Persistent weak crude oil prices jeopardize smoothness of Indonesia's biodiesel program as cheap oil - currently trading below USD $30 per barrel - reduces demand for biodiesel and makes the biodiesel industry less economic viable. This year the government of Indonesia plans to launch the B20 biodiesel program (one notch up from the existing B15 program), referring to the requirement to blend a mandatory 20 percent of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME, derived from palm oil) with 80 percent of diesel.

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Dewan Minyak Sawit Indonesia (DMSI) memperkirakan ekspor minyak sawit mentah Indonesia (crude palm oil/CPO) turun 8,7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) menjadi 21 juta ton tahun depan dari estimasi 23 juta ton pada 2015. Penurunan ekspor disebabkan adanya peningkatan konsumsi CPO dalam negeri di tengah implementasi penuh program B15 biodiesel. Konsumsi dalam negeri CPO diperkirakan tumbuh 37% (y/y) dari 8,4 juta ton pada 2015 menjadi 11,5 juta ton pada 2016. Jika program biodiesel B20 akan dilaksanakan, maka ekspor CPO Indonesia bisa semakin menurun.

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While many of Indonesia's coal producers have ceased operations as the production cost margin turned negative, the country's crude palm oil (CPO) producers are still making a profit despite palm oil prices also having weakened sharply in recent years. The Palm Oil Agribusiness Strategic Policy Institute (Paspi) said that production costs for palm oil producers stand in the range of USD $250 to USD $300 per ton, implying that with current CPO prices at around USD $550 per ton, CPO producers still make a reasonable profit.

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Global crude palm oil (CPO) prices may climb up to USD $800 per metric ton in 2016, from USD $575 per ton (FOB) currently, due to the looming implementation of the B20 biodiesel program in Indonesia and curbed CPO output in 2016. Moreover, global oil prices are expected to rise to around USD $60 per barrel in 2016. Higher petroleum prices should boost demand for biodiesel (diesel blended with palm methyl ester, which is subsidized through the Indonesian government's CPO fund program).

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The El Nino-inflicted dry weather in Indonesia and Malaysia, possibly the worst in nearly two decades, is expected to curtail crude palm oil (CPO) output in both countries, implying that palm oil prices can extend their rally into next year. Moreover, Indonesia will consume more CPO as the government will raise the mandatory amount of palm oil blended with diesel from 15 to 20 percent (part of its B20 biofuel program) in early 2016. Since August - when prices were at a six-year low - palm oil futures have surged 26 percent.

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Production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia is estimated to rise to 33 million tons in 2016, roughly 500,000 tons lower than the initial forecast as the El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to impact on agricultural output by causing an extended dry season in Southeast Asia (that will perhaps last beyond December). This year, Indonesia, the global leading CPO producer and exporter, is expected to produce 31.5 million tons. Reduced output in Indonesia may support palm oil prices.

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Pajak ekspor Indonesia untuk pengapalan minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) akan tetap pada 0% di Oktober 2015 karena harga referensi CPO Pemerintah jatuh 13% (month-on-month) menjadi 529,51 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton. Ketika harga referensi CPO ini berada di bawah batasan 750 dollar AS per ton, maka Pemerintah menghapuskan pajak ekspor dalam rangka untuk membuat pembelian minyak sawit Indonesia menjadi lebih menarik. Kendati begitu, para eksportir masih tetap dikenai beacukai ekspor minyak sawit yang baru-baru ini diberlakukan. Ketika pajak ekspor dipotong menjadi 0%, para eksportir diharuskan untuk membayar beacukai senilai 50 dollar AS per ton untuk pengapalan CPO dan 30 dollar AS per ton untuk pengapalan produk-produk minyak sawit olahan (sebagian dari pendapatan ini disalurkan kepada program subsidi biodiesel Indonesia).

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Indonesia’s production of crude palm oil (CPO) is expected to reach 40 million tons in 2020, in line with the government’s national program and downstream CPO roadmap. At the 3rd Indonesia International Palm Oil Processing Machinery & Technology Exhibition, Pranata, Director of Forest and Plantation Industries at the Indonesian Industry Ministry, said that, based on the roadmap, targeted CPO production growth should average 6.8 percent per year up to 2020, so the country will produce 40 million tons by that year.

