in the remainder of this week. On Monday (05/03) the CPO price on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (May 2018 shipments) fell 0.28 percent to 2,467 ringgit per metric ton. Compared to one week earlier, the price has now declined 2.91 percent.

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The Consulate General of Indonesia in Guangzhou (China) said Indonesia's coffee exports to China reached USD $34.1 million in the January-September 2017 period, hence Indonesia now ranks second in terms of biggest coffee exporters to China. Vietnam ranks first, by a distance, with a coffee export value of USD $368.8 million in the same period.

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Despite the suicide bombs attack in Jakarta on Wednesday evening (24/05) that killed 3 police officers (and the two militants) at a Jakarta bus station, the Jakarta Composite Index rose after opening on Friday (26/05), while the rupiah only weakened slightly against the US dollar (Thursday was a public holiday). It is yet another example of the fact that markets around the globe have become used to the existence of militant attacks. Particularly a relatively small attack will not lead to any negative sentiments.

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Now the United States - under the Donald Trump administration - are focused on their "America First" policy, China is able to increase its influence in the Asian region. This was apparent at the 30th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on April 26-29 at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City where regional leaders expressed their support for the denuclearization of North Korea but were reluctant to discuss the tensions around the South China Sea.

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As promised US President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an ambitious free trade deal that was signed in October 2015 (after five years of negotiating) and had created the world's largest free trade area (covering 12 countries and 40 percent of global trade). Trump's move to withdraw the USA from the TPP implies that he distances the USA from its Asian allies and gives China the opportunity to fill in the empty space that is left by America.

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Over the past couple of weeks public outcry ensued in Indonesia due to rumors (a hoax) that said there are currently about ten million workers from China in Indonesia, implying these immigrants are (potentially) "stealing" jobs from the local population. Xenophobia and nationalist sentiments are no strangers to Indonesia, a country that faced a long colonial period, and therefore this hoax easily ignited anxiety among (part of) the Indonesian people. But how many foreigners are currently actually working in Indonesia?

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