The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 8,354 trillion (USD $664 billion) in 2014, the nation’s slowest annual growth pace since 2009, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). As such, GDP growth failed to achieve the central government’s 5.5 percentage point growth target that was set in the 2014 State Budget. Indonesia’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011 when it still posted a 6.5 percentage point growth rate (y/y). However, growth is expected to rebound from here.

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The price of rice in several Indonesian regions has risen by between 17 to 23 percent to IDR 8,500-9,000 per kilogram as rice production at the start of the year has not been able to meet rice demand. In January 2015, Indonesian rice production stood at 2 million tons, whereas demand reached 2.5 million tons. Inflation of rice is a sensitive issue in Indonesia because it jeopardizes declining poverty rates as poorer segments of Indonesian society spend over half of their total disposable income on food items, primarily rice.

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Inflation in Indonesia is expected to have eased to 7.50 percent year-on-year (y/y) in January 2015 on the back of cheaper domestic fuel prices (triggered by sliding global oil prices). The month-on-month pace (m/m) in the first month of 2015 may have tumbled to near zero percent from 2.46 percent (m/m) in December 2014. Last year, Indonesian inflation had accelerated to 8.36 percent (y/y) primarily due to the implementation of higher prices for government administered low-octane gasoline and diesel in November 2014.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo officially launched the integrated one-stop service center (in Indonesian Pelayanan Terpadu Satu Pintu, abbreviated PTSP) at the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) at the start of the week. This new service aims to smoothen and simplify licensing procedures for investment projects. From now on, investors will not need to visit various ministries or government agencies to obtain necessary permits but can simply turn to the BKPM’s one-stop service center.

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Due to sharply fallen global crude oil prices the Indonesian government announced on Friday (16/01) that prices of fuels (low-octane gasoline and diesel) will be cut by an average of 14 percent, effective from Monday (19/01). The price of gasoline will drop 13 percent to IDR 6,600 (USD $0.53) per liter and diesel by 15 percent to IDR 6,400 (USD $0.51) per liter. Lastly, the government also reduced the price of Pertamina’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 4.2 percent to IDR 129,000 per 12-kilogram-cannister.

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The Indonesian government has further reformed its decade-old fuel subsidy policy in a move to streamline - and make more structural use of - public spending. The latest change is effective from today (1 January 2015) and thus Indonesia moved a step closer to applying a market-based price mechanism. The government now uses a fixed diesel subsidy of IDR 1,000 (USD $0.08) per liter, while subsidy for low-octane gasoline is scrapped altogether (however the government will account for gasoline distribution costs outside Java, Madura and Bali).

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On Monday (08/12) the World Bank released the December edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled ‘Delivering Chance’. In the report the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia next year to 5.2 percent (y/y), from 5.6 percent (y/y) in the July edition of its flagship publication, due to weaker investment growth and sluggish exports. Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 5.1 percent (y/y), slightly below the World Bank’s previous estimate of 5.2 percent.

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The sea toll road, a maritime program initiated by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, may reduce the country’s logistics costs by 10 to 15 percent, said Secretary of the Expert Team of the National Logistics System, Nofrisel. Currently, between 18 and 22 percent of companies’ production costs in Indonesia are absorbed by logistics costs, particularly due to expensive transportation costs, hence seriously reducing competitiveness of Indonesian companies. In peer regional countries this figure is below ten percent.

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According to the central bank of Indonesia, inflation may reach around 8 percent (year-on-year) by the end of 2014 as a result of the higher subsidized fuel prices. In the early hours of Tuesday (18/11), subsidized fuel prices (gasoline and diesel) were raised by more than 30 percent in an attempt to reallocate government funds to more productive sectors as well as to curb the country’s wide current account deficit. Peaks in Indonesia’s inflation usually correlate with administered price adjustments.