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After introducing palm oil export levies earlier this month, the Indonesian Finance Ministry announced on Tuesday (28/07) that it has implemented another change in the country’s palm oil industry. From now on, export taxes for crude palm oil (CPO) and other palm oil products will be expressed in US dollar instead of a percentage of the price. Indonesia’s palm oil export tax kicks in when the government’s reference CPO price exceeds USD $750 per metric ton. If the price is below this level, palm oil exporters only need to pay the new export levies.

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Pejabat Pemerintah Indonesia mengumumkan bahwa pungutan ekspor minyak sawit yang baru saja disosialisasikan akan mulai diterapkan pada hari Kamis (16/07). Peraturan baru ini mengharuskan bahwa pungutan sebesar 50 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton diterapkan untuk ekspor minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) dan beacukai senilai 30 dollar AS per metrik ton ditetapkan untuk ekspor produk olahan minyak sawit. Pungutan ekspor minyak sawit ini hanya perlu dibayar oleh para eksportir saat harga referensi CPO dari Pemerintah jatuh di bawah 750 dollar AS per metrik ton, yang secara efektif memotong pajak ekspor minyak sawit menjadi 0%.

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Palm oil ranks among the most important agricultural commodities of Indonesia as this country is the world’s biggest producer of palm oil. This implies that Indonesia generates important foreign exchange earnings from palm oil exports and is a source of income for millions of workers on the plantations.

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Over the past couple of months we have informed on the shortage of cooking oil on the Indonesian market, the subsequent inflationary pressures this shortage caused, and the policies that were imposed by the government to tackle this shortage. But, we did not devote an entire article to this topic.

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Although there is plenty of opposition to – and criticism on – Indonesia for allowing crude palm oil (or CPO) to play a big role in the domestic economy (Indonesia being the world’s largest producer and exporter of CPO), the country is currently feeling the windfall from soaring CPO prices. And, it is contributing to Indonesia’s recovery from the severe – and still ongoing – novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

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Several negative sentiments are putting pressure on the crude palm oil (CPO) price in the first week of March 2018. These sentiments are expected to continue pushing downward pressure on the CPO price in the remainder of this week. On Monday (05/03) the CPO price on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (May 2018 shipments) fell 0.28 percent to 2,467 ringgit per metric ton. Compared to one week earlier, the price has now declined 2.91 percent.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price is expected to strengthen in the first quarter of 2018 due to the impact of the La Nina weather phenomenon and rising CPO demand in the traditional big CPO importing countries. This is good news for stakeholders in the palm oil industry as the price has been sliding around 16 percent so far this year (toward the 2,700 Malaysian ringgit per ton level).

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Indonesia's largest supplier of crude palm oil (CPO), Astra Agro Lestari, is expected to see improving corporate earnings in the years ahead on the back of the rising CPO price and expectation of the company's climbing CPO production volume. The year 2016 was a good year for Astra Agro Lestari as it reported a 224.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) jump in net profit and a 7.6 percent (y/y) increase in sales, led by sales of CPO and derivative products. This was a great recovery from the preceding year. CPO and derivative products account for more than 86 percent of the company's total sales.

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The higher crude palm oil (CPO) price will have a positive impact on the corporate earnings of Indonesian CPO producers, including Sampoerna Agro. Benchmark palm oil futures for March 2017 delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were at 3,161 ringgit (approx. USD $706) per ton at the end of last week, near a four and a half year high. However, not all analysts advise investors to purchase shares of Sampoerna Agro, a company that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price touched its highest level so far this year. On Tuesday (20/09) palm oil futures (December delivery) - traded on the Kuala Lumpur exchange - ended the day at 2,690 ringgit (approx. USD $651 per metric ton). Palm oil prices are rising as CPO production in Indonesia and Malaysia will remain subdued this year due to droughts that were brought by the El Nino weather phenomenon earlier in 2016, while there is expectation of a rather wet season later this year due to the La Nina weather phenomenon.

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Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) exports rose 9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to 2.29 million tons in February 2016 on the back of growing CPO demand in Africa, Bangladesh, India and the European Union. Indonesia's February CPO export volume was better than estimated previously. Analysts had expected a figure below 2 million tons. Combined, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 4.39 million tons in the first two months of 2016, up 22 percent (y/y) from the 3.59 million tons of CPO that Indonesia exported in the same period one year earlier.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon (that brought a prolonged dry season to Southeast Asia). CPO production in Malaysia could fall between 1.5 and 2 million tons this year according to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International. Declining output in the world's two leading palm oil producers and exporters implies that palm oil prices should be able to rise further. At the start of this week palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (June delivery) rose to 2,779 ringgit (approx. USD $695) per ton, the highest level since March 2014.

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