There will not be a rebound in the coal industry anytime soon. Indonesia, one of the world's leading (thermal) coal producers and exporters, says the nation's coal output will continue to decline in 2016 and 2017. This continued decline in production is caused by the decision of smaller miners to cease production amid the globe's low coal prices that touched a decade-low earlier this year. There should occur a positive side-effect, however, if miners indeed cut their output and that is upward support for coal prices.

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Australia-based BHP Billiton, the multinational firm engaged in copper, iron, gold, and coal mining, is reportedly considering to stop operations at its Indonesian coal mining sites - or even to sell these assets - due to the unattractive outlook for the global coal price. Through a 75 percent stake in IndoMet Coal, BHP Billiton holds seven (long-standing) Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) in Central Kalimantan. The company is now conducting a strategic review of all its business operations (including the Indonesian assets) to determine which direction to take.

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The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects the coal price to remain stable around USD $50 per ton in the remainder of 2016. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (harga batubara acuan, abbreviated HBA), which is set (on a monthly basis) by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, rose 1.4 percent (m/m) to USD $52.32 per ton in April 2016. Since February the HBA has been climbing in three consecutive months. The last time Indonesia's benchmark coal price recorded a three-month gaining streak was in the October-December 2013 period.

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The world's number one privately-owned coal producer, US-based Peabody Energy Corp, filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday (13/04) after its debt burden became too high amid recent expansion efforts, a cancelled asset sale, and slumping coal prices. All of the miner's offices and mines will continue operations as usual during the bankruptcy process. The case of Peabody Energy is one of the world's largest ever bankruptcy cases in the commodities sector. Trading of Peabody Energy's shares has been suspended immediately.

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Having been the center of negative attention for quite some years now, Indonesia's coal mining sector has given some room for speculation that conditions will improve. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and mostly based on the average of global coal prices, rose 1.3 percent (m/m) to USD $51.62 per ton in March 2016. Although it is much too early to start speculating about a sustained rebound, the increase is remarkable as it is the first time in exactly one year that the HBA manages to rise.

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The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) advises the central government to recalculate the amount of coal required for Indonesia's 35,000 MW power plant program. According to APBI, Indonesia does not have enough coal reserves to serve as power source for this ambitious program. The program, launched by President Joko Widodo in 2015, aims to add a total of 35,000 MW to the nation's power capacity by 2019 (about 20,000 MW being coal-fired plants). PriceWaterhouseCoopers states that Indonesia may have depleted its coal reserves by the year 2033.

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While global coal prices continue to slide, there emerged some support as Indonesia is estimated to consume more coal in 2016 in its coal-fired power plants. According to Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, domestic consumption of coal will rise 7.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 86 million tons in 2016 from 79.8 million tons in 2015. The ministry set the domestic market obligation (DMO), the minimum amount of coal that Indonesia's coal producers need to supply to the local market, at 86 million tons. The DMO is set to ensure sufficient power generation in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Trouble for Indonesian coal miners will not end soon as India - one of the world's leading coal consumers - is eager to boost domestic production of coal thus reducing the need for coal imports. This has given additional downward pressure on global coal prices. Over the past 11 months Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly reference price set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, has been on a streak of continuously falling prices. The February 2016 rate was set at USD $50.92 per ton, a far cry from USD $111.58 per ton in February 2012.

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There remains little hope to see rebounding coal prices soon. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly price set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, fell another 4.29 percent month-to-month (m/m) to a new record low of USD $50.92 per metric ton (FOB) in February 2016 from USD $53.20 in the preceding month. Coal prices have difficulty to rise amid low crude oil and gas prices, while renewable energy sources are gaining popularity. Meanwhile, demand from China and India for Indonesian coal is falling.

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As the coal mining industry will not rebound anytime soon, Adaro Energy, the second-largest producer of thermal coal in Indonesia, has to find another strategy to make a profitable business. Income coal sales has weakened but the company's mining services and logistics segments have been growing. Meanwhile, the company has been expanding to the downstream power generation industry. Not coal, but power generation may be the center of a new super-cycle in Indonesia as the government aims to see the construction of 35,000 megawatts (MW) of power plants in the next five years.

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Currently, coal certainly ranks among the most interesting commodities. On the one hand, Indonesia expressed its commitment to reduce consumption of this dirty fossil fuel (that is especially used as raw material for the generation of electricity in power plants but also in various manufacturing industries such as the cement industry and textile industry) as the country seeks to become ‘carbon neutral’ by 2060 (although many doubt to what extent Indonesia is really committed to this ambition; after all, it has more immediate concerns such as the dozens of millions of Indonesians living below, and just above, the national poverty threshold).

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Over the past couple of months –essentially since touching a low in August 2020– global coal prices have surged. In January 2021 coal prices were at their strongest levels in almost two years (before experiencing a mild correction in February 2021).

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By revising Indonesian Government Regulation No. 23/2010, the Indonesian government plans to provide local coal miners more certainty by allowing an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders in the mining sector argue that this would considerably strengthen the nation’s investment climate, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.

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Only a few months after the Indonesian government had imposed a price cap on mandatory sales of local coal to Indonesia's state-owned electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) under the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme, the government now plans to revise this regulation. Coming Tuesday (31/07) a high-level meeting is to take place where decisions will be taken.

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Through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 19/2018 on the Procedures for Determining Benchmark Prices of Metal and Coal Sales as well as through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 1395 K/30/MEM/2018 on the Selling Price of Coal for the Electricity Supply for the Public Interest the Indonesian government confirmed a new set of rules in the coal mining sector, specifically regarding coal that is sold domestically under the domestic market obligation.

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The big Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange expect to raise their production volumes in 2018 amid rising global demand and the subsequent stronger coal price. Moreover, most local coal companies were heavily affected by bad weather in 2017 and therefore their output had been curtailed naturally, while coal prices had actually been skyrocketing since mid-2016.

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Amid rising mining commodity prices, Indonesian coal mining company Adaro Energy saw its share price surge at the start of 2018. The mining index is actually the best-performing index so far this year in Indonesia, rising 13.58 percent since the start of the year. Being a mining company - or more precisely an energy company (as it recently entered the power generation sector) - Adaro Energy is among the major beneficiaries.

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The sharply rallying coal price in the second half of 2016 and its strong cash position (a sign of financial strength and liquidity) is the right recipe for listed Indonesian coal miner Harum Energy to post strong corporate earnings this year. In fact, Indonesian securities company Trimegah Securities believes that Harum Energy is the coal miner that will benefit the most of all listed coal miners on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) because 95 percent of its coal sales is sold on the spot market.

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Indonesia's November 2016 coal price broke a record. The nation's benchmark thermal coal price (locally known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - jumped 22.9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton this month, the highest monthly HBA price rise ever recorded. Compared to the start of the year, Indonesia's coal price has now risen 59.6 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain. But is this reason for euphoria?

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Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

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