Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued to expand in June 2018 albeit at a lower level compared to the preceding month. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined from a reading of 51.7 in May to 50.3 in June (slightly above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector). Slower rises in both output and new orders were key reasons that explain the month-on-month decline.

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Indonesia's manufacturing sector has seen its contribution to overall Indonesian macroeconomic growth sliding over the past two decades. The cause is the lack of new and innovative products in this sector. This is the conclusion of Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Center for International Development and a Professor of the Practice of Economic Development at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

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Over the past decades, Indonesia's manufacturing industry has developed from a significant growth engine (for the whole economy) into a less significant one. Prior to the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998, non-oil & gas manufacturing accounted for 30 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Today, however, the figure is around 18 percent. If we add the oil & gas industry, then the figure rises only slightly to 19.9 percent.

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Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued to expand in September 2017, albeit at a slower pace compared to the preceding month. Based on the new Nikkei survey, released on Monday (02/10), Indonesia's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was recorded at 50.4 points, down from 50.7 in August (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion in the country's manufacturing activity).

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Rising output and stronger export orders caused a modest recovery in Indonesia's manufacturing sector in August 2017. Indonesia's Nikkei-Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to a reading of 50.7 in August, from 48.6 in July (50.0 separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing industry).

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Growth of manufacturing activity in Indonesia eased in May 2017. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 50.6 in May from a reading of 51.2 in the preceding month. Last month manufacturing activity in Indonesia had hit a 10-month high, hence the lower reading indicates a loss of growth momentum for Indonesia's manufacturing sector. However, it remained comfortably above the boom-or-bust line of 50.0 that separates expansion from contraction.

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Good news for Indonesian manufacturers. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded a second consecutive month of growth, touching a 10-month high of 51.2 in April 2017 (from a reading of 50.5 in the preceding month), as further expansion in order books encouraged local companies to boost production, while the relatively weaker rupiah rate (versus the US dollar) exerted upward pressure on input prices, with cost inflation reaching an 18-month peak. Subsequently, output prices rose at an accelerated pace.

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Amid falling output and declining new orders as well as sharply rising input costs, Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted again in February 2017. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a reading of 49.3 in February, sliding from 50.4 in the preceding month (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50.0 points at expansion of the manufacturing sector). Meanwhile, buying levels remained unchanged.

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Indonesia's manufacturing sector is targeted to provide employment to a total of 16.3 million workers in 2017, up 5 percent from 15.5 million workers in the preceding year. As such, development of the manufacturing industry is a good strategy to reduce Indonesia's unemployment rate. Industries within the manufacturing sector of Indonesia that absorb the highest number of workers are the textile, footwear, food & beverage, and automotive industries.

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Indonesia's manufacturing activity improved in the first month of 2017. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to a reading of 50.4 in January 2017, from a reading of 49.0 in the preceding month supported by a slight increase in order books (a reading above 50 signals expansion of the nation's manufacturing industry, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction). The latest data end a three-month contraction streak in Indonesia's manufacturing sector.

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The manufacturing sector is a strategic one for the Indonesian economy (albeit it is facing a number of major challenges). The Indonesian government therefore has high hopes and ambitions for the national manufacturing sector.

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Over the past five decades the Indonesian economy has evolved from one being highly dependent on agriculture to one in which industry and services dominate the national economy.

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After the surprise in February 2020 (when – contrary to expectations and in stark contrast to the global trend – manufacturing activity in Indonesia soared), matters turned normal in March 2020. In line with expectations, Indonesia’s manufacturing production and new orders contracted at record rates in March, making companies decide to cut back sharply on their purchasing activity and input inventories. Business conditions in fact deteriorated at a rate not seen before in the history of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey.

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An alarming report was released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 1 October 2019. In the report the WTO notes that ongoing global trade tensions, led by tariff troubles between the United States and China, are doing harm to global economic growth in ways not seen since the financial crisis one decade ago.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia increased in June 2019 albeit at a much slower pace than in the preceding month. Expansion in the nation’s manufacturing sector was dragged down by softer expansion in both production and new orders.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia improved in May 2019 due to an increase in output and new orders. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50.4 in April 2019 to 51.6 in the following month, its highest position in nine months (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity).

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Based on the latest data from IHS Markit, the headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell modestly to a reading of 50.5 in October 2018 (from 50.7 in the preceding month). The reading represents a marginal improvement in the health of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia expanded in September 2018. However, the pace of growth slowed compared to the preceding month. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined from August's 26-month high of 51.9 to 50.7 in September (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector).

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Rising domestic demand caused Indonesia's August manufacturing activity to grow at the fastest pace in more than two years. As a result local manufacturing companies added new people to their staff. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to 51.9 in August 2018 (up from 50.5 in the preceding month), further above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction in terms of manufacturing activity.

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Although manufacturing activity in Indonesia rose slightly in July 2018, there are a number of reasons to be concerned. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indeed grew modestly from a reading of 50.3 in June to 50.5 in July (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion in the nation's manufacturing activity). However, overall conditions remain lacklustre in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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