According to Indonesia’s state news agency Antara, the United States (US) have become the largest export destination for Indonesian batik. Approximately 37 percent of Indonesia’s total batik export is shipped to the US, the world’s largest economy. Batik is a traditional textile produced by using a technique of wax-resist dyeing applied to cloth. Although several other countries also produce batik, the most well-known batik originates from the island of Java (batik was recognized as a World Cultural Heritage by the UNESCO in 2009).

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Karena nilai rupiah Indonesia terus melemah pada hari Kamis (04/06), hampir menyentuh tingkat terendah selama 17 tahun, seorang pejabat bank sentral mencoba meringankan kekuatiran dengan menyatakan bahwa Bank Indonesia selalu ada di di pasar forex dan obligasi untuk memonitor pergerakan dan meringankan volatilitas. Pada hari Kamis pagi, bond yield, yang telah meningkat sejak Jumat (29/05), pada 8,198%. Berdasarkan Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah telah melemah 0,11% menjadi Rp 13.245 pada pukul 11:10 WIB.

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Nilai saham Indonesia dan rupiah menguat pada hari perdagangan terakhir karena didukung oleh kenaikan sedang dari sejumlah indeks di Wall Street pada hari Kamis (07/05), yang sangat kontras dengan penjualan besar-besaran yang terjadi sehari sebelumnya setelah pimpinan Federal Reserve Janet Yellen menyatakan bahwa harga saham-saham Amerika Serikat (AS) mungkin dihargaii secara berlebihan. Sementara itu, data perdagangan yang lemah dari Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) mungkin akan mendorong para pembuat kebijakan RRT untuk menyediakan lebih banyak stimulus. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan naik 0,62% menjadi 5.182,21 poin pada hari Jumat (08/05).

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Despite slowing economic growth in China (the world’s second-largest economy), the World Bank forecasts higher economic growth for emerging markets in 2015 driven by a decline in global oil prices, a stronger US economy, and continued low global interest rates. The World Bank expects to see a 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate in emerging markets this year, up from an estimated 4.4 percent (y/y) in 2014. Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to grow 3 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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In its latest report entitled ‘Growth Hesitates in Developing Asia’ (which is a supplement to the ‘Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update’), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) slightly downgraded economic growth in developing Asia to 6.1 percent (y/y) in 2014 from its September estimate of 6.2 percent (y/y). Despite slowing momentum the ADB believes that current low oil prices constitute a great opportunity for Asian countries to conduct structural reforms as many of these countries are net oil importers.

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Exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and CPO derived products from Indonesia in the first nine months of 2014 only reached 15 million tons, down 1.75 percent from the same period last year. The main cause for this disappointing performance is slowing economic growth in China and India resulting in reduced palm oil demand from these two giant economies. As a result of weak global demand, the CPO price has fallen to an average price of USD $712 per ton in September 2014, down 5.4 percent from the previous month.

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Despite some concern about inflation, the US Federal Reserve stated that it will keep interest rates close to zero. The central bank announced this after the two-day policy meeting (Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC). Ahead of the meeting, market participants had increasingly speculated about the chance of sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes as US economic data has generally been positive (including 4.2 percent GDP growth in the second quarter and weekly jobless claims that declined to near record lows).

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Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 1.26 percent to IDR 11,971 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (15/09). Indonesia’s currency depreciated sharply ahead of the FOMC’s two-day meeting as investors are awaiting for the results on Thursday. As August US retail sales rose at the fastest pace in four months, a winding down of the US bond-buying program and looming US interest rates have resulted in a strong US dollar.

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The Agriculture Ministry of Indonesia expects that domestic production of palm oil in 2014 will decline 10 percent (roughly two million tons) from last year due to the possible impact of the El Niño weather cycle in the second half of this year. El Niño is a weather phenomenon that occurs once every 5 years on average and involves periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America. This can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean, impacting on the global commodities market.

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I have been living in Indonesia for more than eight years (and before permanently moving to this beautiful country I had been visiting Indonesia frequently since late- 1998). But although I’m currently far away from the West, I’ve never been following Western politics and Western media closer than I am doing now - and with Western politics I mainly refer to the political and (interrelated) social developments in the European Union (EU) and the United States (US).

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Contrary to our usual coverage, in this edition of the monthly Indonesia Investments’ report there is some emphasis on political and socioeconomic developments in the West (referring to the United States and the European Union). The main reason for this is that the West – and we have seen this throughout history (for example during colonial days) – has a huge influence on the rest of the world, including Indonesia.

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As stock markets continue to trade near precarious highs and an underlying current of geopolitical uncertainty continues to limit the outlook for equities in 2019, it is not entirely surprising to see going prices rallying. Indeed, this has been our price forecast for several weeks. But the confirmation of these forecasts came as the result of new evidence indicating weakness in US labor markets and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to reduce interest rates more than previously anticipated. 

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U.S. stock markets continue to hover near record levels as trade policy conversations between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping define the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading just shy of 26,000, which is a psychological level that is often closely-watched by the financial markets.

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Across the world, leaders express criticism on US President Donald Trump's decision to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital city of Israel. Moreover, Trump announced that the American embassy is to be relocated from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. While Trump claims that these decisions constitute a step to advance the peace process and emphasizes that the US will continue to facilitate the peace process between both sides, fierce criticism unleashed following Trump's statements.

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Now the United States - under the Donald Trump administration - are focused on their "America First" policy, China is able to increase its influence in the Asian region. This was apparent at the 30th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on April 26-29 at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City where regional leaders expressed their support for the denuclearization of North Korea but were reluctant to discuss the tensions around the South China Sea.

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The Indonesian government is currently studying the opportunities and challenges with regard to the making of a new bilateral trade deal with the USA. These efforts are a side-effect of US Vice President Mike Pence's recent visit to Indonesia when he signed 11 trade and investment deals worth a combined USD $10 billion.

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Mike Pence, the Vice President of the United States, visited Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Thursday morning (20/04) at the presidential palace in Jakarta as part of Pence's Asia-Pacific tour (15-25 April 2017). Main goals of Pence's visit to several Asia-Pacific nations are to enhance diplomatic relations, improve regional security cooperation, and seek fairer trade. Pence arrived in Jakarta on Wednesday evening, directly from Japan where he emphasized US commitment to rein in North Korea's nuclear and missile ambitions.

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As promised US President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an ambitious free trade deal that was signed in October 2015 (after five years of negotiating) and had created the world's largest free trade area (covering 12 countries and 40 percent of global trade). Trump's move to withdraw the USA from the TPP implies that he distances the USA from its Asian allies and gives China the opportunity to fill in the empty space that is left by America.

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Indonesia has always been hesitant to join free-trade deals with other nations on fears that domestic industries cannot compete with foreign counterparts, which could lead to an influx of cheaper, yet higher-quality foreign products. During his visit to the White House, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said Indonesia intends to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Back home, this statement led to concern. What are the negative consequences for Indonesia when joining this deal?

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