Pendapatan perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batubara yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) secara umum menurun pada 2014. Ini menjadi bukti bahwa industri batubara, yang merupakan bisnis yang menguntungkan pada tahun 2000an (hingga 2011), masih mengalami perlambatan karena masalah-masalah ekonomi global. Ekonomi global yang bergerak lambat menyebabkan permintaan yang rendah bagi komoditi-komoditi seperti batubara dan minyak sawit mentah (dua penghasil devisa penting di Indonesia). Perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) khususnya mengkhawatirkan.

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Ada berita buruk bagi perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batu bara di Indonesia. Pemerintah Indonesia berencana untuk menaikkan royalti batubara pada Maret 2015 dalam upaya untuk meningkatkan pendapatan dari sektor sumberdaya alam. Selain menaikkan royalti, Pemerintah juga akan melaksanakan sejumlah tindakan untuk meningkatkan pengawasan di sektor pertambangan batu bara (karena pengapalan batubara secara ilegal dan penghindaran pajak telah menjadi masalah besar). Rencana untuk meningkatkan hampir 100% royalti batubara diduga akan memberikan dampak sangat negatif bagi para penambang kecil dan perusahaan-perusahaan baru yang berfokus memproduksi batubara kalori rendah.

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Bob Kamandanu, Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), advises the government of Indonesia to cut the country’s coal production by about 50 million tons and cap coal exports at 300 million tons in 2015 in an effort to boost global coal prices which are currently touching an eight-year low amid the sluggish global economy (particularly weakening coal demand from China) in combination with a coal oversupply. Indonesia is the world’s leading exporter of thermal coal which is primarily used in electricity generation.

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Indonesian coal exports seem not affected by the new licensing system - the ‘Listed Exporter’ status (Indonesian: Eksportir Terdaftar, ET) - that was implemented on 1 October 2014. Previously, it was feared that coal exports could plunge up to 20 percent in October as the new licensing system led to confusion. Various Indonesian mining companies said that they had difficulty to secure the new export permits. According to government data, Indonesian coal exports reached 31.4 million tons, up 22.2 percent from the previous month.

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Coal exports from Indonesia are expected to decline in the remainder of 2014 as the Indonesian government implemented a new licensing system for domestic coal miners - the ‘Listed Exporter’ status (Indonesian: Eksportir Terdaftar, ET) - per 1 October 2014 in an effort to optimize monitoring of the coal mining industry (illegal coal shipments from Indonesia form a structural problem). This new legal framework has led to confusion among miners causing that not all miners have been able to obtain the necessary status to resume coal shipments.

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R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, stated that the country is plagued by structural illegal coal shipments from coal-rich regions in Kalimantan and Sumatra. Sukhyar estimates that each year between 30 and 40 million tons of coal is exported illegally from Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Based on current coal prices, this would imply that USD $1.2 billion worth of coal is shipped illegally per year causing the government to miss out on royalties.

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The Indonesian government cannot inform yet about the exact impact of the recently introduced ‘Listed Exporter’ status (Indonesian: Eksportir Terdaftar, ET) on Indonesian coal exports. In the first three quarters of 2014, Indonesia exported a total of 234.8 million tons of coal. The government targets to produce between 390 and 420 million tons of coal this year (of which 90 million tons are required to be absorbed by the domestic market). However, newly introduced rules in the coal industry have led to confusion and may limit coal exports.

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Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that in the period January-August 2014 Indonesian coal production reached 280 million tons and coal exports 224 million tons. Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources R. Sukhyar added that miners that hold Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) account for 80 percent of total domestic coal production, while Mining Business Permit (IUP) holders account for the remainder. The Ministry targets total coal production to reach between 390 and 420 million tons in 2014.

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Indonesian coal production reached 213 million tons in the first half of 2014, a 7.6 percentage point growth from the same period in the previous year (198 million tons), as coal miners have been boosting coal output amid sluggish international coal prices. Approximately 75 percent of this output (158 million tons) was exported abroad. Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal producer and exporter. The country’s coal primarily consists of the medium-quality type (between 5100 and 6100 cal/gram) and the low-quality type (below 5100 cal/gram).

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An official at Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the production of coal in the first four months of 2014 grew five percent (year-on-year) to 147 million tons. As such, the country is still on track to meet this year's coal production target of 426 million tons. Exports of Indonesian coal totaled 109 million tons in the January-April 2014 period, while the remainder (38 million tons) was sold on the domestic market. Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of coal.

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As is widely known, coal is the most important energy source for the generation of electricity in Indonesia. Among the key reasons are that Indonesia has huge reserves of coal under its soils (hence it is relatively cheap to use coal, hence attracting plenty of private investment amid ever-growing electricity consumption in Indonesia over the past two decades) and efficient coal-fired power plant technology.

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Over the past couple of months –essentially since touching a low in August 2020– global coal prices have surged. In January 2021 coal prices were at their strongest levels in almost two years (before experiencing a mild correction in February 2021).

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By revising Indonesian Government Regulation No. 23/2010, the Indonesian government plans to provide local coal miners more certainty by allowing an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders in the mining sector argue that this would considerably strengthen the nation’s investment climate, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.

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The big Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange expect to raise their production volumes in 2018 amid rising global demand and the subsequent stronger coal price. Moreover, most local coal companies were heavily affected by bad weather in 2017 and therefore their output had been curtailed naturally, while coal prices had actually been skyrocketing since mid-2016.

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A number of listed coal mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are eager to raise production capacity amid attractive coal prices. One way to boost production capacity is through the acquisition of other coal miners. Indonesia's key thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - the monthly benchmark price that is set by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry - rose slightly to USD $94.80 per metric ton in November 2017.

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Indonesia's November 2016 coal price broke a record. The nation's benchmark thermal coal price (locally known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - jumped 22.9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton this month, the highest monthly HBA price rise ever recorded. Compared to the start of the year, Indonesia's coal price has now risen 59.6 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain. But is this reason for euphoria?

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Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

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Coal production in Indonesia fell 15.4 percent to 263 million tons in the first eight months of 2015 (from 311 million tons in the same period last year) as Indonesian coal miners cut production due to low global coal demand. Last week it was reported that Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s coal exports fell 18 percent to 211 million tons (y/y) in the January-August period.

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In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.

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The government of Indonesia is eager to use current low coal prices as the context to push for consolidation in the country’s coal mining sector. Sudirman Said, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, announced that the government may revoke over 4,000 troubled mining licenses this month and install a better licensing system. Licenses that may be revoked are Mining Business Permits (IUPs), not the long-standing Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) that are held by companies such as Bumi Resources and Berau Coal Energy.

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