Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports may have increased 3.4 percent (month-to-month) to 1.85 million metric tons in April 2014 according to the median forecast of five analysts and traders compiled by Bloomberg. Exports are forecast to increase as buyers boost purchases ahead of the holy Muslim fasting month Ramadan in June and Idul Fitri celebrations. These festivities always trigger increased demand for palm oil. If this projection is accurate, it would imply that Indonesian CPO exports in April are the highest since December 2013.

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Demand for Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) - both global and domestic demand - surged, giving rise to impressive corporate earnings reports of Indonesian palm oil producers in the first quarter of 2014. Combined, net profit of plantation companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, rose 116 percent. Indonesia's plantation sector is dominated by production of crude palm oil products and derivatives. Because of increased global demand, the value of Indonesian CPO exports is expected to rise to USD $22-24 billion.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) stated that exports of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives have increased 13 percent to 1.79 million tons in March 2014 from 1.58 million tons in the previous month. The increase was particularly due to a surge in the price of soybeans since February which makes importers shift their focus to CPO and its derivatives as a substitute for soybeans. Moreover, CPO prices have risen due to speculation about the looming El Niño cycle and declining stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia.

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So far, the year 2014 is marked by adjustments in forecasts for commodities demand and prices on the global market. The primary example is coffee. Due to severe drought in Brazil, weak coffee production is expected to result in a shortage of coffee on the international market. Uncertainty about the extent of the shortage has pushed coffee prices up by about 65 percent since the end of 2013. Meanwhile, Brazil's reduced arabica output cannot be replaced by Indonesia's robusta coffee due to high rainfall in the archipelago.

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Export of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) as well as derived products is expected to reach 22 million tons in 2014. As this year's CPO price is expected to average USD $1000 per ton, significantly higher than the average of USD $850 per ton in 2013, it will translate into higher revenue from the country's palm oil sector. The value of Indonesian CPO export in 2014 is estimated to accelerate to USD $22 billion due to dry weather threatening crops in Indonesia and Malaysia. Indonesia is the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil.

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Sawit Sumbermas Sarana (SSMS), a palm oil plantation company that conducted its initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Thursday (12/12), aims for a 15 percent growth (yoy) in net profit in 2014 to IDR 207 billion (USD $17.3 million) as the price of crude palm oil (CPO) is expected to improve. The company's listing on the stock exchange (IDX) was a success, rising almost 12 percent on its debut, supported by foreign enthusiasm. Foreign institutional investors bought 81 percent of the stocks that were issued.

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Indonesia Investments has updated the company profile of Bakrie Sumatera Plantations. The company is an Indonesian integrated agribusiness company that engages in oil palm and rubber plantations. It produces palm oil and its derivatives, and processes natural rubber products as well as oleo-chemicals. The company currently manages oil palm and rubber plantations with a total planted area of 122,024 ha, supported by six palm oil processing plants, four natural rubber processing plants and two oleo-chemicals processing facilities.

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Business players within Indonesia's palm oil sector have expressed concern about a recently introduced law that stipulates limits to plantations sizes, including oil palm plantations. The government of Indonesia issued law Permentan No 98/Permentan/OT.140/9/2013 that sets maximum boundaries to the surface area of eleven commodities. The palm oil industry of Indonesia now argues that targets mentioned in the country's palm oil roadmap cannot be met. For example, the production target of 40 million tons of palm oil by 2020 is in jeopardy.

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Indonesia's palm oil exports (palm oil and palm kernel) rose by 9.1 percent (month-on-month) to 2.04 million metric tons in February, according to data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki). This level - the highest in about five years - was brought on due to increased purchases from China and Pakistan. Indonesia's palm oil industry may experience a better year in 2013 as exports in the first two months of 2013 rose 29 percent from last year.

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Palm oil ranks among the most important agricultural commodities of Indonesia as this country is the world’s biggest producer of palm oil. This implies that Indonesia generates important foreign exchange earnings from palm oil exports and is a source of income for millions of workers on the plantations.

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Over the past couple of months we have informed on the shortage of cooking oil on the Indonesian market, the subsequent inflationary pressures this shortage caused, and the policies that were imposed by the government to tackle this shortage. But, we did not devote an entire article to this topic.

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Although there is plenty of opposition to – and criticism on – Indonesia for allowing crude palm oil (or CPO) to play a big role in the domestic economy (Indonesia being the world’s largest producer and exporter of CPO), the country is currently feeling the windfall from soaring CPO prices. And, it is contributing to Indonesia’s recovery from the severe – and still ongoing – novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

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The Indonesian government is eager to boost domestic crude palm oil (CPO) production, but not at the expense of tropical forest (by adding new oil palm plantations). Instead, a new government program aims to replant 20,000 hectares of smallholder palm oil plantations in 2017 under the condition that farmers meet the requirements that are stipulated by Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) certification.

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The higher crude palm oil (CPO) price will have a positive impact on the corporate earnings of Indonesian CPO producers, including Sampoerna Agro. Benchmark palm oil futures for March 2017 delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were at 3,161 ringgit (approx. USD $706) per ton at the end of last week, near a four and a half year high. However, not all analysts advise investors to purchase shares of Sampoerna Agro, a company that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

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Indonesia's Industry Ministry selected the industrial estate in Berau (East Kalimantan) as the center for the downstream palm oil industry in Kalimantan. Furthermore, Panggah Susanto, the Industry Ministry's Director General for Agriculture industry, said the government proposes to select Berau as one of the palm oil centers within the Palm Oil Green Economic Zone (POGEZ) scheme. Berau is chosen to replace Bontang because the former has 3,400 hectares of (clear and clean) industrial land available, while land in Bontang still falls under "protected forest" status.

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Expectation of rising fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and crude palm oil (CPO) volumes in the second half of the year should boost the corporate earnings of Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading agribusiness companies. Meanwhile, sentiments related to the La Nina weather phenomenon and rising CPO demand on the back of the Indonesian government's biodiesel program should support CPO prices. Astra Agro Lestari is the plantation unit of diversified conglomerate Astra International.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo has ordered the nation's Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya to issue a moratorium on new palm oil concessions in a number of provinces. Although Widodo wants Indonesia - the world's top producer and exporter of crude palm oil (CPO) - to raise CPO output, he believes this increase can be achieved by increasing productivity of existing palm oil plantations, not by adding new plantations. Indonesia is often criticized by environmentalist groups for its forestry policies and poor law enforcement (which led to the severe haze that spread through Southeast Asia last year).

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Crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon (that brought a prolonged dry season to Southeast Asia). CPO production in Malaysia could fall between 1.5 and 2 million tons this year according to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International. Declining output in the world's two leading palm oil producers and exporters implies that palm oil prices should be able to rise further. At the start of this week palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (June delivery) rose to 2,779 ringgit (approx. USD $695) per ton, the highest level since March 2014.

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Agribusiness company Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading crude palm oil (CPO) producers, is expected to show a better performance in 2016 on an expected rise in palm oil prices. Although palm oil futures currently feel the negative effects of tumbling global crude oil prices, these futures are estimated to have risen to about 2,700 ringgit per ton by May 2016 from around 2,385 (approx. USD $540)  per ton currently.

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