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Main news headlines in Indonesia still cover the higher subsidized fuel prices implemented starting from the early hours of Tuesday (18/11). The previous evening, Indonesian President Joko Widodo had announced that prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel were to be raised by over 30 percent, immediately leading to long queues at local gas stations as well as public outcry as people’s purchasing power will diminish. Analysts and economists, however, agree that this move is correct and can lead to structurally higher GDP growth.

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There is quite some controversial material to discuss after the Constitutional Court of Indonesia (Mahkamah Konstitusi, or MK) paved the way for incumbent President Joko Widodo’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka (henceforth Gibran), to team up with Gerindra Chairman Prabowo Subianto in the presidential race.

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What marked the year 2019 for Indonesia was national politics. Although in these present times each year feels like a ‘political year’ for Indonesia – as the country’s local elections are spread out across years (and in 2020 it will be the turn of voters in various parts of the Archipelago to elect nine governors, 224 regents and 37 mayors) – the year 2019 was in fact a particularly ‘huge political year’ for Indonesia because of the (general) presidential and legislative elections that were held on 17 April 2019.

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Although the signs were there in the past couple of weeks, it still came as a surprise to us that defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto made the last-minute decision to throw his support behind Indonesian President Joko Widodo. It effectively means that his Great Indonesia Movement party (or Gerindra) – previously the biggest opposition party – has now joined Widodo’s coalition, and thereby handing Widodo a massive majority in national parliament.

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Yes, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who recently won the 2019 presidential election and will therefore guide the world’s largest Archipelago in the 2019-2024 period, said the composition of his new cabinet (which is scheduled to be inaugurated in October 2019) has been finalized. But, no, he has not mentioned any names of the future ministers.

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There was a new kid on the block in national politics ahead of Indonesia's 2014 elections. Joko Widodo (often called Jokowi), gained tremendous popularity among Indonesians when he was Governor of Jakarta (2012-2014). This popularity was based on his humble background as well as his humble behavior, his eagerness to reform existing structures and patterns, and his “pro-people” attitude. Previously, Widodo (who is an ex-furniture businessman) had been mayor of Solo (Central Java) from 2005 to 2012. His time as mayor was a success. However, he would really step into the national spotlight once he had won Jakarta’s gubernatorial election in 2012.

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Indonesia Investments carefully followed developments surrounding Indonesia’s presidential and legislative elections (which were held on Wednesday 17 April 2019). Although the official results will only be announced in late May (as the General Elections Commission, or KPU, will be busy counting all votes up to 22 May 2019) we can already draw several conclusions from these events.

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On Thursday 17 January 2019 the first debate between the two presidential pairs - (1) Joko Widodo & Ma'ruf Amin and (2) Prabowo Subianto & Sandiaga Uno - took place at Hotel Bidakara in Pancoran (South Jakarta). It is the first one of a total of five planned debates between the presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the months ahead of the legislative and presidential elections that are scheduled for 17 April 2019 (although the date of the 5th debate is yet to be determined).

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We have entered 2019, which means we have entered a huge political year with the legislative and presidential elections scheduled for 17 April 2019. Indonesia is a young democracy that is maturing – hence experiences growing pains – and where various sides are engaged in a battle to get a hold of the highest political power in Indonesia.

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On 23 September 2018 the campaign period officially started for Indonesia’s 2019 presidential election. This period runs up to 13 April 2019 (while the election is scheduled for 17 April 2019). Despite the start of the campaign period it has remained rather calm between the two opposing sides: (1) incumbent President Joko Widodo with Islamic clerk Ma’ruf Amin versus (2) Gerindra Chairman Prabowo Subianto with businessman Sandiaga Uno.

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It is finally clear which pairs will compete in Indonesia’s 2019 presidential election. On Saturday August 10th, 2018 (only hours before the deadline ended), political parties officially registered their presidential and vice-presidential candidates at the General Elections Commission (in Indonesian: Komisi Pemilihan Umum, or KPU). As was widely assumed, only two pairs will compete in the 2019 presidential election. Thus, there are also two coalitions of political parties.

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