There will not be a rebound in the coal industry anytime soon. Indonesia, one of the world's leading (thermal) coal producers and exporters, says the nation's coal output will continue to decline in 2016 and 2017. This continued decline in production is caused by the decision of smaller miners to cease production amid the globe's low coal prices that touched a decade-low earlier this year. There should occur a positive side-effect, however, if miners indeed cut their output and that is upward support for coal prices.

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On 24 April 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economic matters such as Joko Widodo's visit to Europe, the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia, Indonesia's Gini ratio, the palm oil and coal sectors, foreign ownership of property in Indonesia, the problems surrounding infrastructure spending in Indonesia, and more.

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Australia-based BHP Billiton, the multinational firm engaged in copper, iron, gold, and coal mining, is reportedly considering to stop operations at its Indonesian coal mining sites - or even to sell these assets - due to the unattractive outlook for the global coal price. Through a 75 percent stake in IndoMet Coal, BHP Billiton holds seven (long-standing) Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) in Central Kalimantan. The company is now conducting a strategic review of all its business operations (including the Indonesian assets) to determine which direction to take.

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Coal shipments between Indonesia and the Philippines are disrupted by the recent series of incidents that occurred in the seas off the coast of the southern Philippines. Two Indonesian coal ports are now (temporarily) disallowing Indonesian ships from transporting coal to the Philippines. Security concerns heightened after members of the militant Al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf network (based in the southwestern part of the Philippines) captured 18 Indonesians and Malaysians in three separate ship hijackings in recent weeks. It is feared that the waters around the southern Philippines become the new Somalia.

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On 17 April 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve hot topics and economic matters such as an update on GDP growth, Bank Indonesia's new benchmark monetary tool, the palm oil sector, the coal price, the trade balance, an excise tax on plastic items, and more.

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The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects the coal price to remain stable around USD $50 per ton in the remainder of 2016. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (harga batubara acuan, abbreviated HBA), which is set (on a monthly basis) by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, rose 1.4 percent (m/m) to USD $52.32 per ton in April 2016. Since February the HBA has been climbing in three consecutive months. The last time Indonesia's benchmark coal price recorded a three-month gaining streak was in the October-December 2013 period.

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The world's number one privately-owned coal producer, US-based Peabody Energy Corp, filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday (13/04) after its debt burden became too high amid recent expansion efforts, a cancelled asset sale, and slumping coal prices. All of the miner's offices and mines will continue operations as usual during the bankruptcy process. The case of Peabody Energy is one of the world's largest ever bankruptcy cases in the commodities sector. Trading of Peabody Energy's shares has been suspended immediately.

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Having been the center of negative attention for quite some years now, Indonesia's coal mining sector has given some room for speculation that conditions will improve. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and mostly based on the average of global coal prices, rose 1.3 percent (m/m) to USD $51.62 per ton in March 2016. Although it is much too early to start speculating about a sustained rebound, the increase is remarkable as it is the first time in exactly one year that the HBA manages to rise.

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On 13 March 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the performance of Indonesian blue chip stocks, the impact of negative interest rates in the Eurozone, logistics costs, coal mining, crude palm oil, Japanese investment, and more.

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The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) advises the central government to recalculate the amount of coal required for Indonesia's 35,000 MW power plant program. According to APBI, Indonesia does not have enough coal reserves to serve as power source for this ambitious program. The program, launched by President Joko Widodo in 2015, aims to add a total of 35,000 MW to the nation's power capacity by 2019 (about 20,000 MW being coal-fired plants). PriceWaterhouseCoopers states that Indonesia may have depleted its coal reserves by the year 2033.

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As is widely known, coal is the most important energy source for the generation of electricity in Indonesia. Among the key reasons are that Indonesia has huge reserves of coal under its soils (hence it is relatively cheap to use coal, hence attracting plenty of private investment amid ever-growing electricity consumption in Indonesia over the past two decades) and efficient coal-fired power plant technology.

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Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.

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Currently, coal certainly ranks among the most interesting commodities. On the one hand, Indonesia expressed its commitment to reduce consumption of this dirty fossil fuel (that is especially used as raw material for the generation of electricity in power plants but also in various manufacturing industries such as the cement industry and textile industry) as the country seeks to become ‘carbon neutral’ by 2060 (although many doubt to what extent Indonesia is really committed to this ambition; after all, it has more immediate concerns such as the dozens of millions of Indonesians living below, and just above, the national poverty threshold).

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Over the past couple of months –essentially since touching a low in August 2020– global coal prices have surged. In January 2021 coal prices were at their strongest levels in almost two years (before experiencing a mild correction in February 2021).

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By revising Indonesian Government Regulation No. 23/2010, the Indonesian government plans to provide local coal miners more certainty by allowing an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders in the mining sector argue that this would considerably strengthen the nation’s investment climate, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.

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Only a few months after the Indonesian government had imposed a price cap on mandatory sales of local coal to Indonesia's state-owned electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) under the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme, the government now plans to revise this regulation. Coming Tuesday (31/07) a high-level meeting is to take place where decisions will be taken.

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Last week shareholders of Indonesia-based coal mining company Indo Tambangraya Megah decided to distribute USD $252 million in dividends to the company's shareholders, implying a nearly 100 percent dividend payout ratio of its full-year 2017 net income. The dividend payout is divided into USD $105 million worth of interim dividend (IDR 1,300 per share) and USD $147 million worth of final dividend (IDR 1,840 per share). Interim dividend was distributed on 21 November 2017, while the final dividend will be paid on 20 April 2018.

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Through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 19/2018 on the Procedures for Determining Benchmark Prices of Metal and Coal Sales as well as through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 1395 K/30/MEM/2018 on the Selling Price of Coal for the Electricity Supply for the Public Interest the Indonesian government confirmed a new set of rules in the coal mining sector, specifically regarding coal that is sold domestically under the domestic market obligation.

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The big Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange expect to raise their production volumes in 2018 amid rising global demand and the subsequent stronger coal price. Moreover, most local coal companies were heavily affected by bad weather in 2017 and therefore their output had been curtailed naturally, while coal prices had actually been skyrocketing since mid-2016.

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Through Trade Ministry Regulation No. 82/2017 on the Terms of Use of National Shipping and Insurance Companies for the Export and Import of Certain Goods the Indonesian government requires exporters of crude palm oil (CPO), coal and rice to use ships that are owned by local sea transport companies as well as to use domestic insurance. This regulation will come into effect, gradually, per May 2018.

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